https://www.predictem.com/forums/ Share your NBA and WNBA Basketball picks and analysis with others in our quest to beat the bookie! en Tue, 04 Aug 2026 17:04:42 GMT vBulletin 60 https://www.predictem.com/forums/images/misc/rss.png https://www.predictem.com/forums/ https://www.predictem.com/forums/nba-basketball-wnba/550611-a-plum-prop-for-monday-aug-3 Tue, 04 Aug 2026 00:21:55 GMT Prop record: 0-1, -$112

Review:
I took the PRA Under prop for Reese in my last play, in part because I just don't like her.
It was a close miss due to three tip backs.

When you play an Under prop for PRA the worst thing can happen are tip backs.
A basket is two points obviously, rebounds one point.
What you don't want is the player you took the Under on to get a rebound under the basket that she puts right back in because it's a quick three points.
You expect one or two of them but Reese had three so that was nine points on just those three plays.
(And I like her even less now.)


Today, game one for Kelsey Plum and her new team, Phoenix.
Gift line from the books at 1' three pointers -115.
KP averaged 6.5 three point attempts per game in June.
Here's her attempts, last six games:
6, 3, 9, 11, 4, 7.

She'll get at least 4-5 tonight and she should easily make two of them.

I think the Mercury fans are going to like their newest acquisition.

My play:
Plum Ov 1' three pointers -115]]> NBA Basketball - WNBA Picks RBD https://www.predictem.com/forums/nba-basketball-wnba/550611-a-plum-prop-for-monday-aug-3 https://www.predictem.com/forums/nba-basketball-wnba/550603-wnba-play-for-sunday-aug-2 Sun, 02 Aug 2026 16:33:17 GMT
It's a prime matchup today as the visiting Caitlin's take on Napheesa "Fee" Collier and the Lynx.
We get the number one offense (Indiana) taking on the number two defense (Minnesota.)

At first glance, the Lynx look to be red hot, coming in as winners of nine straight.
But like I always say, dig deeper, don't just glance at the surface. And if you do dig deeper for a closer look you'll find that ALL nine wins have come against teams with losing records, including five to the dregs of the league, the three teams with the worst records: Seattle, Connecticut, and Toronto.

Indiana comes in on a five game W streak.
Like the Lynx, most of those wins came against teams with losing records, but they do have a quality win against New York mixed in there.

I'm riding with the Caitlin's but not loving my pick.
Not due to any aspect of the stats and reasons for the pick itself, but because I like choice.
Give me multiple plays to choose from and I have a higher percentage of picking a winner. But today, I only have one option available from the handicapping models I use.

WF1 says Minnesota is the Wrong Favorite today; take Indiana.
WF1 has a record of just 5-6 on Rd teams, like the Caitlin's today.

So why am I buying a play with a 5-6 losing record?
Because of the team specific stats.

Three times this season Indiana has been in the WF1 spot as the team that should have been made a Favorite.
Their record is 2-1.

Minnesota has been the team my stats said should not be the Favorite in just one game this season.
And, they lost the game SU.

Using team specific numbers I have a 3-1 edge.
And since most of my models are kicking out at around .500 this season it's not a stretch to look for this one to go to 6-6.

The game opened at Minnesota -6'.
The current number is -5'.

Straight up, Indiana is 8-5, so no worries about them playing on the Rd today.
That's offset though by Minnesota's 11-4 record at home.
But I'm not betting SU and the ATS numbers work in my favor.
Indiana stays the same at 8-5 ATS, but I get a nice edge Fading the Lynx who are just 5-10 ATS at home, a 67% edge.

Indiana has been a Dog just seven times this season and they have a winning record at 4-3.
Two of the losses came in back-to-back games against one of the best teams in the league, fifth place Atlanta. The other loss was to NY.

This is the first time these two have played each other this year so there's no head-to-head data to look at.
They split last season, going 2-2 both SU and ATS.

Injuries of note - Clark and Boston are both listed as day-to-day, but expected to play.

The big news is on the Minnesota side where one of the league's best players, Napheesa Collier, is finally back in the lineup.
That's not good news for Indiana backers as the Lynx are 3-0 since her return.
On the flip side of the coin though the three wins have come against Toronto and Seattle, two of the three worst teams in the league.

My play:
Indiana +5'

Recap: 1-0
Record: 23-20
Review:
My last pick was Chicago team total over 90'.

Q1: They score 24 points.
Extrapolates out to 96.
I'm ahead of the pace that I need.

Q2: They score just 16 points.
They're 2 for 15 for three pointers.
They're on pace to score 80, 11 points fewer than I need. I'm in trouble. I'm going to need them to average 25 points over the next two quarters.
Slim chance of that happening.

Q3: They put up 21.
With 61 points scored I need a 30 point quarter, rare in the WNBA.
With quarters of 24, 16, and 21 it looks like I'll need overtime.

Q4: 34 points.

