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  • TheBeholdah
    started a topic fading the public

    fading the public

    figured i'd post this here, I was thinking....if you find all the games that the public is on 65% or more, and put 50 on the other side of all the games for a whole year, wouldnt you come out on top? obviously there is no right answer and anything can happen, but the public is wrong so much that i would think it would be a great investment. let me know what you guys think, im sure people have talked about doing that but i dont know anyone who actually has tried that.
    Last edited by TheBeholdah; 03-21-2007, 11:35 AM.

  • Daws1089
    replied
    i used to run a system for nfl games. If you tease the opposite of all the teams being bet at 65% and over it hit at over 70% for 2 straight seasons. I dont have the hard evidence because my computer recently crashed, but i tracked it and recorded the plays for those 2 seasons.

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  • Skinsfan
    replied
    Tonight, if you had blindly faded the "public" on any NBA play over 60% on one side (based on sportsbook.com), you would have played:

    Sacremento +14 (LOSS)
    Indiana +2 (WIN)
    Toronto -3 (WIN)
    Philly -5 (WIN)
    Boston +9 (LOSS)
    Cleveland -11 (WIN)
    Detroit +6 (WIN)
    3 other games in progress

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  • homedawg
    replied
    Originally posted by V3r1f13d View Post
    How anyone here doesn't consider themselves to be a part of the public baffles me.

    :conf:

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  • Underdog88
    replied
    Originally posted by Stifler's Mom View Post
    Plus, use the public percentage and line moves to look for reasons WHY plays look too easy to the public, yet the line may be holding steady or moving opposite the public.

    :uhu: I try to set my own lines before see them, & look for reasons as to why they may have added/less value. In the past I relied on fading the public a bit too much, like JoePa said you still gotta call em like you see em

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  • V3r1f13d
    replied
    How anyone here doesn't consider themselves to be a part of the public baffles me.

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  • Stifler's Mom
    replied
    Originally posted by homedawg View Post
    take a GOOD look at what the BOOKS do when they are gettin' hit dat hard....


    :beerbang:
    Couldn't have said it better myself.

    Plus, use the public percentage and line moves to look for reasons WHY plays look too easy to the public, yet the line may be holding steady or moving opposite the public.

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  • snowman
    replied
    prime example, the public was all over texas a&m. memphis gets there

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  • BoKnows
    replied
    Originally posted by Caesar View Post
    Everytime I have used the public majority as a factor in my capping (just saying when I have), it usually results in a loss for me...so I don't even look it up if I can avoid it.

    Murphy's Law in action for you!The gambling gods are smarter than the public!

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  • Larry
    replied
    Originally posted by Skinsfan View Post
    As a general rule of thumb, I fade masterl
    And QuickNick:beer2:

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  • Skinsfan
    replied
    As a general rule of thumb, I fade masterl

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  • Caesar
    replied
    Everytime I have used the public majority as a factor in my capping (just saying when I have), it usually results in a loss for me...so I don't even look it up if I can avoid it.

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  • FearTheRaven
    replied
    What you want to do is check out lines that the public is a heavy consensus on and the line swings the other way. Preferably low spread games.

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  • homedawg
    replied
    take a GOOD look at what the BOOKS do when they are gettin' hit dat hard....


    :beerbang:

    Leave a comment:


  • Kevin
    replied
    It'd work for a profit when you get into the 70%+ range. Im almost sure of it. (with nba and nfl)

    Not sure about college.

    Also, you'd need a fat bankroll to sustain periods of downtimes. Lotsa highs and lows in that I'd think. (good days and bad)

    Leave a comment:

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