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Inter Milan vs. Roma Pick

Inter Milan vs. Roma and Pick to Win
Date:Saturday, August 26th, 2017
Where: Italy Serie A – Rome, Italy
by Keith, Professional Soccer/Football Handicapper, Predictem

Match Odds: Inter Milan 2/1, Roma 13/10, Draw 11/4
Moneyline: Inter Milan +200, Roma +130, Draw +275
Over/Under Best Market: UNDER 2.5 5/4 (+120)

Italy will be the subject of attention this week as two up and coming powers of the peninsula will be squaring off in an early season donnybrook that can shape the rest of the Serie A campaign when Roma hosts Inter Milan on Saturday, August 26th, 2017. The fixture is of international appeal and features two teams that finished in the upper echelons of the table in 2016. For Roma in particular, some have scrutinized that this may finally be the year that they take that next step to truly challenge Juventus for the league hardware. In 2016, Roma was the runner-up when they finished four points behind Juve with 28 total wins on the docket. Without question, the landscape has gone under a paradigm shift as of recent but there was a point where Inter Milan was in the fold as a contender in its own right. Given the fact they enter in incendiary form, with six victories in their previous six matches. The price here on Inter Milan seems almost too good to be true.

Both teams enter off opening week victories. For Inter Milan, their win came against Fiorentina when they squashed the side by a score of 3-0. For Roma, they slipped by Atalanta by a score of 1-0. Overall both squads are not venerated by any means and generally regarded as lower tier outfits by consensus standards. By virtue of the goal difference at this juncture, Inter Milan finds itself nestled higher at the top of the table along-side their arch nemesis and cross-town adversary AC Milan. In hoping to keep up with their hated rivals, Inter Milan has their eyes set on another victory here in the second week of Serie A play.

Roma is known for a robust home pitch advantage and like many other sides we have seen across Europe and the world for that matter, Roma loves to take advantage of such an edge. Thus, they enter as the favorite on paper here though no juice is required on any side by any stretch. Given the overall analysis of the market, it is indicative that Roma is expected to win here let alone net a draw. The problem with this is that Inter Milan has surrendered just two goals on their last six victories and earned four clean sheets in the process. Such defensive prowess makes Inter Milan a threat on any pitch, anywhere.

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Given the stock of Milan in this situation, Inter has an opportunity to be a great steal at the price offered here as an outright. This is a soccer team that knocked off Chelsea and Bayern Munich in European competition. But as we have mentioned before, the price is certainly too good to be true. Therefore, the most equity here is likely in the popular choice which is Roma. While we can get Roma at home at above evens, we will take advantage. Let’s not forget we are getting a club that vied for the Serie A credentials just a year ago at a likely enhanced price. Milan coming in with such dominant performances and still being cast as a significant underdog is often a warning sign that the play is likely a trap. No market will give away a team at such a price unless the expectations are assessed accurately. It is likely that Inter has hit their ceiling and the bubble is set to burst.

Overall, the defenses should likely control the ebb and flow of this game. Thus the Under 2.5 offers tremendous equity at 5/4 odds. As a result of these two stakes in this Italian barnburner, we stand to risk 2 units for a prospective return of 2.5 units if both situations unfold in our favor.

Inter Milan Recent Form
W – Fiorentina 3-0
W– Real Betis 1-0
W– Villareal 3-1
W – Chelsea 2-1
W – Bayern Munich 2-0

Roma Recent Form
W – Atalanta 1-0
L – Celta Vigo 1-4
L – Sevilla 1-2
D – Juventus 1-1
W – Tottenham Hotspur 3-2

Keith's Prediction for the Game: ROMA (13/10) +130 and UNDER 2.5 (5/4) +120.

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