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nfl week three

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  • nfl week three

    Best Bets (1-2)(-3.60 units)
    Strong Plays (3-3)(-0.60 units)
    Regular Plays (3-5)(-2.50 units)

    Overall (7-10)(-6.70 units)

    Already talked about what a horrible week I had in week two. I am going to take Patriots coach Bill Belichick’s line speaking at his press conference this week when asked about getting caught spying when he said “The past is the past and we are not going to talk about it” Here are my picks for week three. I am getting on these early as I feel some lines will move against me…they usually do when I wait.

    San Francisco +9 vs Pittsburgh (best bet)…………….The steelers just look unbeatable, don’t they? I live in Steeler country, but I am a dolphins fan, and this is all I hear. Even though they are 2-0, I don’t think they have looked as great as what the scoreboard says. They have outscored their opponents 60-10, that is impressive, but look who they beat. Their stats are not as lopsided as their scores have been. The 49ers are 2-0 as well, and maybe going unnoticed a little bit. I think they are a team to watch out for this year. I just don’t see a blowout in this game. I think Pittsburgh finds a way to win this game in the fourth quarter, but niners will play them tough the whole game. This looks like a 23-20 or 20-17 type of game to me.

    Buffalo +16.5 vs New England (best bet)…………..I am going against another team with my second best bet the looks similar to the Steelers in that they seem unbeatable right now. Buffalo’s defense keeps them in most games, it is their offense that is the problem. There is no way their QB and offense is as bad as it has looked so far this year. Their defense is getting worn down late and it is costing them. They should have beat Denver and played Pittsburgh pretty well. The Patriots played with a chip on their should last week and mangled San Diego. I look for a huge letdown this week. After getting caught cheating and getting hammered by the press all week, they had to come out and face San Diego on national TV and did a number on them. Now they play the 0-2, offensively challenged Bills. How could they not have a letdown? I love the Bills defense and getting over two touchdowns in this spot. I like this game as much as I could like a game. Very solid pick.

    NY Jets -3 vs Miami (strong play)………..I am getting this because it will at least go to 3.5. I am a Miami Dolphins. I am a depressed Miami Dolphins fan. My/our season is over. Trent Green is horrible. Sure he will get his 200-250 yards passing a game, but he will also be involved in 2 or 3 turnovers nearly every game as well. I think Cam Cameron has his work cut out for him. I have to question him already. Ronnie Brown came out in the third quarter vs Dallas as led a nice drive down the field and then he barely played the rest of the game. I don’t understand that at all. I think Cameron wants Green to throw. He wants to prove to everybody that trading for Green was a good move. His pride/ego might get in the way of the dolphins having a decent year. Sure the fish have a great defense (I think), but they have been on the field way too much already and that wears them down. I am even wondering if the Dolphins defense might be a little over rated at this point. On the other side of the field, I cannot brag up the Jets too much either as they are 0-2 and in the same boat as Miami. Two big reasons why I am on the Jets. Number one is the Jets are at home and Miami is a considerably worse team on the road than at home and number two is the Jets have always been a pain in the Dolphins rear ends, even back when Miami was good and the Jets sucked. Sure I could be wrong, but I see a ton of value in laying only 3. I would lay as high as 6.5 in this game, but I have it locked in at three.

    Denver -3 vs Jacksonville (strong play)………………This is another game I want to get now in case it goes to 3.5 as Denver could easily win this one by exactly three. Some people say Denver is over rated and the worst 2-0 team in the AFC. Some say the Jags are much better than what they have shown. I am sure a little of both are true. Neither team was impressive in week two. The Jags were upset in week one at home and Denver got lucky to win at Buffalo. Bottom line is the Broncos are always tough at home and how often are you going to get them only laying a field goal unless they are playing a powerhouse team. The Jags are not bad, but they are not a powerhouse. Denver is very lucky to be 2-0, they could easily be 0-2. They have way to much talent to keep getting lucky. Thanks to the tremendous home field advantage at Mile High, I see the broncos finally getting a win that they don’t have to pull out in the final seconds, this might not even be close, but with the way they have played close games this year, I figured I better lock in that three before I have to add a hook to the end of it.

    Philadelphia -6.5 vs Detroit (regular play)………………I must be insane here. You have an 0-2 team who looks really bad giving almost a touchdown to a team who is 2-0 and playing with a lot of confidence. When you have a situation like this, almost always the team with the worst record in the winner. One of two things will happen. Either the Lions will continue to surprised and win this game outright or the Eagles will rip them apart. I will go with the latter of the two. Smart money will be on the Eagles. Philly 42-17.

    Washington -3.5 vs Giants (regular play)…………….I am starting to believe in this Washington team, of course that is after going against them has costs me two losses. The skins are playing well and whether or not it is true, they think they can win this division. The Giants are a mess. I have said that before and I will say it all season long. Sure QB Manning will have a few great games and they will beat somebody they are not supposed to, but on a whole, they suck and are in trouble this year. Skins only laying 3.5 seems like a pretty sweet deal to me. I am on it.

    This is probably the earliest (on a Tuesday) I have ever made my NFL picks. For some reason even after my nightmare last week, I feel pretty good about these. If it works, you better believe I will be back early again next week.

    I will probably be back Sunday to add that Sunday night game, can’t get a feel for it yet. I am hoping the line goes up and I might jump the Cowboys. The Monday night game scares me to death. Tennessee is one of those teams I like to bet one, but they are playing a dangerous 0-2 Saints team at home on MNF. We all know what the Saints did last year on MNF when they were up for the game. The Saints can’t be that bad can they? I don’t think so.

    Good Luck Everybody!!

  • #2
    likes your bills play. usually when a fave gets up around 14 its letdown city. but with the way ne is playing who knows... public is about 57% on tenn and will be interesting to see where this line goes. i think this game sets up nicely for the saints and theyre coming out party at home on natl tv.