Wolfsburg vs. Borussia Dortmund and Pick to Win
Date:Saturday, February 18th, 2017
Where: German Bundesliga 1 – Dortmund, Germany
by Keith, Professional Soccer/Football Handicapper, Predictem
Match Odds: Wolfsburg 7/1, Borussia Dortmund 2/5, Draw 4/1
Moneyline: Wolfsburg +700, Borussia Dortmund -250, Draw +400
Over/Under Best Market: NO PLAY RECOMMENDED
The Bundesliga of Germany has always been more or less a two dog fight or a race of two pedigree teams. Those two teams are Borussia Dortmund and of course the world renowned Bayern Munich. However, Wolfsburg has been a team that has always been in the mix for the third position and they have been a regular in the UEFA Champions League. If they are not Europe at the highest level, you can certainly find the Wolves in the Europa League. With Wolfsburg more or less a forgotten name in the Bundesliga, the prices here open up an opportunity to take back a qualitative wager with exceptional value.
Overall, Borussia Dortmund is a tough team to beat at home. There is no disputing this. In Dortmund’s last championship run, their home pitch was a significant contributor to helping Dortmund succeed in dethroning Bayern Munich from the throne. The stadium is a fortress, a citadel filled to the brim with raucous home pitch energy that has cultivated a reputation across Europe and the world. Nevertheless, this fortress is not impenetrable as Dortmund have been upset there before and it is not out of the realm of possibility to imagine the Wolves doing so on any given day. Overall, Dortmund has lost their previous two fixtures overall. Granted, these losses came in the UEFA Champions League tournament.
The Wolves had fared well in Europa league play so far but they have had some difficult and bitter losses in the Bundesliga. The Wolves fell by just a goal to both Cologne and the aforementioned Bayern Munich. The Wolves are overall having a down year compared to what we normally have seen from them as they own just 22 points and sit at 14th in the league table. For Dortmund, they too have taken a weird down turn as they are 4th with 34 points. For anyone wondering who is a top the table, it would be Bayern Munich as they own a commanding seven point lead with 49 points. Leipzig sits in second with 42 points.
Upon further analysis of the markets and reactions from the public, the draw yet again has the most equity. The money is heavy on Dortmund by virtue of the fact they get this one on their home pitch and given the fact they have been strong there all season long as expected. Given the name of Dortmund combined with their revered home pitch advantage, takers are willing to back them with some extravagant juice required. We will never been proponents of this behavior as it is a guaranteed way to deplete your bankroll and expose yourself to losses long-term which cannot be recovered. None of the consensus are playing the draw. With this being said, Dortmund might find themselves in a brawl here as Wolfsburg come in off the radar with something to prove. Let’s not forget Dortmund has lost two in a row and is now most vulnerable to let down takers. As we have said many times, there is no such thing as free money and the draws offers the most upside as seemingly no one wants a piece of that selection in this scenario. It’s either the implied free money with Dortmund or the longshot 7/1 which bettors may take in a cheeky regard. From an offensive standpoint, both teams are unpredictable when it comes to scoring. Therefore as a result of this, we cannot advise a fruitful play in terms of OVER/UNDER markets. We will keep this one strictly academic and focus on a draw that can certainly be attained by the Wolves playing stingy defense like they normally do. Ultimately we stand to risk a unit to net 4 units if our wager is successful.
Wolfsburg Recent Form
W – Hofferheim 2-1
L – Bayern Munich 0-1
L – Cologne 0-1
L – FC Augsburg 1-2
W – Hamburg 1-0
Borussia Dortmund Recent Form
L – Benfica 0-1
L – SV Darmstadt 98 1-2
D – Hertha Berlin 0-0
W – RB Leipzig 1-0
D – Mainz 1-1
Keith's Prediction for the Game: DRAW 4/1 (+400) and NO PLAY ON OVER/UNDER
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