Championship Games and Bowls

[RBD]

The Sooners scored a TD on both of their first two possessions, and then . . . nothing until their final possession of the game.

I'm betting HC Venables doesn't make it through next season without getting fired.
That's if they don't dump him before the season starts.
A 6-7 record in two of three years does not cut it at a major program. Or even a mediocre one.

Three times today Oklahoma needed one yard.
Three times Venables ran a vanilla play straight up the middle.
Three times they were stopped.
I'm pretty sure that if they had another three similar situations he'd run the same play another three times.
With the same results.

And if given a seventh chance at it he'd run the play again, thinking, "They won't be expecting it this time."

I bought Texas Tech in the FFF spot mentioned in the post above. Sticking with what's working until it doesn't.

TT -2'

Update: it looks like Vandy will cover as a WF1 Fav.
If they do, it makes that play 20-10 the last 2 years and 5-2 this season. That's a combined 25-12, a little over 67%.
And like I always say, anything over 58% is good enough to get my money.
Next up Connecticut, early game tomorrow morning.

Open plays:
TT - 2'
Conn +3, -115

[RBD]

Recap: 0-1, lost with Texas Tech.
Bowl record: 2-1

Short on time, have to make this quick.
Have Connecticut today, they qualify for WF1 (5-2 in Bowls) and WF2 (6-3 in Bowls.)
Matches (when both say the same play) are 1-0 in Bowls.

Also taking BC today.
Qualifies for WF1, WF2 and WFNP (1-0 in bowls.)
This is the second time all three said the same game, first was UNLV. Triple match like today was 2-0 last year.


Other plays that qualify for WF1 today are (play ON teams):
Colorado State, East Carolina, BYU.

Other spots that qualify for WF2 today:
East Carolina, La Tech.

Have a match between the two on East Carolina, may add it later after seeing how this morning's match goes.

Adding BC +3'

[RBD]

Looked at the site for my bc/nebraska write up didn't see it.
Checked my Slack chat - I set it aside for final edit and with the holidays forgot to send it in!

Couple minutes late now, just kicked off, but here it is anyway.

BC vs Nebraska


Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Saturday, December 28th 9:00 a.m. PST

Before I get to my pick for today's article, here's an update on my pending Bowl plays.

Rutgers/K St, 12/26
K St, wait to buy, was at -7, still - 7.
Still waiting.

Oklahoma, 12/27
I have a really Strong Bowl system on this game (Play #7, 12-6, 67%, 17 years worth of data) but have a really bad number on it at -8'.
Since the time I made my bet, TWENTY-FIVE Sooners have announced they're leaving for the transfer portal, including their starting QB.
Navy, being a military academy, has zero players transferring and no significant injuries.
The opening -8' I bought is now down to -3.
Ugh X 10.

South Carolina
I got the - nope, not saying that word - let's just say the "Carolinians" at -9', and that's where the line's still at.

Mississippi, 1/2/2025
I got the Rebels at - 14, - 120, no real line change, -14' today.

Next up, BC, on 12/28.
The line opened Nebraska -3' and hasn't changed.

BC is 7-5 SU, 8-4 ATS, 3-2 ATS away.
Neb is 6-6 SU, 6-4-2 ATS, 2-2- away.

Nebraska has slight edges in ranking and SOS.
BC has the edge in points scored and rushing offense (the category I rate the highest in Bowl handicapping) with a 176 per game average against 130 for Nebraska.
I also like the BC edge in turnover margin, a +9 differential. Tight game, small spread, turnovers usually make the difference.
But my main reasons for going with the Eagles come from my unique handicapping methods for choosing WF's (Wrong Favs.)
I'm using three different ones for the Bowls.

WFNP, record 16-7, 69% over the last 3 years, 1-0 this year.

WF1, 20-10, 67%, last 2 years, 2-2 this year.

WF2, 19-10, 65%, 2 years, 2-2 this year.

BC qualifies in all three.
And, when I get a match like this, when all three say take the same team, it was 2-0 coming into this season. I had the same play earlier this year when all three said take UNLV. I used it for my first forum Bowl pick and banked a winner when the Rebels won 24-13.


Other notes:

Boston College closed out the season strong by winning three of their last four including wins over Syracuse, North Carolina, and Pittsburgh, the only loss coming against #14 SMU.

