New England Patriots (3-0) -7 o/u 53.5 at Cincinnati Bengals (1-2), 8:30 p.m. Eastern Monday, October 1, ESPN
by Jerald of Predictem.com
The New England Patriots and Cincinnati Bengals meet Monday in a game that the Bengals need to win to show that they are a playoff caliber team. New England has rolled in the first 3 games scoring 38 points in all 3 wins. The Bengals have been stung by poor defense as they have allowed an average of 31 points a game.
The Patriots are 3-0 against the spread this season; they are 1-0 straight up and 1-0 ATS on the road.
The Bengals are 1-2 ATS this season, and they are 1-0 SU and 1-0 vs. the number at home.
New Englands starting QB, Tom Brady, has been on fire to start the season. Brady has thrown for 887 yards, 10 touchdowns and 1 interception. His QB rating is 141.8 with a completion rate of 79.5%. The ground game is led by Lawrence Maroney who has rushed for 252 yards (4.7 yards per carry). Randy Moss has led the receiving corps with 403 yards and 5 touchdowns.
Cincinnati is led by QB Carson Palmer. Palmer has thrown for 937 yards, 9 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. His QB rating is 97.3 and he has completed 64.0% of his passes. The Bengals starting RB Rudi Johnson is out for this game. He will be replaced by Kenny Watson. The Bengals leading receiver is Chad Johnson who has 442 yards and 3 touchdowns.
The Patriots are outrushing their opponents this season by a 152-74 yards-per-game average, while the Bengals being outrushed by their opponents by a 92-145 YPG margin.
New England is averaging 6.8 yards per play on the season while Cincinnati is averaging 5.8 yards per play. The Patriots defense has given up an average of 4.2 yards per play while the Bengals have given up an average of 6.4 yards per play.
New England ranks 1st in total offense averaging 441.0 yards per game. Cincinnati ranks 5th with 393.0 yards per game.
In scoring offense, the Patriots rank 2nd averaging 38.0 points per game and the Bengals rank 4th averaging 31.0 points per game.
On the defensive side of the ball the Patriots rank 1st in total defense giving up 207.0 yards per game while the Bengals rank 29th giving up an average of 302.7 yards per game.
In scoring defense New England ranks 3rd and Cincinnati ranks 29th giving up 11.7 and 31.7 points per game, respectively.
These two teams have last met on 10/01/06 with the Patriots winning in Cincinnati by a score of 38-13.
The Sagarin PREDICTOR ratings at USAToday.com ranks New England #1 at 34.67, Cincinnati is #12 at 20.94.
The Over/Under is 3-0 in Patriots games this season, 2-1 in Bengals games.
New England opened up as a 6 point favorite with a total of 52 at most books. The line has risen to New England -7 and the total has risen to 53.5. At the time of this writing, the public consensus picks were backing the Patriots 83%-17%.