LSU Tigers vs. Ole Miss Rebels Total Pick
Ole Miss Rebels (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS) vs. No. 5 LSU Tigers (4-0 SU, 2-2 ATS)
College Football Week 5
Date/Time: Saturday September 29th, 2018. 9:00PM (EST)
Where: Tiger Stadium Baton Rouge, L.A
By:Jay Horne, College Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: MISS +13/LSU -13
Over/Under Total: 58.5
The LSU Tigers moved to 4-0 last week with a 38-21 victory over Louisiana Tech. The victory moved the Tigers to the no. 5 ranking in the AP Polls and maintained their position as the biggest threat to Alabama in the SEC West. Despite the Tigers win last week, I was on the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs and the +19 points which resulted in another winning ticket. The SEC has been my specialty throughout my career and I believe we have another winner ready for this Saturday’s meeting when the Tigers host the Ole Miss Rebels inside Death Valley.
The Rebels overcame their embarrassing 62-7 beatdown at the hands of Alabama to rebound with a 38-17 victory over Kent State. The Rebels struggled early and were actually tied with the Golden Flashes at the half. However, Ole Miss’s offense took over throughout the 2nd half scoring 31 points behind the arm of quarterback senior Jordan Ta’amu who threw for 442 yards with 2 scores. The Rebels offense amassed 651 yards of total offense as they continued to prove they are one of the fastest striking scoring threats in the SEC. Ta’amu has emerged as one of the biggest individual offensive threats in the SEC and currently ranks 5th in the FBS in passing yards with 1,359 on the season. The quarterback play and pace of this Ole Miss offense is just one reason that I expect a high scoring affair this Saturday.
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LSU will score often
Despite LSU’s extremely talented defense, I think Ole Miss will have success offensively. Before I discuss that match-up, let’s take time to discuss the biggest reason this total is poised to sail over the posted 58.5 line and that is the horrendous Ole Miss defense. Somehow the Rebels defense have went from a once dynamic group to one of the worst units in America in just a few years. This year’s Rebels team ranks 121st in the FBS giving up over 500 yards per game. The pass defense is flat awful with inexperience and a depleted secondary that has been riddled with injuries. The Rebels have loss two defensive backs to season ending ACL injuries and they have some heightened depth concerns with Ken Webster nursing a hamstring injury.
The pass defense deficiencies are just one of many issues for the Rebels defense but an important one considering how often LSU has struggled to throw the football. LSU quarterback Joe Burrow currently sports a sub .500 completion percentage and has tossed just 3 touchdowns the entire year. Luckily, LSU has enough size and physical aptitude to succeed with the power running attack led by Nick Brossette. The running game has the ability to overpower this Rebel’s defensive front which I believe will happen. When it does, I really expect holes to open up down the field in the passing game. I know you may not see this on paper but this is a bad matchup for this Rebels defense. They will get lulled away with the run and as long as Burrow is decent, they will have big opportunities down the field. My bold prediction is that Burrow has his best game of the year. Then again that would not take much from a statistical point of view.
Rebels offense will not disappoint
I feel like a lot of people will compare Ole Miss’s 62-7 blowout loss to Alabama as some type of indicator of how they will move the football against LSU. I believe LSU is very close to Alabama in defensive talent and has even better talent in the secondary. However, they do not have the better pass rush and that is what caused Ta’amu to have his worst game of the season against the Crimson Tide. Once the Rebels spread this Tigers defense out, they will be able to pick up yards with the underneath routes. Running back Scottie Phillips also has all the makings to frustrate LSU’s defensive front as one of the most underrated rushers in the SEC. There are just too many weapons to expect another dud and it will not take many points to help push this total over the mark because LSU is going to have plenty of scoring opportunities.
Jay’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Take the over 58.5! (Intertops)