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~~ BIFF'S 1 PLAY - MAR. 8th ~~

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  • ~~ BIFF'S 1 PLAY - MAR. 8th ~~

    I know I got burned by 20 pts. a few days ago by betting the Under in the USD game, but just like I lost against the Spurs with the Nets and geting redemption with the Nuggets last night, I'm looking to do so again here tonight.

    When Coach Grier came to this team he stressed DEFENSE. And it showed, the Toreros had averaged about 75 ppg the last three years. They thought they needed to keep scoring with the likes of Gonzaga and St. Mary's to compete in this conference... but they never fared well. This year Grier has told them fighting fire with fire isn't working. This year he's tried water instead and it's worked as they finished 11-3 in conference play. He would know, he's the old assistant coach from Gonzaga. Once a man plays for the champions he knows how to take them down. Grier was at Gonzaga for 10 years. Look at the games against the likes of St. Mary's and Gonzaga this year. Except for the first game, those were their LOWEST scoring games all year... all hitting the Under obviously. This year is the best they've done in conference and overall in a LONG time trust me, and it's with young talent. They went 10-4 in 2003, but other than that they've been a sub .500 team for as long as I can remember... 7+ years. Grier has high energy players who don't get sloppy on defense. Another interesting stat, USD is averaging giving up 11 assists per game. The average is around the conference is 15 per game. That's a big gap after a full season!

    San Diego has been able to handle Pepperdine both times they played them in conference play, but both were close wins. Pepperdine shoots a below average 40% on the year and San Diego's defense has an above average 40% shots allowed on the year. Now if you look at their conference play you can see that string of 5 Unders earlier in the year. That's what I call "catching-up" to the public opinion. Oddsmakers were catching up to the new defensive set Grier had established. Everybody thought USD would shoot 70+ every game in conference like they always did, but it didn't happen... 5 games in a row. Well they got 72 against LMU, but LMU is a high school team.

    Here's their conference play this year...


    03/03/08 Loyola Marymount.......W 86-65------W -20------O 130
    03/01/08 Pepperdine.................W 77-73------L -13------O 142
    02/25/08 @ St. Mary's...............L 54-61------W 11------U 129
    02/23/08 @ Santa Clara............W 66-62------W 3------O 117
    02/18/08 Gonzaga.....................L 55-59------W 6------U 132
    02/16/08 Portland.....................W 78-61------ W -11------O 125
    02/11/08 @ San Francisco........W 73-62------ W -3------O 126
    02/04/08 @ Pepperdine............W 61-58------ L -4------U 146
    02/02/08 @ Loyola Marymount..W 72-48------W -9------U 130
    01/28/08 St. Mary's...................W 63-55------W 7------U 133
    01/26/08 Santa Clara................W 53-51------L -4------U 123
    01/21/08 @ Portland................ W 64-61------W 1------U 130
    01/19/08 @ Gonzaga.................L 70-80------W 17------O 132


    Now, I already made the mistake of thinking they wouldn't try and slaughter LMU again last time out. They used it as a confidence boost after that close game against Pepperdine going into the tourney which is at the JCP this year. However, I think USD knows now they need to shut down this poor shooting Pepperdine team if they want to win comfortably. Thanks to the past two Overs the line is left high once again for this game. 3 of the past 4 games at home have been over the current line of 137. One of those games against Pepperdine and the other two were against bottom feeder teams in the WCC. The last two games at home have even hit the 150 mark.

    I've learned that when oddsmakers are giving you this sort of comfy feeling about a more than likely shootout, it usually only lasts til halftime... if that. After those 5 Unders, oddsmakers had to stop the sharp betting action on the low scoring games. How did they do this... settling lines like 117 and 125 and 126. Now after that big jump and including the last two games overs, it's safe to say not many people want to touch the Under in anymore USD games this year, but that's why I like it.

    Today I got the total in this game opening at 137. An hour later the line was at 135. Sharp money pounded the Under, but since it was an early betting day, the books "money makers" started snacking on the Over all day and now I see offshore books have it at 137 again. Now I don't usually use offshore books, but my local line hasn't jumped over 136 all day so I may tonight. Plus it's still early this month and I'm not eager to be back in the red, so I thinking of a half-bet tonight. I haven't pulled the trigger yet, making sure this is my POD again.

    Thoughts and comments welcome...



