Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid and Pick to Win
Date: Saturday, May 28th
Where: Champions League Final – Milan, Italy
by Keith, Professional Soccer/Football Handicapper, Predictem
Match Odds: Real Madrid 20/13, Atletico Madrid 41/19, Draw 9/4
Moneyline: Real Madrid +160, Atletico Madrid +215, Draw +225
The Champions League Final will be an all-Madrid Derby, as arch rivals Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid will renew their inter-city rivalry on the grandest stage in Europe. These two teams have great familiarity with each other, playing in La Liga together and sporting one of the most potent rivalries in all of the football world. The most recent collision resulted in a 1-0 victory going to Atletico Madrid on Real Madrid’s home pitch. The result was incredulous but nevertheless showcased how lethal this team can truly be. Previous to this, a 1-1 stalemate was fostered between both sides on Atletico Madrid’s pitch in October. This rendition will be played at a neutral site where home pitch advantage is not a factor. The two foes will meet at the Stadio San Siro in Milan, Italy.
With much of the public leaning on Real Madrid, we are simply going to play this one from a contrarian angle and lay a typically popular and sexy pick. Real Madrid is a world football blue chip and established as one of the premier pedigree clubs. The team is cosmopolitan and features some of the most recognized names in the world, including Christiano Ronaldo, Karim Benzema and Gareth Bale. Atletico Madrid is more holistic in their personnel and they are simply a team that knows how to play good football, they have dispatched teams with sensational payrolls and players. Most notably Barcelona who features arguably the greatest player in the world in Lionel Messi. In addition, Barcelona was the defending Champions League Champion from 2015 and Atletico managed to beat them at their own game and outscore them to secure the win via the aggregate.
Messi is not the only focal point of the Barcelona attack, Atletico also had to quell the scourge of offense that could be generated by flanking midfielders, Luis Suarez and Neymar. Again these are some of the greatest players in the world and Atletico has found ways around them. Seemingly, this club is hell-bent on a win and determined to capture a title. In terms of odds, Real Madrid would be the favorite on paper as they have the lowest odds, though all are above evens. Nevertheless a breakdown of odds showcases that the market assesses a great chance that Real Madrid wins this one in regulation, despite the fact they are 0-1-1 against Atletico in their last two fixtures. As it is an often occurrence with teams like Real Madrid, backers often pay inflated prices to take back a squad with such a reputable and prestigious name.
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However, rivalry games in themselves are unpredictable. When the venue is set to take place with the highest stakes imaginable it is even more difficult to prognosticate. These two teams know each other well and with this being said, personnel, prestige and statistics can be all tossed out the window. There are many domestic affairs that have taken place in the Champions League Final in years past, but this is not just a cross-country clash, it is an inter-city rumble.
Simply put, Atletico Madrid has put together quite an impressive performance portfolio in route to the Champions League Final. This club has run a gauntlet to get where they are, dispatching arguably the world’s two best clubs in Barcelona and Bayern Munich in consecutive legs of the Champions League tournament. Real Madrid entered on an anemic victory against Manchester City, which required Real to win at home by a nail-biter to qualify. Manchester City and Wolfsburg are not clubs that can be compared to either Bayern and Barca but even with that being said, there is a great chance this affair will likely require extra time to determine a victor. Therefore we will simply stay off either side and play on the draw in regulation with this fixture likely coming down to penalties.
Real Madrid Recent Form
W – Manchester City 1-0
Atletico Madrid Recent Form
L– Bayern Munich 1-2 (Aggregate Winner 2-2)
W – Bayern Munich 1-0
W – Barcelona 2-0 (Aggregate Winner 3-2)
L - Barcelona 1-2
D– PSV 0-0 (Aggregate Winner)
Keith's Prediction for the Game: Draw 9/4 (+225)
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