Green Bay Packers (5-1) +3, o/u 42 at Denver Broncos (3-3), 8:30 pm Eastern Monday, ESPN
by Zman of Predictem.com
One aging gunslinger takes on one of the young guns in the league when Brett Favre and his Green Bay Packers visit the Mile High City to take on Jay Cutler and his Denver Broncos on ESPN’s Monday Night Football.
Green Bay is off to a surprising 5-1 start, and leads the NFC North Division by a game over the second-place Detroit Lions. The Packers beat the Washington Redskins 17-14 two weeks ago, despite getting outgained by 80 yards, and had last week off.
Denver broke a three-game losing streak with a 31-28 win at the buzzer last week over the Pittsburgh Steelers. So despite some struggles, the Broncos sit at 3-3 and just a half-game back of the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC West race.
Green Bay, which ranks dead last in the league in rushing at 66 yards per game, is still a moneymaking 4-1-1 against the spread this year, and 2-0 both straight up and ATS on the road.
On the other side of this match-up, Denver, which ranks last in the league against the run at 176 yards allowed per game, is 1-5 vs. the numbers this season, and 2-2 SU and 1-3 against the spread at home.
The Packers are outscoring opponents so far this season by a 24-18 average score and outgaining foes 339-324, but getting outrushed on average 100-66.
The Broncos are getting outscored 27-18 and outrushed 176-131, but are outgaining foes 358-341.
Favre has completed 65% of his passes this season for a 9/6 TD/INT ratio and a 87.0 passing rating.
Cutler has hit on 66% of his throws this season for a 7/8 TD/INT ratio and a 84.2 passing rating.
These two teams last met in December of 2003, when Green Bay beat Denver 31-3 at Lambeau Field.
These two teams have played one common opponent so far this year. The Packers beat San Diego 31-24 back in week three, while the Chargers kicked the Broncos 41-3 three weeks ago in Denver. Green Bay outgained San Diego 405-364, while the Bolts outgained the Broncs 484-296.
The o/u is 4-2 in Packers games this season, which are averaging 42 points per, while the totals are 5-1 in Denver games, which are averaging 45 points.
The Broncos opened as one-point home chalk at most sportsbooks for Monday night’s game, with a total of 42, with the side moving up to -3 at time of print. Also, Denver is listed at right around -175 on the moneyline, with Green Bay getting around +155 as road dogs.
Zman’s Pick: We like the Broncos at -3.