    --

    March Starting Bankroll = $5,000

    March Current Bankroll = $5,400

    --


    March Past Results (4-3)

    MARCH 1st = GONZAGA BULLDOGS (BB) -6 = WIN +$250
    MARCH 2nd = NEW JERSEY NETS +5 = LOSS -$550
    MARCH 3rd = LOYOLA MARYMOUNT/SAN DIEGO - UNDER 130 = LOSS -$275
    MARCH 4th = SUNS/TRAILBLAZERS - UNDER 208 = WIN +$500
    MARCH 5th = OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS (1H) -2 = LOSS -$275
    MARCH 6th = OREGON DUCKS (BB) -5 = WIN +$250
    MARCH 7th = DENVER NUGGETS -1 = WIN +$500
    Last edited by Biff_Tannen; 03-08-2008, 08:53 PM.
    "Half of life is luck... the other half is discipline..."

  • #2
    I like this total even more. I was looking at Pepperdine's game last night and noticed that they had a totally different game plan. They are a team with a very fast pace. Dribble down and shoot kind of offense and defense. Last night they only got 55 possessions and got a win over Portland as a dog. That's a solid 20 possessions under their season average. Now going up against a team that is solid on defense like USD, you think they'd say lets go dribble and shoot again cause it hasn't worked in the past? No I think this will be a grinder from start to finish. Each team looking for good shots on each possession. I hope I'm right this time.

    I was leaning towards UTEP, but I'm rolling with this instead... I'm putting my hand back on the stove once again tonight fellas. Tail at your own risk... Good Luck. :thumbs:



    MARCH 8th = PEPPERDINE/SAN DIEGO - UNDER 137


    *RISKING $275 to win $250
    Last edited by Biff_Tannen; 03-08-2008, 09:20 PM.
    "Half of life is luck... the other half is discipline..."

    Comment


    • #3
      GL tonight Biff
      Overall Records


      Each play is to win the # of units posted unless it's a dog then I'm betting that amount.

      Comment


      • #4
        San Diego is definitely on your most popular pick list.

        I'm tailing as usual.

        Go Bricks :cheer:

        Comment


        • #5
          Thanks wsox! :thumbs:

          Almost... WCC and Pac10 are really the only two conference I follow daily. Mainly WCC... I like San Diego because the were so underrated this year. Hopefully they don't do me wrong tonight and keep Pepperdine under 60. :thumbs:
          "Half of life is luck... the other half is discipline..."

          Comment


          • #6
            Biff,

            Thanks for your insight. Your "one-play per day" system has gotten me back on track. I don't necessarily tail each of your picks, but the philosophy is the way to go. I used to think that the more plays the more chances to win. As you know, this usually means the more chances to LOSE.

            NIU Murph

            P.S. I did tail this play and you earned me $100 tonight. Thanks. :beer2:

            Comment


            • #7
              Murph... the way to win is definitely to limit your plays. Glad I could help ya out brother. :thumbs:


              As for me... I got some nice redemption. As long as you don't make the same mistake over and over, you're bound to make a few bucks in this business.

              --

              March Starting Bankroll = $5,000

              March Current Bankroll = $5,650

              --


              March Past Results (5-3)

              MARCH 1st = GONZAGA BULLDOGS (BB) -6 = WIN +$250
              MARCH 2nd = NEW JERSEY NETS +5 = LOSS -$550
              MARCH 3rd = LOYOLA MARYMOUNT/SAN DIEGO - UNDER 130 = LOSS -$275
              MARCH 4th = SUNS/TRAILBLAZERS - UNDER 208 = WIN +$500
              MARCH 5th = OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS (1H) -2 = LOSS -$275
              MARCH 6th = OREGON DUCKS (BB) -5 = WIN +$250
              MARCH 7th = DENVER NUGGETS -1 = WIN +$500
              MARCH 8th = PEPPERDINE/SAN DIEGO - UNDER 137 = WIN +$250
              "Half of life is luck... the other half is discipline..."

              Comment


              • #8
                It's a hard lesson for an action junkie like me but I'm learning. This board has changed my betting style and when I want more action I tail a good capper like yourself. Haven't bet a parlay/Teaser in over month.

                Nice work on the under tonight.

                You've been looking forward to the baseball season. Is that because you cap it better or just enjoy the sport more?

                Comment


                • #9
                  Nice job Biff. GL today with your pics!

                  :thumbs:

                  Comment

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