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Handicapping

Manchester City vs. Arsenal Pick

Manchester City vs. Arsenal and Pick to Win
Date:Thursday, March 1st, 2018
Where: English Premier League – Emirates Stadium, London, UK
by Keith, Professional Soccer/Football Handicapper, Predictem

Match Odds: Manchester City 19/20, Arsenal 14/5, Draw 16/5
Moneyline: Manchester City -105, Arsenal +240, Draw +280
Over/Under Best Market: OVER 3.5 (6/5) +120

Two of Soccer’s world capitals will once again jostle for football supremacy across all of England. Two cities that know each other quite well, Manchester and London. It’s the Gunners of Arsenal against the Cityzens of Manchester City. The latest edition of this cross-country metropolitan clash will take place at Emirates Stadium in the Borough of Holloway in the City of London. This contest will be a re-match of The Caribao Cup Championship Game that these two will play on Sunday in Wembley Stadium. Though the stakes are different, table positioning is on the line more so for Arsenal.

Currently, Arsenal rests in the upper sixth of the English Premier League table with 45 points. The Gunners seem to be out of the reach of the Champions League qualification quadrant as they trail Chelsea by eight points in their present spot. Overall, Arsenal trails Manchester City by 27 points in the Premier League standings. For the Mancunians, they stand alone at the top of the table with 72 points. The Cityzens have been nothing short of spectacular as they stand 16 points clear of second place Manchester United. When goal difference is factored in, the Powder Blues own a virtual 17-point lead over Manchester United. Man City has lost just one game in the Premier League this season. Manchester City were ousted from the FA Cup Fifth Round on Monday night after a questionable red card was issued resulting in Wigan Athletic sneaking by in a 1-0 win.

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Manchester City has been dominant in the English Premier League and Champions League. In their recent outings against FA Basel and Leicester City, the Powder Blues outscored opponents 9-1. A common narrative concerning City is the club getting off to a hot start and show signs of attrition once they get into mid-season form. However, Manchester City seems to be playing a higher level with each game that they play. The Powder Blues’ defense is simply splendid. Anchored by the play of goalkeeper Edison along with the numerous acquisitions in the off-season, the defense shuts their opponents down. On the other side of the pitch the attack simply knows how to generate offense at will. The leadership of Kevin De Bruyne has been instrumental in Manchester City facilitating their incendiary attacks.

Normally, when you back Arsenal at the Emirates you can expect to pay up to do so. Believe it or not, you are here as well. Manchester City is a superior team but they are offered at near evens thanks to the premium endorsed on takers to back the Gunners in Highbury. Even more so, you can expect to pay a premium to back Arsenal as a whole be that they are one of the name brand teams in all of world soccer. We will go ahead and take advantage and get the better team at the better price. Chances are if two teams of contrasting quality met in a less publicized outing, bettors would be more likely to get the truer odds. This means Arsenal would be priced friendlier and Manchester City would require extensive juice. In Over/Under Goal markets we will go ahead and call for the OVER 3.5 as scoring will likely be maximized to the offensive firepower featured in this game. At a price above evens, this would be a prudent move to offset the slight juice required to back City in the current position.

However, there is a good chance that this affair will be a one-sided one and it will be all Manchester Blue as it transpires. Ultimately here we stand to risk 2.05 units for the potential of picking up 2.2 units if both wagers land.

Manchester City Recent Form
L – Wigan Athletic 0-1
W – FC Basel 4-0
W – Leicester City 5-1
D– Burnley 1-1
W – West Bromwich Albion 3-0

Arsenal Recent Form
W– Otersund 3-0
L – Tottenham Hotspur 0-1
W – Everton 5-1
L – Swansea City 1-3
W – Chelsea 2-1

Keith's Prediction for the Game: MANCHESTER CITY 19/20 (-105) and OVER 3.5 6/5 (+120)

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