Indianapolis Colts (3-2) -1.5, 47 O/U at Green Bay Packers (3-3) +1.5, 47 O/U, Lambeau Field, Green Bay, Wis., 4:15 PM Eastern, Sunday
by Badger of Predictem.com
The Indianapolis Colts and Green Bay Packers will have something in common when they meet on Lambeau Field in Green Bay this Sunday - theyll both be trying to get momentum back on their side in the form of a two-game winning streak.
For the first time all season, the Colts finally looked like the team everyone expected them to be last Sunday in their convincing 31-3 victory over Baltimore. Also, Peyton Manning finally looked healthy enough to get some impressive stats (271 yds., 3 TD) versus a strong Baltimore defense.
Green bay also is coming off a solid win, going out to Seattle last Sunday and beating the Seahawks, 27-17. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers continues to do his best to play through a shoulder injury, with an efficient effort of 21-for-30 for 208 yards and two touchdowns in the win over Seattle.
Oddsmakers originally opened this game with the Packers as slim 1- point favorites, but early money moved the line to the other side and now the Colts are 1.5-point favorites on the road at Lambeau. The Colts are even a full 2-point favorite at a few offshore sportsbooks.
The total has also moved from it opening number of 48, as it is down a point to 47 at just about every house, although the Hilton and Mirage in Las Vegas currently list the total at 46.5. The moneyline has Indy listed as the -121 favorite, with the Packers as +111 underdogs.
On paper, this game looks like it should be full of offense controlled by top-flight quarterbacks and littered with game-breaking receivers (Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, Greg Jennings and Donald Driver) and running backs (Ryan Grant, Dominic Rhodes and Joseph Addai) on both sidelines.
Indy enters the game just 17th in total yards (317.4 ypg) and 16th in scoring (22.8 ppg), with Green Bay a few notches higher at 14th in total yards (333.3 ypg) and 9th in scoring at 26.7 points per game.
Indys overall approach to defense this season has been iffy at best, ranking 21st in the league in yards allowed per game (334.4 ypg) through five games. The Colts play a brand of bend-but-dont-break defense, how else can you explain a scheme that gives up almost as many yards on the ground (161.2 ypg - 29th) as they do in the air (173.2 ypg - 6th).
Green Bay defense is better than Indy by two yards overall (20th - 332.2 ypg), but otherwise they too are a unit that is strong versus the pass (178.8 ypg - 7th), but weak at the point of attack versus the run (153.3 ypg - 27th).
The Packers and Colts havent met on the playing field since 2004, when the Colts crushed the Pack at home in the RCA Dome, 45-31. The previous game before that was a 26-24 Packers win at home in Lambeau back in November of 2000. All time the Colts are not only 5-2 straight up in the head-to-head, but they also own an impressive 6-1 ATS record in the series as well.
If all of the names on offense, versus some suspect defense, isnt enough to have you leaning toward betting on the over than maybe some betting trends for that side of the number will sway you. The over is 7-1 in the Packers last eight home games, 4-1-1 so far this season and 21-8-1 in their last 30 overall.
Indy is just 3-2 ATS so far but has played well on the road of late (4-1 ATS in last five), and appears to be clicking at the right time on offense, enough so to make oddsmakers swing the point spread to their side of the board. Green Bay is 3-3 ATS this year and could be an attractive candidate as a home dog this Sunday for some bettors who cant pass up a strong home dawg.
Badgers Pick: Injuries are much more of an issue for Green Bay right now (Rodgers, A.J. Hawk, the entire d-line) then they are for Indy, as Manning appears to be getting better/healthier every time out. But the Packers will still get their points, so Im taking the over of 47 in this game.