NEXT!!!]]> NBA Basketball - WNBA Picks RBD https://www.predictem.com/forums/nba-basketball-wnba/550603-wnba-play-for-sunday-aug-2 https://www.predictem.com/forums/nba-basketball-wnba/550592-wnba-thursday Thu, 30 Jul 2026 19:48:27 GMT Minnesota -12 2* GL
GL]]> NBA Basketball - WNBA Picks BoilerBacker https://www.predictem.com/forums/nba-basketball-wnba/550592-wnba-thursday https://www.predictem.com/forums/nba-basketball-wnba/550589-wnba-wednesday Wed, 29 Jul 2026 20:55:07 GMT Atlanta -1.5 2* GL
GL]]> NBA Basketball - WNBA Picks BoilerBacker https://www.predictem.com/forums/nba-basketball-wnba/550589-wnba-wednesday https://www.predictem.com/forums/nba-basketball-wnba/550587-stat-to-consider-for-wnba-today Wed, 29 Jul 2026 16:32:52 GMT In the Tuesday and Wednesday games last year Overs were 4-2, which added to my confidence on taking the Over last night on the Minnesota game.
And . . . ALL five games last night went Over.

I was hoping one of my models kicked out and play on one of the night's two games but, no..

Just sharing the Ov/Un stat in case anyone is looking at an Under tonight.]]> NBA Basketball - WNBA Picks RBD https://www.predictem.com/forums/nba-basketball-wnba/550587-stat-to-consider-for-wnba-today https://www.predictem.com/forums/nba-basketball-wnba/550553-early-buy-notice-for-monday-july-20 Mon, 20 Jul 2026 03:50:56 GMT NBA Basketball - WNBA Picks RBD https://www.predictem.com/forums/nba-basketball-wnba/550553-early-buy-notice-for-monday-july-20 https://www.predictem.com/forums/nba-basketball-wnba/550536-wnba-wednesday Wed, 15 Jul 2026 22:29:19 GMT Golden State - Indiana under 166.5 2* GL
GL]]> NBA Basketball - WNBA Picks BoilerBacker https://www.predictem.com/forums/nba-basketball-wnba/550536-wnba-wednesday https://www.predictem.com/forums/nba-basketball-wnba/550530-early-buy-notice-for-sunday-7-12 Sun, 12 Jul 2026 01:12:23 GMT The Ace's Saturday game just ended and the Sunday lines are up.

181' is already up to 182' and that's the number I grabbed it at.
Full info on this B2B Over bet in my article tomorrow morning.]]> NBA Basketball - WNBA Picks RBD https://www.predictem.com/forums/nba-basketball-wnba/550530-early-buy-notice-for-sunday-7-12 https://www.predictem.com/forums/nba-basketball-wnba/550521-wnba-thursday Thu, 09 Jul 2026 22:05:24 GMT Atlanta -11.5 -115 2* GL
GL]]> NBA Basketball - WNBA Picks BoilerBacker https://www.predictem.com/forums/nba-basketball-wnba/550521-wnba-thursday https://www.predictem.com/forums/nba-basketball-wnba/550518-wnba-wednesday Wed, 08 Jul 2026 22:46:41 GMT Minnesota - Connecticut under 166.5 2* GL
GL]]> NBA Basketball - WNBA Picks BoilerBacker https://www.predictem.com/forums/nba-basketball-wnba/550518-wnba-wednesday https://www.predictem.com/forums/nba-basketball-wnba/550514-early-buy-notice-for-thursday-7-9 Wed, 08 Jul 2026 14:01:30 GMT
The Over in this spot is 4-1.
In my article for tomorrow I'll have a full write up with stats for this play over the last three seasons. I'm putting this in the Forum today because while doing my handicapping this morning I asked myself, "What was the line movement like on the previous five spots this year? Are sports better starting to catch on to this play? I've been writing and talking about it for three seasons now. So I decided to take a look at the line movements on the first five this year.

Four of the five games have seen the opening number rise anywhere from as many as 2 to 5 points. Whether it's because the public is catching on or not is irrelevant - if you going to play the game over you want to buy the opening number.

And, a note of importance - the only game that didn't see the number go up was the Liberty playing on Monday May 25th after playing Sunday the 24th.
That one opened at 176' and dropped to 172'.

And here's why it's important - it's also the only loss on the 4-1 record this year.

That doesn't mean history will repeat, but if we have a Game Two of B2B's that sees the number drop you may want to look at other factors before betting, or lowering your wager.
Or you may not want to do anything different, but it is important to have this information before putting your money out.

In that game New York was missing three key players - Sabrina, Laney Hamilton, and Fiebich (or Fiebitch, if you used her on a prop bet and she lost.)

I'm off to shop the books now and buying the best number I can get, anticipating it'll only go up before tomorrow.

Update #1: Okay, this one's a little trickier than most games. Here's why - there are three games on tomorrow night's schedule. Two of them have lines up already, one does not.
Guess which one - yup, the Fever at the Mercury.
Why?
Because of Caitlin. Due to her back injury she's been a day-to-day game time decision. Since she was mugged by multiple Mercury players back on June 24th she's missed both Indiana games (both games won by the Fever.)

So here's the problem - if she plays tonight, there's no way she'll play two nights in a row. So the books are holding off until they get more information.

Two minor shops offered it at 184' but both have taken it down.

Incidentally, tomorrow night's game is also against Phoenix.
This means there's the chance that Clark-hating Fever head coach White will sit Caitlin tonight so she can throw her to the dogs again tomorrow night against the Mercury.
I'll be monitoring this situation and posting updates.]]> NBA Basketball - WNBA Picks RBD https://www.predictem.com/forums/nba-basketball-wnba/550514-early-buy-notice-for-thursday-7-9