Green Bay Packers (3-0) -1, o/u 38 at Minnesota Vikings (1-2), 1:00 p.m. Eastern Sunday September 30, Fox Network
by Jerald of Predictem.com
The Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings meet Sunday in the Metrodome in a key divisional matchup. The Packers have started the season strong winning their first 3 games while the Vikings have stumbled offensively in their 1-2.
The Packers are 3-0 against the spread this season; they are 2-0 straight up and 2-0 ATS on the road.
The Vikings are 1-0-2 ATS this season, and they are 1-0 SU and 1-0 vs. the number at home.
Green Bay’s starting QB, Brett Farve, needs 1 touchdown pass to become the all-time leader in touchdown passes. Farve is having a great season so far throwing for 861 yards, 6 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. His QB rating is 93.5 with a completion rate of 64.00%. The ground game has struggled in the early season, rookie Brandon Jackson is the leading rusher with just 97 yards in 3 games.
Minnesota will be led by backup QB Kelly Holcomb. Holcomb filled in last week and threw for 165 yards and didn’t have a touchdown or interception. His QB rating is 68.3 and he has completed 50% of his passes. The Vikings expect to get Chester Taylor back this week to add to Adrian Peterson in the rushing attack. Peterson has looked good rushing for 271 yards (4.2 yards per carry) but has only found the end zone once.
The Packers are being outrushed by their opponents this season by a 57-90 yards-per-game average, while the Vikings are outrushing their opponents by a 128-67 YPG margin.
Green Bay is averaging 5.4 yards per play on the season while Minnesota is averaging 4.9 yards per play. The Packers defense has given up an average of 5.3 yards per play while the Vikings have given up an average of 4.7 yards per play.
These two teams have last met on 12/21/06 with the Packers winning in Green Bay by a score of 9-7. The Packers have won 6 out of the last 10 meetings between these 2 teams.
Green Bay ranks 18th in total offense averaging 329.3 yards per game. Minnesota ranks 26th with 289.0 yards per game.
In scoring offense, the Packers rank 7th averaging 27.3 points per game and the Vikings rank 25th averaging 17.0 points per game.
On the defensive side of the ball the Packers rank 15th in total defense giving up 324.0 yards per game while the Vikings rank 12th giving up an average of 310.3 yards per game.
In scoring defense Green Bay ranks 8th and Minnesota ranks 4th giving up 16.7 and 12.0 points per game, respectively.
The Sagarin PREDICTOR ratings at USAToday.com ranks Green Bay #10 at 22.42, Minnesota is #22 at 17.03.
The Over/Under is 2-1 in Packers games this season, 0-3 in Vikings games.
Green Bay opened up as a 1 point favorite at most football gambling sites with a total of 39.5. The line has stayed at Green Bay -1 and the total has dropped to 38. At the time of this writing, the betting public was backing the Packers 60%-40%.
The Predictem Pick: We suggest a wager on the Vikings in this spot. Minnesota has a very good run defense and the Packers struggle running the ball. This should force Farve into pressing his luck and forcing some passes that will result in turnovers for the Vikings defense.
Minnesota 21 Green Bay 17
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