Kansas City Chiefs vs. Indianapolis Colts Preview and Pick

Kansas City Chiefs (4-5) +14.5, 43.5 O/U at Indianapolis Colts (7-2) -14.5, RCA Dome, Indianapolis, 1pm EST Sunday
by The Crazy Snake of Preditem.com

“Brodie who?” I hear you cry…After last week’s effort I have even heard the odd “Peyton who?”, but we know that’s just sarcasm right? What’s sad is, in the case of Brodie Croyle it isn’t sarcasm. Few people know who he is. Apparently, he played off the bench in a game last season. I must have missed it. It wasn’t special. 3 completions from 7 attempts and 2 interceptions. Add one sack and you have an entirely forgettable debut. Ok, so he replaced the injured Damon Huard last week and did ok, given the circumstances. That is a far cry from starting against the rebounding Indianapolis Colts.

So what does KC have going for it against a Manning led Indy offense looking to bounce back off Peyton’s most embarrassing career performance? Not very much! No wonder then that the Chiefs are 14.5 point road dogs in this one. I often wonder how sportsbooks come up with 14.5 points. Do you think it’s any coincidence that it’s 1 half point beyond a 2 TD victory. I am more cynical.

Indy lost the NFL’s highest paid defensive player, defensive end Dwight Freeney to an ankle injury this week. By all reports it’s season ending and will devastate the Colts’ gameplan, which is built on attaining a lead and then creating maximum defensive pressure by sending Freeney all guns blazing to attack and crush anything that moves. The Colts picked up Simeon Rice from the Buccaneers as an immediate substitute. A couple of years ago he would have been an able replacement for Freeney, but now one suspects he is that many years past his best football. It remains to be seen whether he can fill what amounts to a gaping hole on the right end of the defensive line. Indianapolis’s underrated defense has thrived on the efforts of Freeney all season long and it will be interesting to see how they handle his absence.

It’s going to be fun watching how Manning responds to last week’s performance. You probably won’t see the notion of revenge expressed on his brow. Manning believes revenge is a dish best served cold. He will be looking to atone in no uncertain terms, however. To Peyton that will mean dissecting his mistakes of the previous week and working almost obsessively on all the things he has identified as being an issue. Presumably, after that point it will mean dissecting his opponent’s defense and showing them why he has twice been awarded the league’s MVP.

Meanwhile, KC, still without Larry Johnson will try to construct a counter based around a 34 year old running back and an offensive linchpin whose name might sound more like the name of a character in an Enid Blyton novel than an NFL starting quarterback. Not that a name should count for anything, but the name Peyton Manning sure does. Does it count for more than 14 points of home victory? I think it probably does.

The Snake’s Bite: Indianapolis is far superior to Kansas City and even KC knows it. The move to promote Brodie Croyle just smacks of a reality check on the part of Herm Edwards and a chance to give experience to a young quarterback in a game they don’t seriously expect to win. Take the Colts to win and cover the spread in a game in which they must make a statement and arrest a disturbing slide. The Colts will score their 20-30 points at least and I can see a potential for the below average Chiefs’ offense to get shut out.