Indianapolis Colts (5-0) -3, o/u 44.5 at Jacksonville Jaguars (4-1) 8:30 p.m. Eastern Monday, October 22, ESPN
by Jerald of Predictem.com
The Indianapolis Colts and Jacksonville Jaguars meet in this week’s Monday Night Football matchup. This is a huge game as the Colts look to take a 2 game lead in the AFC South with a win. If the Jaguars can win they will prove that they are legimate contender to win the division title over the defending Super Bowl Champions.
The Colts are 3-2 against the spread this season; they are 2-0 straight up and 0-2 ATS on the road.
The Jaguars are 3-2 ATS this season, and they are 2-1 SU and 1-2 vs. the number at home.
Indianapolis’s starting QB Peyton Manning is having another spectacular season. He has thrown for 1,319 yards, 10 touchdown and 2 interceptions. His QB rating is 108.6 with a completion rate of 69.7%. The rushing attack is led by Joseph Addai who has 407 yards (4.8 yards per carry) and 5 touchdowns.
Jacksonville is led by QB David Garrard who has thrown for 1,069 yards, 6 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. His QB rating is 104.7 and he has completed 66.2% of his passes. The Jaguars ground attack is two pronged attack with Maurice Jones-Drew (307 yards, 3 touchdowns) and Fred Taylor (297 yards, 0 touchdowns).
The Colts are outrushing their opponents this season by a 142-105 yards-per-game average, while the Jaguars are outrushing their opponents by a 154-96 YPG margin.
Indianapolis is averaging 6.3 yards per play on the season while Jacksonville is averaging 6.0 yards per play. The Colts defense has given up an average of 5.1 yards per play while the Jaguars have given up an average of 5.6 yards per play.
Indianapolis ranks 3rd in total offense averaging 402.8 yards per game. Jacksonville ranks 7th with 355.2.
In scoring offense, the Colts rank 3rd averaging 32.8 points per game and the Jaguars rank 18th averaging 20.0 points per game.
On the defensive side of the ball the Colts rank 5th in total defense giving up 278.2 yards per game while the Jaguars rank 8th giving up an average of 304.8 yards per game.
In scoring defense Indianapolis ranks 11th and Jacksonville ranks 2nd giving up 17.6 and 11.6 points per game, respectively.
These teams split the season series last year with both home teams winning.
The Sagarin PREDICTOR ratings at USAToday.com ranks Indianapolis #3 at 29.73, Jacksonville is #5 at 25.92.
The Over/Under is 3-2 in Colts games this season, 2-3 in Jaguars games.
Indianapolis opened up as a 3 point favorite at most sportsbooks with a total of 45. The line has stayed at Indianapolis -3 and the total has dropped to 44.5. At the time of this writing, the betting public was backing the Colts 85%-15%.
The Predictem Pick: In this game we have another situation where nobody is giving Jacksonville a chance to win as the public is backing Indianapolis by a wide margin. We like the home team to upset the Colts in this spot. Take the points!
Jacksonville 24 Indianapolis 21