Maryland Terrapins (16-6 SU, 11-7 ATS) vs. Duke Blue Devils (20-4 SU, 15-8 ATS), 1:00 p.m. EST, Saturday, February 13, 2010, Cameron Indoor Stadium, Durham, N.C. TV: CBS
by Ryno of Predictem.com
Point Spread: Maryland +10/Duke -10
What a week this is for Duke. The Blue Devils are coming
off a 64-54 hard-fought victory at North Carolina, their biggest rival in
one of the biggest rivalries in all of sports. Now, the Blue Devils have
to face their second biggest rival, the Maryland Terrapins,
on Saturday afternoon. They are at home at Cameron Indoor Stadium, where
they haven’t lost all season long (13-0), but will there be an emotional
let-down after the huge rivalry victory earlier this week? Maryland is also
coming off a huge win over North Carolina, 92-71 last Sunday at home, and
the Terps have had all week long to prepare for this game after its matchup
with Virginia got postponed because of the snow. The Terps need
to win this game as a signature win for their resume, but it may be tough
to do at Cameron Indoor.
Considering both teams are coming off wins over
North Carolina, it’s an easy way to compare how both teams are playing right
now. In Maryland’s win over UNC, Greivis Vasquez had a great game,
as he often does in big games, with 26 points and 11 assists. He made 6-of-11
from 3-point range. Eric Hayes made 4-of-5 3-pointers for 16 points.
Landon Milbourne chipped in with 15 points. The Terps shot 52 percent
from the field and 12-for-23 from 3-point range. If they shoot that well,
especially from beyond the arc, against Duke or against anyone else for
that matter, they have no chance of losing. They held UNC to 38 percent
shooting from the field and 5-for-16 on 3-pointers.
In Duke’s win over UNC, it was a defensive battle. The Blue Devils won the game despite shooting 31 percent from the field. They were 9-for-18 on 3-pointers, which was really the key to their victory. They could barely hit a shot from inside the arc but they were lighting it up from outside the arc. Jon Scheyer was 5-for-9 on 3-pointers, but just 7-for-20 overall from the field, and scored 24 points. Kyle Singler was 4-for-5 on 3-pointers and 7-for-18 from the field for 19 points. Nolan Smith chipped in with 10 points. Singler also added a team-high nine rebounds. The Blue Devils held UNC to 35 percent shooting from the field and 5-for-18 on 3-pointers.
Duke is safe right now as far as the NCAA tournament is concerned. Barring a complete collapse, the Blue Devils will be a top-3 seed. They are undefeated at home with their closest home game being a nine-point win over St. John’s on December 5. Their closest ACC home game was a 14-point win over Florida State on January 27. The Terps will have to play incredible basketball to win this game on the road, but Vasquez and the Terps are certainly capable of doing so.
Maryland is 3-2 on the road this season and 2-2 on the road in conference play. They’ve won at Florida State and Boston College and lost by two in overtime at Wake Forest. Their best win all season long is over Florida State, which isn’t that great of a win. The Terps lost all of their tough non-conference games and only came away with a victory over Indiana to show for. They really could use this win, and if not they will have to finish strong down the stretch to get an at-large bid.
Maryland is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games overall, 5-1 ATS in its last six games following an ATS win, 5-1 ATS in its last six road games, and 16-5 ATS in its last 21 ACC games. The Terps are 6-3 ATS on the road this season and 3-2 ATS as an underdog. Duke is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games, 12-3 ATS overall at home this season, and 14-8 ATS as a favorite. The Blue Devils are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games overall and 4-1 ATS in their last five ACC games. The under is 5-1 in the last six meetings between these teams at Duke and 4-0 in the last four meetings overall. The favorite is 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings between these teams and the road team is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings. Maryland is 1-3-1 ATS in its last five games against Duke.
Ryno’s Pick: Duke defends the 3 point shot very well. Without a steady dosage of jumpers from the outside, Maryland won’t have a chance to win this game. Lay the points and take Duke to cover the spread.