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Week 11 All Game Writeups

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  • Week 11 All Game Writeups

    Another frustrating week last week. Can't seem to pick them all right. And I follow it up by taking Atlanta. Time to get serious. I've done writeups for every single game on the board and will narrow it down during the next couple of days.

    Again, the new numbering system with the team's current ATS W/L streak in ().

    Note: I've decided to switch it up a little bit this week. Usually when there's a ton of games I like about equally, I usually go .500 on those picks. So I'm going to pick a little differently this week, but too much to explain.


    Philly -2 (W1) vs. New Orleans (W1). This is a fair line. 4-6 Team Giving less than 3 at home vs. a 5-4 team. Philly coming off a blowout of Denver. New Orleans lost but covered against Tenn one of the best in the league. The lean here is Philly because New Orleans has covered every other game this season. I have attempted to bet against this trend twice and lost both times. New Orleans 4-0 ATS as an underdog. Philly 0-4 at home this season. I feel a reversion coming.

    It would also allow the trend to continue on Thursday because New Orleans is a short home dog vs. Buffalo.

    Alvin Kamara is out for this game.

    Buffalo -7 (W1) vs. Indy (L1). Buffalo off the blowout win vs. the Jets. Indy allowing the backdoor cover last week in a game that was never really in doubt. Is Buffalo even considered the team to beat in the AFC anymore? Is that why the line is so high? New England just took first place from them for the moment. This game is likely a no play for me. Buffaloís defense is much better than Iíve been giving them credit for, but Indy has been solid this season.

    50% chance of rain during this game. Snow coming on Monday. Whenever Wentz plays in bad weather he's prone to making those inexplicable turnovers that drive you nuts.

    This is a rematch from last year's playoffs where Buffalo pulled out the 3 pt win as a 7 pt favorite. Same line as here.

    Houston +10.5 (L1) at Tennessee (L1). Houston off their bye week after getting handled by Miami in Tyrodís first game back. Tennessee allowing that backdoor cover after being in control for most of the game last week. In the first 2 games Tyrod played extremely well, which sucked a lot of people into taking them at almost a TD dog against Miami last game. But Tyrod has been inconsistent, which is why heís never been considered a franchise QB. Tennessee covered 5 in a row prior to the 2 pt win over New Orleans, and has had an incredibly impressive 6 game winning streak against the top teams in the NFL. I hold my nose and think Houston keeps it close in a division game, while Tennessee may be looking ahead to the Patriots next week.

    Cincinnati -1 (L2) at LV Raiders (L2). Cincy has come back to earth losing the last 2 games after blowing out Baltimore, and the last game vs. Cleveland is they were the ones getting blown out. The Raiders have had a similar two games losing to the Giants and getting blow out on SNF vs. the Chiefs. I think the line is too high for Cincy in this spot. At both 5-4, the Raiders should be a -2.5 or 3 favorite here, not a 1 pt underdog at home. I lean Cincy here.

    LA Chargers / Pittsburgh OVER 47. This is a late pick for me. Getting scared off other games by some of these injuries. IMO this total opened too high, and it continues to move higher. Pittsburgh's supposed championship worthy defense, the offense that can barely move the ball at times, and playing the Chargers strong pass defense, but poor run defense. I think the total should be around 44.5 or 45, but it's 47.5 in some places.

    Seattle +2.5 (L1) vs. Arizona (L1). Last week was probably one of those game tapes you throw away. I have no idea what happened to Seattle last week getting blanked 17-0 at Green Bay. Their season is over, but they should be up for this division game. There is a glimmer of hope though. If they can beat Arizona this week, they've got Washington next week which should be a win. The Rams play at New Orleans and at Green Bay Next. So they may be able to pick up a game or two in the coming weeks.

    Murray is still banged up, but should play this week. Hopkins has been ruled out for the game. Maybe you can attribute Murray's success with him gaining more experience, but i think a lot of that success had to do with Arizona adding Hopkins in Murray's Sophomore season. I mean the dude is a beast and Arizona has lost 2 of the last 3 games without him (and Murray).

    Russell Wilson is 35-11 after losses.

    Not sure how I should list this play now. I did place a wager on Seattle already. But I was assuming that Kyler Murray would play. Adam Schefter is reporting that Murray is likely not going to play, and the line has moved 3 points since then. It does feel like a suckerish bet now since the line is still only -2.5 and Arizona got beat down last week with Colt Mccoy at QB. The line will likely move through the 3 tomorrow. But the saving grace is that we've already seen Colt Mccoy dominate in his first game, so maybe it gives the public at least some pause.

    So if the play wasn't already in, I would likely pull it to either a lean or a no play. But I will count it up here because it's already locked in unfortunately. I probably would have picked something else had I known.

