Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Week 12

Collapse
X
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Week 12

    Almost didn't make it to the book today. Woke up with my back locked up, but a week is too important to miss .

    Updated Record: 7-5 on picks, 5-3 on leans, 2-1 money lines.

    Busy week so I didn't get much time to research, but here they are:


    Browns Money Line -520 vs. Dolphins
    I shouldn't even really mention this pick cuz of the heavy vig, but I threw it into a parlay to beef up the payout. Too much value to the dolphins when the Browns have been pretty awful up until the last 2 weeks. The way Buffalo punished them last week makes me think that Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt will have their day with them. Now that Miami's 5 game covering streak is over, it's time for them to lose a few.

    New England -6 vs. Dallas
    The Patriots offense is severely lacking in weapons. Plus Sanu is out and Dorsett is recovering from a concussion but might still play. Dallas tends to be a public team due to their fan base, and them catching 6 with a really good offense and stars on the defense makes me think most average Joes are taking the boys plus nearly a TD. Brady should be able to move the ball against that defense that allowed the Lions and their backup QB to score on them all game last week.

    Bengals +6.5 vs. Steelers
    The Bengals are really bad, but Pittsburgh is missing some players off suspension and injuries. No Pouncey, Juju, or James Conner. It's a division game, and Rudolph has been mediocre at best. I think it's a close, low scoring game and I'll take the points.

    Broncos +4 vs. Buffalo
    The Broncos have been playing some good ball lately, and kept mostly every game pretty close. Two good defenses. I like Philip Lindsay and Royce Freeman in this game, along with Noah Vant who has stepped in pretty well after the Sanders trade.

    Jacksonville / Tennessee OVER 41.5
    System Play.



    Leans:

    Green Bay / San Francisco OVER 47.5
    Surprisingly, San Fran has played very well vs. Green Bay going all the way back to the Kaepernick days. Considering San Fran is viewed as one of the top defenses in the league, I think this total is way too high at 47.5. I would have thought it would be around 44/44.5. I kinda like San Fran here after what Green Bay showed last time they went west against the Chargers, but I almost never bet against Rodgers. I think they both score in the 20s and a late score by the winning team pushes it over.

    Detroit -3 vs. Washington
    By now people should know how I feel about Dwayne Haskins. His stat line was saved by a long TD on a screen pass to Guice last week, plus a garbage time touchdown. The final score ended up much closer than the game was. The Jets absolutely owned the Redskins last week. Unfortunately, the rest of the country has caught on to how bad Haskins is at this point, and it's a very high consensus play. That's why it's only a lean this week. Detroit's defense is really that bad that AP/Guice may be able to win the game for the Skins, and the defense can show up once in a while.


    Last edited by recovering77; 11-24-2019, 12:27 AM.
    2021 Regular Season
    36-29 plays, 25-31 leans

    2020 Playoffs
    6-2 Plays, 0-1 Leans

    2020 Regular Season
    18-16-1 Plays, 18-18-1 Leans

    2019 Regular Season
    15-8 plays, 7-6 leans, 2-1 Heavy MLs
Working...
X