Oklahoma State Cowboys (13-2 6-2-1) vs. Oklahoma Sooners (9-6 4-7 ATS) Lloyd Noble Center, Norman, OK 9 PM EST Monday January 11, 2010 on ESPN
by Jason Green at Predictem.com
Point Spread: Sooners +1 / Cowboys -1
In a battle of the Sooner State tonight the Oklahoma Sooners host the Oklahoma State Cowboys. The Sooners are coming off a loss and are 0-1 in the Big 12 and the Cowboys have won 2 in a row and are 1-0 in the Big 12. The Sooners have lost 3 of their last 4 games while the Cowboys have won their last 2 games. Oklahoma has yet to lose at home this season (7-0).
This game is not vital for the Sooners, but it is important, as they are not only playing their in-state rival OSU but they will be playing behind the 8-ball in league play if they start the Big 12 season 0-2. The Cowboys have one of the best backcourts in the nation and if they win this game do not be surprised if they are back in the top 25.
This game will be won and lost in the backcourt, as each team has 3 guards that are averaging in double figures. The Sooners will have to figure out a way to score on a solid OSU defense that is only giving up an average of 61.9 ppg.
In their last game the Sooners were embarrassed getting crushed by Baylor 91-60. The Sooners played terrible on both sides of the floor, as they only shot 35.7% from the floor and they allowed Baylor to shoot 58.6%. The Sooners backcourt is legit, but they did not play any D in the game allowing Baylor to shoot 50% (10/20) from beyond the 3-pt arc. The Sooners were outscored by 14 points in the 1st half and played even worse in the 2nd half getting outscored by 16 points.
In their last game OSU laid a serious beat down on Texas Tech beating the Red Raiders 81-52. The Cowboys shot a legit 45% from the field and were 43.5% from 3-point land, but they won the game because of their defense. The Cowboys held the Red Raiders to 40% shooting from the field and Tech only shot 2/14 from beyond the 3-point arc. The Cowboys jumped out to a 17-point halftime lead and never looked back.
This season the Sooners are 7-0 at home and the Cowboys are 1-1 on the road.
OSU is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 against Big 12 teams, 17-3-1 ATS in their last 21 games overall, and 3-1-2 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.
Oklahoma is 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS loss, and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.
In their last 5 games for Oklahoma State the total has gone Under and in the last 5 games for Oklahoma the total has gone Over.
According to the Sagarin NCAA basketball ratings Oklahoma rankings State ranks 39th in the nation (83.86) and Oklahoma ranks 110th (76.01).
The Cowboys are led by G James Anderson (21.9 ppg) and he will have a big scoring game against a Sooners’ team that is giving up 72.7 ppg.
The Sooners’ big gun is G Wille Warren, who was mentioned as a possible Player of the Year candidate earlier in the year, but even though he is averaging 17.8 ppg he will struggle tonight. Warren is 6’4″ and he will have trouble getting open looks against the OSU G combo of Anderson and Obi Muonelo, who are 6″6″ and 6’5″ respectively.
The Sooners will win the battle of the boards tonight, as they feature backboard buster Tiny Gallon (11.9 ppg 8.6 rpg), who is far from tiny weighing in at 300 pounds. The only real legit inside player the Cowboys have is F Marshall Moses (10.5 ppg 9.5 rpg), but he will struggle tonight, as he gives up 2 inches and 60 pounds to Gallon.
Jason’s Pick: So the Sooners are undefeated at home and Gallon will win the inside battle, but the solid backcourt of the Cowboys will win this game, as they will play solid defense and they will score. The Cowboys will win this game and cover the spread handing the Sooners their 1st home loss of the season.