    First Out Leans:

    Kansas City/Dallas OVER 56. They'll either hit 40 before halftime, or this will end up being a 17-14 game. I prefer to take the over on Dallas home games though.

    Washington +3 (W1) at Carolina (W1). Iím kicking myself for not taking Carolina last week. That should have been obvious with the backup QB and getting 10 pts vs. Colt Mccoy who just blew out San Fran the week before. Washingtonís coming in with a win against Tampa Bay who was missing Gronk and AB. Carolina was having way too much fun in that route last week. Ron Rivera playing his old team. Line seems too low for this game. Carolina the better record. Carolina the better QB. Carolina the better RB. Carolina the better defense. Carolina at home. Everything points to Carolina in this game. And the line even moved from 3.5 to 3 I believe.

    One thing to note is that Ryan Fitzpatrick probably isn't coming back this season. That may have been known for a while in Washington, but the news just came out last Sunday morning. So maybe Heinicke played well last week knowing he doesn't have to look over his shoulder anymore.

    Minnesota +1.5 (W2) vs Green Bay (W9). Minnesota has played all close games the entire season. In most of those games you'd be getting 3 or the hook as a dog, but you basically need Minny to win the game this week. Minnesota won at Chargers last week. Green Bay with a convincing 17-0 blanking of Seattle in Rodgers first game back. Minnesota needs the game more because theyíd go 2 games under .500 again. Green Bay still in the driver's seat for the only bye. 1 game lead over Dallas, and hold the tie breaker over Arizona.

    Green Bay missing Aaron Jones.

    Key Fact: Green Bay has been awful on the road.
    Lost by 35 to New Orleans, Won by 2 at San Fran, Won by 3 at Cincy, Won by 10 luckily at Chicago, Won by 3 at Arizona, Lost by 6 at Kansas City. Minus 7.5 if they were home is a fair line.

    Lean Minnesota if I take Philly. Green Bay is probably the square pick, but I feel like Vegas is gonna throw a few bones out this week. Minnesota has played all close games. If they keep giving them 3/3.5 people will keep betting them and winning. Making them a pickem maybe give them pause.

    I've decided not to place any wagers on this game. I've bet against Green bay 5 times this season and lost 4 times. Aaron Rodgers has too much of a chip on his shoulder this year. Minnesota needs this game, but it's not a must win. Minnesota has San Francisco, Detroit, Pittsburgh, and Chicago for their next 4, and I like them to win 3 of those games. That'll put them back at .500 going into the Rams game. I even see them pulling a 3 game ATS streak in there. They've already been 2 games under .500 twice this season.

    Minnesota is also a pretty popular play this week. I just don't like them getting less than 3, and playing Green Bay.

    Kansas City -2.5 (W1) vs. Dallas (W1). So is Dallas BACK after that thrashing they put on Atlanta last week? Well after that pathetic performance by Atlanta, you may want to hold that thought. Is Kansas City back after they throttled the Raiders on SNF? One thing Iíve learned this season is that non-division, non-conference games matter the least out of all games on the schedule. Dallas has a 3 game lead on second place Philly and hold the tie breaker for the moment. KC is leading by no more than 1 game against all teams in their division. This is Dallasís chance to prove that they are really a contender this season, but KC simply needs the game more going into their bye week next week. Also kinda like the over in this game as well.

    Fun Fact: A win here would give make KC 4-0 vs. the NFC East this season. Beat Philly 42-30, Wash 31-13, NYG 20-17 already.
    Dallas has played the AFC 3 times this season. 20-17 win vs. Chargers. 35-29 OT win at Patriots, and the 30-16 loss to Denver.

    Other Leans:

    Baltimore -4.5 (L3) at Chicago (W1). Baltimore lost to Miami Thursday. Chicago covered late against Pitt. Ravens would be -10.5 at home vs. a 3-6 team and that seems kinda high. Very small lean to Ravens.

    Lamar Jackson questionable with ilness. He was ill earlier this week, then returned to practice Friday, then listed as questionable with illness again on Saturday? Never seen that happen before. Unless he gets COVID he's likely playing, but I don't want to get stuck with a bad bet with McSorley if something happens by Sunday.

    Hollywood Brown is confirmed out for this game. Because of this, I can no longer take the Ravens. He's too important.

    I still lean Baltimore and think they still can get it done with Andrews and Bateman as the main targets. And I think it'll be a blowout 31-6 or something.

    Miami -3.5 (W1) at NY Jets (L2). High consensus on Miami this week, but I think the line is really high. Miami giving 3 and the hook on the road against a team that only has 1 less win than they do. Could be an overreaction to Miami beating Baltimore. Joe Flacco will be getting the start for the Jets. I guess they didnít want to completely waste that draft pick. Lean to Miami here.