Nebraska dropped five of their last six, including losses to #4 Ohio State and #16 Indiana, the only win coming against 5-7 Wisconsin.

Nebraska head coach Matt Ruhle has a Bowl record of 1-3, a .250 win percentage.

BC head coach Bill O'Brien is 0-0.

Transfer portal/opt-outs gives a distinct advantage to BC. By current day standards the Eagles are relatively untouched while Nebraska suffered heavy losses at key positions. Yes, BC QB Castellanos is in the portal but he was benched for the last three games anyway, replaced by Grayson James.
James lost in his first start against #14 SMU but led the Eagles to wins in their last two games, putting up 41 points and 34 points, including hitting 20 of 28 for 253 yards and two TDS, zero INT's in the season finale.

When to Buy Recommendation

I don't see Nebraska money coming in and pushing this line any higher.
Getting better than a field goal in what I expect will be a tight game (with BC having a really good shot at winning SU) says, "Take the points" in this one.

BC +3'

[RBD]

Recap: 1-1
Record: 3-2

Review: Got a good performance from the Connecticut offense for a W.
Boston College?
Four times they went for it on fourth down instead of kicking a field goal.
Four times they failed. And I lose the game by a point and a half.

Can't say it was unexpected considering head coach O'Brien only kicked five field goals the entire season. Five.
Three solid systems with excellent W %'s, and a fourth counting when I get a match between all three, go down.
Triple ugh.

Next play I'm going to use East Carolina.
WF1 (6-3 now) and WF2 (7-4 now) both say take East Carolina.
When I get a match between the two, 5-3, including this year's loan match, South Florida.

E Car +7'

[RBD]

Updates:
Some bowl records:
Favs 14 Dogs 15 Push 2 (no edge)
Ov 18 Un 13 (slight edge for Overs)

I have FF Favs at 3-2, slight edge for the new Favs (Wash and Baylor qualify today)

My stuff:
WFNP 2-1-1 (Louis qualifies today)
WF1 8-4 (LSU qualifies today)
WF2 8-5 (Louis qualifies today)
M/M WFNP/WF2 (match, both have the same WF) 0-2 this year

Good stats on plays ON any of the three WF systems today but gut feel - I don't like any of them.
Gotta have action though, will add something later.

Good luck on your plays today.

[RBD]

Recap: 1-0
Record: 4-2

Review: got a win with my last pick, East Carolina.
4-2 looks good but it's not when you consider where it should be - much better.
Both WF spots won yesterday and I didn't use either.

Here's what I have now:
WFNP 3-1-1
WF1 9-4 (Oregon qualifies today)
WF2 9-5
I wrote about those three plays in my first college football article at the beginning of the regular season.
Coming into this year they were:
WFNP 16-7
WF1 20-10
WF2 19-10
Solid numbers all around and it's continued this year.
But because of losses on some of my other Bowl season systems (0-3 on my article picks) I backed off playing more games this season.
From now to the last game played I'm taking the thinking out of it - if it qualifies, I play it.

Starting with today.
Ohio State's up to -2' with extra juice being added to the Fav.
I'll wait to buy the Ducks as I expect to get a full FG by kickoff. Seems most people think Oregon's win earlier this season over the Buckeyes was a fluke and paybacks are coming.

Side note - we now have a Flip-Flop Fav in N. Dame/Georgia. I have the record on new Favs at 5-2.
Might be off buy a game if anyone wants to check, but here's what my chart show:
Memphis, Iowa State, UNLV, USF, LSU covered as new Favs, Texas Tech and Washington lost.
Right now I like Notre Dame anyway tonight, that 5-2 record may make me add them later, depending on how I feel after the Ohio State game with Oregon.

Update: A little over an hour left until game time, line still has extra juice on the -2'. If it doesn't get to +3 by kickoff I'll lay the extra 10 cents to get the FG.

[RBD]

Recap: 0-1 Record: 4-3
Review: Ducks loss is likely my last play this season.
One of the reasons I do okay during the regular season is because of got so many games to choose from on a Saturday. Fewer games on this late means fewer choices.

In one of my next columns I'll do a full accounting update on college football, articles and the forum, as well as my update for December accounting.