Denver Broncos vs. Indianapolis Colts Preview and Pick

Denver Broncos (2-1) at Indianapolis Colts (3-0) -9.5 o/u 46.5, 4:15 p.m. Eastern Sunday September 30, CBS Network
by Jerald of

The Denver Broncos and Indianapolis Colts meet Sunday in the RCA dome. The Broncos have struggled in the early season but have still managed a 2-1 record. The defending Super Bowl Champion Colts have picked up where they left off last season.

The Broncos are 0-3 against the spread this season; they are 1-0 straight up and 0-1 ATS on the road.

The Colts are 1-2 ATS this season, and they are 1-0 SU and 1-0 vs. the number at home.

Denvers starting QB, Jay Cutler, has thrown for 795 yards, 3 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. His QB rating is 84.3 with a completion rate of 65.3%. The ground game is led by Travis Henry who has rushed for 302 yards (5.0 yards per carry) but only 1 touchdown.

Indianapolis is led by QB Peyton Manning. Manning is off to another great start with 873 yards, 5 touchdowns and 1 interception. His QB rating is 104.9 and he has completed 65.3% of his passes. The Colts rushing attack is led by Joseph Addai who has rushed for 271 yards and 4 touchdowns.

The Broncos are being outrushed by their opponents this season by a 133-166 yards-per-game average, while the Colts are outrushing their opponents by a 112-96 YPG margin.

Denver is averaging 6.4 yards per play on the season while Indianapolis is averaging 6.6 yards per play. The Broncos defense has given up an average of 4.6 yards per play while the Colts have given up an average of 4.8 yards per play.

Denver ranks 6th in total offense averaging 392.0 yards per game. Indianapolis ranks 4th with 398.3 yards per game.

In scoring offense, the Broncos rank 23rd averaging 17.3 points per game and the Colts rank 5th averaging 31.0 points per game.

On the defensive side of the ball the Broncos rank 3rd in total defense giving up 254.3 yards per game while the Colts rank 5th giving up an average of 286.7 yards per game.

In scoring defense Denver ranks 13th and Indianapolis ranks 12th giving up 19.0 and 18.0 points per game, respectively.

These two teams have last met on 10/29/06 with the Colts winning in Denver by a score of 34-31.

The Sagarin PREDICTOR ratings at ranks Denver #28 at 15.39, Indianapolis is #3 at 30.13.

The Over/Under is 2-1 in Broncos games this season, 1-2 in Colts games.

Indianapolis opened up as a 9.5 point favorite with a total of 46.5 at most sportsbooks. The line has stayed at Indianapolis -9.5 and the total has stayed at 46.5. At the time of this writing, the betting public was backing the Colts 79%-21%.

The Predictem Pick: These teams have met 5 times since 2004 and all 5 games have gone over the total. We expect this to be another high scoring game and suggest a wager on over the total of 46.5.

Indianapolis 31 Denver 24