Denver Broncos (9-7 last season) -3 , o/u 37 at Buffalo Bills (7-9 last season), 1:00 p.m. Eastern Sunday, September 9 on CBS
by Jerald of Predictem.com
The Denver Broncos, after a difficult offseason that resulted in the deaths of 2 players, look to begin their 2007 on positive note as they travel to Ralph Wilson Stadium to face the Buffalo Bills in the 2007 season opener.
Denver missed the playoffs last season after losing their final game and finishing with a 9-7 record. Buffalo would like to get off to a fast start at home after last seasons losing record of 7-9.
This will be a matchup of 2 young QBs as Cutler returns for the Broncos after taking over for Jake Plummer last season and Losman leads the Bills. In the 5 games he started last season, Cutler completed 59.1% of his passes for 1,001 yards, 9 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. Losman started all 16 games in 2006 and completed 62.6% of his passes for 3,050 yards 19 touchdowns and 14 interceptions.
Denver was 21st in total offense last season. They averaged 134.5 yards rushing per game (4.41 yards per carry) and 174.9 yards passing. Buffalo ranked 30th in total offense rushing for 97 yards per game (3.70 yards per carry) and 169.9 yards passing.
The Bronco defense ranked 14th in total defense allowing 113.6 yards rushing (4.08 yards per carry) and 212.7 yards passing. The Bills defense ranked 18th in total defense allowing 140.8 yards rushing (4.70 yards per rush) and 188.9 yards passing.
In scoring offense the Broncos ranked 17th averaging 19.9 points per game, the Bills ranked 23rd scoring 18.8 points per game. In scoring defense Denver was 9th allowing 19.1 points per game, Buffalo was 10th allowing 19.4 points per game.
Denver was 5-11 against the spread last season, they were 5-3 straight up and 4-4 ATS on the road.
Buffalo was 10-6 ATS last season, and 4-4 SU and 5-3 vs. the number at home.
These two teams last met in 2005 with Denver winning 28-17 in Buffalo.
The Sagarin PREDICTOR ratings at USAToday.com ranks Denver #5 at 23.79, Buffalo is 14th at 20.50.
The O/U is 8-8 in Bronco games last season, 7-9 in Bills games.
Denver opened up as a 3.5 point road favorite with a total of 37. The line has dropped to -3 at most sportsbooks and the total has stayed at 37. At the time of this writing, the public was backing the Broncos 76%-24%.
The Predictem Pick: Last season was very profitable to back the home team underdog. We also like the fact that the public is on the Broncos but the line has gone down. We will side with the Bills here and suggest taking the points in this game.
Buffalo 20 Denver 17