RBD breaks down back-to-back betting trends and uncovers a strong Game 2 handicapping angle for Pacers vs Wizards.
I did some more work on NBA teams playing in B2B’s (Back to Back). And I wished I’d done it sooner.
I came up with some interesting scenarios/edges, but because I’m late to the party it puts me in that unenviable position of jumping on already established trends, instead of discovering them early and profiting before they start to level out.
All of the teams below are playing in Game two of B2B’s Friday night, so be sure to check these numbers before you make any plays on them.
(Records below do not include Thursday night’s Game one spots.)
LA Clippers in B2B’s
Game one:
SU 4-5
ATS 5-4
Ov/Un 5-4
Game two:
SU 2-7
ATS 4-5
Ov/Un 4-5
Charlotte Hornets in B2B’s
Game one:
SU 1-11
ATS 6-5
Ov/Un 6-5
Game two:
SU 8-3
ATS 9-2
Ov/Un 2-9
Brooklyn Nets in B2B’s
Game one:
SU 1-8
ATS 4-5
Ov/Un 3-6
Game two:
SU 1-8
ATS 1-8
Ov/Un 3-6
Cleveland Cavs in B2B’s
Game one:
SU 7-1
ATS 4-4
Ov/Un 5-3
Game two:
SU 5-3
ATS 4-4
Ov/Un 4-4
Washington Wizards in B2B’s
Game one:
SU 6-3
ATS 5-4
Ov/Un 6-3
Game two:
SU 0-9
ATS 3-6
Ov/Un 3-6
Indiana Pacers in B2B’s
Game one:
SU 3-6
ATS 5-4
Ov/Un 5-4
Game two:
SU 3-6
ATS 4-5
Ov/Un 3-6
A couple of things stand out.
First, Charlotte must have pissed off somebody in the league’s scheduling department because they’ve already played in B2B’s 11 times.
Most teams are in the 7-9 range.
More importantly, a few things stick out from a bettors point of view.
Spots with a 67% or higher edge are readily available.
Examples:
Brooklyn Under in Game one and Brooklyn Under in Game two.
Washington Over in Game one and Washington Under in Game two.
Indiana Under in Game two.
For plays that are hitting at better than 67% you have . . .
The Under in Game two for Charlotte is 2-9, an 81% Fade.
Brooklyn is 1-8 ATS in Game 2, an 88% Fade.
But the stat that stands out the most comes from Washington. In Game two the Wizards are 0-9 SU! And they’re just 3-6, a 67% Fade ATS in Game two.
Which brings me to tonight’s pick.
The Wizards played last night.
This makes the 0-9 and 3-6 plays active.
And they’re playing Indiana, who also played last night. The Pacers aren’t much to look at in game two, just 3-6 SU in Game two, and 4-5 ATS, but their numbers are way better than Washington’s.
But here’s where it gets really good.
It’s a rare B2B in that the two teams played each other the night before.
Thursday night, the Wizards were Home Dogs of +2′ and beat the Pacers SU, 112-105.
When Wash wins Game one SU they’re 0-5 SU in Game two. If that stat holds true I only need Indy to cover a small spread, and the line on this one opened at Indy -3. It’s down to -1′ right now.
I’ll wait a little longer before buying it, to try and get that hook off.
My play:
Ind (wait to buy.)
Recap
Recap: 1-0
Record:13-9
Review: The question from yesterday’s article was, “Rest or Rust” – would the extra days off for the All Star break lead to Overs or Unders?
The offenses weren’t clicking, as the Unders ruled, 7-3.
And I had an Over.
Fortunately I used one of the three that went Over and banked a win with Bos/GS.