    The line is high, but Miami did play the Jets last season in Flacco's first start as the backup QB. They won 24-0. So I'd still slightly lean Miami, but it wasn't even close to a play, and I even considered taking the Jets.

    LA Chargers -6 (L1) vs. Pittsburgh (Draw). This line is much higher than I thought it would be. Similar records. Big Ben will likely be back, but likely with little to no practice like Rodgers was last week. Surely the books know by now that the Chargers either win close or lose outright donít they? I think the line should be more like 3.5-4. Maybe 4.5, but weíre almost at a TD at this point. I lean Chargers, but I hesitate to take them as a favorite at all.

    No Plays:

    San Fran -6.5 (W1) at Jacksonville (W2). The reason I pulled my SF pick last week was because I was hoping to take San Fran in this spot off a loss. Giving 6 on the road to a Jacksonville team that has covered 2 in a row against two very good teams (Indy and Buffalo). Unfortunately, San Fran had a huge and convincing win over the Rams who were supposedly the class of the NFC. Itís still a decent spot to take SF, but Iíll need to think it over more. SF is a high consensus play, but IMO itís SF or nothing on this game.

    I have chosen nothing on this game. San Francisco has been overvalued this entire season, and they're off their biggest win of the season in beatdown fashion of the Rams. And I don't like it for probability because New England covered Thursday as 6.5 pt road favorites.

    Tampa Bay -11 (L1) vs. NY Giants (W3). The home team continues to be a winning proposition on MNF this season. The home team has either won, or covered every single game this season. Probably a good spot to take the Bucs. I think Tom Brady has only lost like 5-6 games following a loss in his career. Gronkowski has practiced and will likely be back. Antonio Brown is still out.

    Cleveland -11.5 (L1 Blowout) vs. Detroit (W1). I donít think Iíll be making any kind of pick on this game. Detroit is 5-1 ATS as an underdog of 4 or more this season, but Stefanski is still something like 8-1 following a loss. I remember that stat from week 5 when he went from 6-0 to 6-1 vs. the Arizona. So Cleveland is very likely going to win, but the Browns are such a mess right now and Detroit is running out of games to get their first win. I heard some people picking Denver as their first win, but looking at the schedule I actually think it comes next week against Chicago in a rematch, or at home first their division rival Minnesota, who may have a win against GB on their belt by then.

    Jared Goff is listed as doubtful for this game with an oblique. Tim Boyle is expected to start. Could be a backup QB system play now.

    As always, this post will be revised several times up until 1 PM kickoff.

    Last week 3-1 plays, 1-4 leans, 2-0 No Plays

    2021 Season:
    17-12 plays, 8-17 leans (yikes)
    Last edited by recovering77; 11-21-2021, 01:44 AM.
    2021 Regular Season
    36-29 plays, 25-31 leans

    2020 Playoffs
    6-2 Plays, 0-1 Leans

    2020 Regular Season
    18-16-1 Plays, 18-18-1 Leans

    2019 Regular Season
    15-8 plays, 7-6 leans, 2-1 Heavy MLs

  • #2
    San Fran seems horribly overvalued in this spot. Just 6 days ago they were home dogs, now they are -6.5 road favs? Thatís too much of an adjustment for a team who hasníít impressed really all year. The jags might be finding their footing putting some consistent games together. I want no part of sf and Iííll take the points most likely.


    • #3
      Final plays are in. Injuries really complicated things for me this week. So I had to dig pretty deep into my analysis.

      Originally posted by Daws1089 View Post
      San Fran seems horribly overvalued in this spot. Just 6 days ago they were home dogs, now they are -6.5 road favs? Thatís too much of an adjustment for a team who hasníít impressed really all year. The jags might be finding their footing putting some consistent games together. I want no part of sf and Iííll take the points most likely.
      Yeah, I tried to avoid teams that had big wins last week as much as i could. Therefore, I did not take Washington even though I really, really liked them. I also liked San Francisco, but can't bet them after they beat down the Rams in primetime. Non division, non conference game though, so not a good spot I guess. I think I stopped following the MNF winner trend, but I think the team that won MNF was up to 7-0 the next game at one point. Forgot about that.

      Edit: I went back and checked the MNF trend. It ended at 7-0. The Chiefs didn't cover the next week, but the Giants did. Then the Bears covered, but had a bye, so I guess they're still pending. The Steelers didn't cover. That's too complicated to figure, so I'm not following that trend anymore.
      Last edited by recovering77; 11-21-2021, 01:53 AM.
      2021 Regular Season
      36-29 plays, 25-31 leans

      2020 Playoffs
      6-2 Plays, 0-1 Leans

      2020 Regular Season
      18-16-1 Plays, 18-18-1 Leans

      2019 Regular Season
      15-8 plays, 7-6 leans, 2-1 Heavy MLs