After digging into the transition data, the play here is to back the offensive efficiency of the road underdog. Bryan Bash breaks down why Siena’s field goal percentage could be the equalizer in Lawler Arena.
The Setup: Siena at Merrimack
Merrimack’s laying 4 points at home against Siena on Friday night at Lawler Arena, and this MAAC showdown looks tighter than the market realizes. Both teams sit at 18-9 overall, but the Warriors are a perfect 9-0 at home while riding a five-game winning streak. The Saints counter with an 11-5 road record and solid 9-5 ATS road performance. When you dig into the collegebasketballdata.com efficiency numbers, this isn’t your typical home-court blowout setup—it’s a defensive grind between two evenly-matched teams separated by virtually nothing in adjusted net rating.
Siena checks in at #174 in adjusted net efficiency with a -0.4 rating, while Merrimack sits at #180 with a -0.6 mark. We’re talking about a 0.2-point gap in net rating—essentially a coin flip once you account for normal variance. The Warriors boast the better defensive profile (#126 in adjusted defensive efficiency versus Siena’s #171), but the Saints hold the offensive edge (#176 versus #228). This sets up as a possession-by-possession battle in the low 60s for pace, and I’m not convinced the market fully grasps how close this matchup actually plays.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game: Siena at Merrimack
Date: Friday, February 20, 2026
Time: 8:00 PM ET
Venue: Lawler Arena
Conference: MAAC
Spread: Merrimack -4 (Bovada) / -3.5 (DraftKings)
Total: 131 (Bovada) / 132.5 (DraftKings)
Moneyline: Merrimack -165, Siena +140
Why This Number Makes Sense (or Doesn’t)
The market settled on Merrimack -4, and I understand the logic—the Warriors are undefeated at home and rolling. But when you break down the efficiency matchup, this number feels about a half-point too high. The model projects Merrimack by 3.6 after applying standard home-court advantage and a conference game boost, creating a small but real edge on Siena plus the points.
Here’s what matters: Merrimack’s adjusted offensive efficiency (#228) runs straight into Siena’s adjusted defensive efficiency (#171), creating a -2.7 offensive/defensive mismatch favoring the Saints. Flip it around, and Siena’s offense (#176) against Merrimack’s defense (#126) produces a +1.7 edge for the visitors. The pace blend projects to just 62.9 possessions—this is a rock fight, not a track meet. In games this slow and this close in efficiency, every possession magnifies, and four points represents a significant cushion.
The total sitting at 131 looks criminally low given both teams’ recent form. Siena’s averaging 74.1 points over their last 10 games, while Merrimack’s at 71.3. The model projects 135 points, creating a 4-point gap to the market number. Both teams have gone under consistently (Siena 10-17 overall, Merrimack 9-18), but recent scoring trends suggest these offenses are finding rhythm.
Siena Breakdown: The Analytical Edge
The Saints bring a balanced offensive attack led by Gavin Doty’s 14.5 points per game and Justice Shoats running the show with 5.3 assists per contest. What stands out is Siena’s rebounding advantage—they’re pulling down 34.0 boards per game compared to Merrimack’s 28.8, with a superior 30.1% offensive rebounding rate versus the Warriors’ 27.7%. That’s a 2.4-percentage-point edge in a game projected for just 63 possessions.
Siena’s 46.6% field goal shooting (#102 nationally) and 51.5% effective field goal percentage significantly outpace Merrimack’s 42.1% and 49.4% marks. The Saints also protect the ball better with just 10.3 turnovers per game (#57 nationally), though Merrimack’s nearly identical at 10.0. The offensive rating gap tells the story—115.3 for Siena (#98) versus 106.8 for Merrimack (#263). That’s an 8.5-point difference in points per 100 possessions, which matters enormously in a slow-tempo grind.
The Saints are 6-1 straight up in their last seven road games and 5-2 ATS in that stretch. They’ve won at Marist, Canisius, and Saint Peter’s recently, proving they can win hostile MAAC environments.
Merrimack Breakdown: The Counterpoint
The Warriors’ 9-0 home record and 8-1 ATS mark at Lawler Arena demands respect. They’re 14-2 in conference play, including 8-0 at home, averaging 71.6 points and allowing just 62.1 in MAAC games. That defensive profile (#126 in adjusted defensive efficiency) represents their calling card, particularly their perimeter defense allowing just 28.9% from three (#8 nationally) and 41.5% overall (#52).
Kevair Kennedy and Ernest Shelton both average 14.8 points, providing the offensive punch, while the Warriors rank #21 nationally in blocks per game (5.0) and #52 in steals (8.1). That defensive activity creates transition opportunities—Merrimack’s 253 fast break points dwarf Siena’s 150. The Warriors also get to the line at an elite 77.3% clip (#21 nationally), which matters in close games.
The recent form looks dominant—five straight wins with an average margin of 14.4 points. They’ve covered four straight and are 8-2 in their last 10 overall. The head-to-head history favors Merrimack 2-0, including a 63-59 home win earlier this season and a 64-58 victory last year.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game hinges on two critical factors: rebounding and shooting efficiency. Siena’s 5.2-rebound advantage per game could prove decisive in a 63-possession contest. The Saints’ 30.1% offensive rebounding rate creates second-chance opportunities that Merrimack’s smaller lineup (28.8 total rebounds per game) may struggle to prevent. Tasman Goodrick’s 7.8 boards per game gives Siena an interior presence the Warriors lack.
The shooting gap matters just as much. Siena’s 46.6% field goal percentage and 51.5% effective field goal mark represent legitimate advantages over Merrimack’s 42.1% and 49.4% numbers. In a slow game where possessions are precious, the team that shoots more efficiently typically wins. The Warriors’ elite perimeter defense (28.9% opponent three-point percentage) could neutralize Siena’s weak three-point shooting (30.4%, #337 nationally), but the Saints do most damage inside anyway with 940 points in the paint.
The pace factor heavily favors Siena’s style. The Saints play at a glacial 61.7 tempo (#356 nationally), while Merrimack operates at 64.1 (#310). When Siena controls tempo, they’re 11-5 in conference play with a +7.4 scoring margin. The Warriors’ defensive strength keeps games close, but their offensive limitations (#228 in adjusted offensive efficiency) become glaring against quality defensive teams.
Bash’s Best Bet
Siena +4 (-110)
I’m backing the Saints to keep this within the number and potentially steal an outright win. The efficiency data screams value on the visitor—a 0.2-point net rating gap doesn’t justify a 4-point spread, even with Merrimack’s perfect home record. Siena’s superior offensive rating, rebounding edge, and shooting efficiency give them multiple paths to cover.
The model projects Merrimack by 3.6, creating a half-point of value on Siena +4. That might not sound like much, but in a game projected for 63 possessions between two defensively sound teams, it’s significant. The Saints are 9-5 ATS on the road and have proven they can win tough conference road games. Merrimack’s 8-1 ATS home mark is impressive, but regression looms, especially against a team this evenly matched.
I’m also eyeing Over 131 as a secondary play. The model projects 135 points, and recent form supports higher scoring than these season-long totals suggest. Both teams are shooting better lately, and the head-to-head history shows 122 and 122 points in the last two meetings. Give me the points and the over in a MAAC slugfest that’s closer than the market thinks.
