Germany vs. Poland and Pick to Win
Date: Thursday, June 16, 2016
Where: EURO 2016 Group Stage – Group C Game 2 - Stade De France - Saint Denis, France
by Keith, Professional Soccer/Football Handicapper, Predictem
Match Odds: Germany 10/17, Draw 17/5, Poland 6/1
Moneyline: Germany -170, Draw +340, Poland +600
Over/Under Best Market: UNDER 2.5 – 22/19 (+115)
The second fixture of Group C will likely serve to a delicious collision that serves to be part of another chapter of a border rivalry series between the defending World Champions, Germany and their formidable opposition, Poland. Both teams have secured three points in their opening fixtures by way of winning their matches outright. Germany comes in off of a typically methodical German performance, dominating possession against Ukraine in route to a 2-0 win. Poland enters on a 1-0 victory against Northern Ireland but the match by no means was a walk in the park for the Polish, as feisty and resilient Northern Ireland took Poland to the final whistle.
In rivalry matches of this nature, there is all the more reason to stay off the match entirely. Conversely with Germany simply being a participant in the contest, we have reason to expect the Germans are offered at an astronomically expensive price given the fact they won as expected in their opening match. With this being considered, we won’t play chalk and risk much especially with respect for the fact that Poland is a very dangerous team that knows how to score. Let us not forget Mr. Robert Lewandowski who took the Bundesliga by storm as an attacking forward, who remains Poland’s weapon of choice in their showdown with the World Champions. The presence of this striker can make many foes fearful, for Germany it is likely just another day at the office.
For both squads, this contest will likely be the greatest challenge for both sides in this group stage. Combining this narrative with their opening victories, it is all the more likely both teams will enter this fixture with a sense of caution. For Germany, a draw plays well in to their hand, they are ahead of Poland in goal differential by a point and are aware of the fact they get the weakest team in the group Northern Ireland as the finale to their group campaign. Instead of risking it all for a win, Germany may likely employ a conservative approach to force Poland to play a better game against Ukraine than Germany will against Northern Ireland. With this consideration made, this is outcome is highly improbable. As a result of this strategy, Poland will likely feel the heat to outscore Germany if they wish to win the group or they will merrily settle for second.
No matter how this fixture is broken down, both teams simply cannot afford to lose to each other and that is why while many pundits and analysts may see this one as a high-scoring donnybrook, we would actually be surprised if there was any scoring at all. Bragging rights will likely be the only motivating factor in this contest that may cause anything outside of the realm of expectation to occur. Nevertheless we are assured that angle would only rest with Poland, as Germany has the target on their back. However, we don’t suspect bragging rights will implore these teams to risk it all for a win if they have bigger gains to acquire by playing this one passively. Thus we are calling for the draw.
Furthering our anticipation of a low scoring affair, we see tremendous value in playing on the Under 2.5 which allows more than enough breathing room to allow both parties score once in a deadlock or afford us an opportunity to buy some value on either team pulling off a narrow victory as well. Given the conservative tactics that will likely be most prevalent in this fixture, this bet offers us a fair amount of upside with limited risk. As we have said earlier in this analysis, we would be not be shocked if either team did not score at all.
Germany Recent Form
W – Ukraine 2-0 (Group) W – Hungary 2-0 (Friendly)
L – Slovakia 1-2 (Friendly)
W – Italy 4-1 (Friendly)
L – England 2-3 (Friendly)
Poland Recent Form
W – Northern Ireland 1-0 (Group)
D – Lithuania 0-0 (Friendly)
L – Netherlands 1-2 (Friendly)
W – Finland 5-0 (Friendly)
W – Serbia 1-0 (Friendly)
Keith's Prediction for the Game: Draw +340
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