Real Madrid vs. Manchester City and Pick to Win
Date: Wednesday, May 4, 2016
Where: Santiago Bernabeu, Madrid, Spain
by Keith, Professional Soccer/Football Handicapper, Predictem
Match Odds: Real Madrid 8/15, Manchester City 32/5, Draw 15/4
Moneyline: Real Madrid –187, Manchester City +640, Draw +375
The Champions League semi-final is heading to the Spanish capitol, Madrid to finish a scrappy series between England’s Manchester City and Spain’s Real Madrid. Real Madrid is a highly regarded international franchise and heavily favored entering in to this fixture with the match taking place on their home pitch. In their last encounter in Manchester, both teams drew in a 0-0 stalemate that suggests every possession will be instrumental and every goal will be valuable in this upcoming contest. The winner is set to face the winner of the Atletico Madrid and Bayern Munich leg in the Champions League final. The winner of that is dubbed the best club in Europe for 2016.
Manchester City is in the driver seat to qualify once again for the Champions League by virtue of the English Premier League. The same sentiment can be exuded for Real Madrid. Both squads currently sit third in their respective leagues. Both teams also won their groups in Champion’s League group play as well. Real Madrid secured 16 points in Group A and Man City 12 in Group D, which sent both forward to the next stage. Manchester City is the author of a stunning win to get in to the semifinal, after they shocked PSG at Etihad Stadium in a 1-0 thriller.
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Both teams have crafted a reputation that results in consistent competition for league title credentials and a sometimes superficial expectation of victory. Both Manchester City and Real Madrid have the finances behind them and they have played host to an ensemble of world-renowned players and talent. For Manchester City, Sergio Aguero, Yaya Toure and Vincent Kompany are the household names. For Real Madrid, it’s Christiano Ronaldo, Karim Benzema and Gareth Bale. The billing on paper is a heavyweight fight between two football giants.
We are going to fade the public on this one. Real Madrid is one of the name brand clubs in all of international football. Many bookmakers are playing on the public’s enamored and rosy-eyed perspective of the Spanish football giant. We have seen prop bets emerge that offer sensational odds for Ronaldo scoring and very friendly doubles and treble offers for those keen to take Real Madrid. This market is rooted entirely in perception and reaction. Many see Real Madrid at home and see a quick and easy win, especially when they have Manchester City limping in off an incredulous league-level defeat to Southampton 4-2. A 1-1 draw with Newcastle in the weeks leading up to this result served as the foundation of skepticism for many Blues backers that may have now converted to Real Madrid after the latest stumble. The fact of the matter remains, Manchester City has played better in the Champions League than they have in the English Premier League as of late.
However, Real Madrid for the win outright requires a heavy dose of juice and this often can be the prelude to a bankroll crushing loss if Real Madrid does not hold up their end of the bargain. When you back teams like Real Madrid, you often pay a hefty premium and many are willing to bite. Appetizing promotional offers are not meant to be the friends of punters, they are in fact an enemy in disguise and the fact that Real Madrid is offered in such affable terms, varnished with all the more appeal, suggests there may be a trap setting up for those opting in. Nevertheless, Real Madrid has appeared to be in exceptional form as of late. In their last six matches, they are 5-0-1, the sole draw against this very Manchester City team. Despite acclaim and consistent steam rolling in on Real Madrid, we will stay off. Manchester City’s odds are far too friendly as well and thus with a miniscule portion of the populous wagering on the draw yet again, this match may once again result in a stale tie that may require additional formalities. Both teams have been more defensive and relying on counter-attacks and thus the point proliferation has been kept to a minimum, expect similar strategy in this fixture.
Real Madrid Recent Form
W– Real Sociedad 1-0 (La Liga) D – Manchester City 1-1
W– Rayo Vallecano 3-2 (La Liga) W– Villareal 3-0 (La Liga) W– Getafe 5-1 (La Liga)
Manchester City Recent Form
L – Southampton 2-4 (English Premier League)
D – Real Madrid 0-0
W – Stoke City 4-0 (English Premier League)
D – Newcastle United 1-1 (English Premier League)
W – Chelsea 3-0
Keith's Prediction for the Game: Draw +375
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