New England Patriots (12-4 last season) -6 , o/u 40.5 at New York Jets (10-6 last season), 1:00 p.m. Eastern Sunday, September 9 on CBS
by Jerald of Predictem.com
The New England Patriots travel to Giants Stadium to face a familiar opponent in the New York Jets. These teams met 3 times last season including the playoffs where the Patriots eliminated the Jets by a score of 37-16. The Patriots have won and covered the spread in their last 6 games hosted by the Jets. Overall, New England is 10-3 SU and 9-3-1 ATS in games against the Jets since 2001.
This will be a matchup of 2 teams that dont like each other as Jets HC Mangini is a former defensive coordinator from New England and Patriots HC Belichek left the Jets standing at the alter after accepting their head coaching position and then changing his mind a few days later.
Both teams have a veteran QB leading them. The Patriots are led by Tom Brady who completed 61.9% of his passes last season for 3,531 yards, 24 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. In an effort to beef up their offense the Patriots brought in several new receivers including Randy Moss, Donte Stallworth and Wes Welker. It will be interesting to see how Brady works with this talented bunch of receivers. The rushing game is led by Lawrence Maroney who rushed for 745 yards and 6 touchdowns last year in his rookie season.
The Jets are led by Chad Pennington who completed 64.5% of his passes for 3,352 yards, 17 touchdowns and 16 interceptions last season. The Jets brought in Thomas Jones in hopes of improving their rushing game from last season.
New England was 11th in total offense last season. They averaged 122.9 yards rushing per game (3.95 yards per carry) and 212.6 yards passing. New York ranked 25th in total offense rushing for 108.7 yards per game (3.53 yards per carry) and 197.1 yards passing.
The Patriots defense ranked 5th in total defense allowing 94.1 yards rushing (3.87 yards per carry) and 200.3 yards passing. The Jets defense ranked 20th in total defense allowing 130.1 yards rushing (4.61 yards per rush) and 201.4 yards passing.
In scoring offense the Patriots ranked 7th averaging 24.1 points per game, the Jets ranked 18th scoring 19.8 points per game. In scoring defense New England was 2nd allowing 14.8 points per game, New York was 6th allowing 18.4 points per game.
New England was 11-8 against the spread last season, they were 8-2 straight up and 8-2 ATS on the road.
New York was 11-6 ATS last season, and 4-4 SU and 5-3 vs. the number at home.
The Sagarin PREDICTOR ratings at USAToday.com ranks New England #2 at 29.46, New York is 11th at 21.42.
The O/U is 8-11 in Patriots games last season, 10-7 in Jets games.
New England opened up as a 6.5 point road favorite with a total of 40.5. The line has dropped at most online sportsbooks to -6 and the total has stayed at 40.5. At the time of this writing, the public was backing the Patriots 75%-25%.
The Predictem Pick: With the changes made in New England bringing in these new receivers we feel that the Patriots will try to make a statement in their opener. Adding in the fact that the Patriots have dominated the Jets in recent history and the fact that the Patriots are road warriors covering 25 of their last 35 road games and we are going to back the favorite in this game.
New England 28 New York Jets 17