New York Giants (6-3) -3, 49 O/U at Detroit Lions (6-3) +3, Ford Field, Detroit, 1pm EST Sunday
by The Crazy Snake of Predictem.com
Uh oh! Jonny Kitna, your number might be up. I hope you have insurance. The Lions are dead last in sacks allowed (40) and the Giants are first in sacks (32). I think we all know what means….a long day for JK! Plus the Giants only got to Romo twice last week so their appetites will be somewhat elevated. Accordingly, they will need to make sure they stay onside, because they will be jumping out of their skins to get at it and will need to curtail their enthusiasm for that extra second or two.
I must admit to being a bit of a fair weather Giants fan. I like what they are doing this season. Ok, so they got smoked by Dallas last week, but a play here and there and that result could have been very different. They were in it up to their necks everywhere but the scoreboard.
Defensively is where they have thrived and where they will win this game, if they are to win. The assumption is that they will get their share of Kitna and put pressure on a Lion’s rushing attack that put up -18 yards last week, the lowest total since 1946. Coincidentally, Detroit has the leagues’ lowest ever rushing total (somewhere in the -40s) and its highest (418). If Detroit is to win it is imperative that Kevin Jones finds his feet early. If he doesn’t, the Giants will inevitably be all over Kitna, who may as well be a statue, such is his lack of mobility.
On the other side of the ball, Detroit has been pretty effective, though they only have the leagues’ 26th ranked pass rush. That would seem to be a little off, however, since Detroit led the league in picks until last week. San Diego went from 11 to 17 on 6 Manning interceptions to eclipse the Lions’ mark by 2. But they are doing something right, and I guess that is the point. Eli Manning has been somewhat pick prone and will need to make solid decisions. Brandon Jacobs will get his usual workload but will not find the 8th ranked rush defense in raw yards and equal 5th in average yards allowed (3.7) an easy mark.
The Lions are 4-0 at home and this will be a tough ask for the Giants, smarting off last week’s loss. Similarly, the Lions will want to get back on the board after faltering at Arizona. The Giants are solid 3 point road favorites with most sportsbooks on the back of a defensive line of scrimmage dominance that will see the Lion’s prolific passing attack under pressure to perform at its optimum level.
I think I declared my hand early here and like the Giants. The texture of this game suggests heavy pressure on the quarterbacks on both sides and I think overall that the Giants can accommodate an under-performing passing attack more readily than the Lions can.
The Snake’s Bite: Take the Giants at the -3.0 and hope they get after Kitna all day long.