Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-2) at Detroit Lions (3-2) -1, o/u 44.5 1:00 p.m. Eastern Sunday, October 21, Fox
by Jerald of Predictem.com
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Detroit Lions meet on Sunday where Tampy Bay will try to get sole possession of the NFC South and the Lions attempt to remain in contention in the NFC North. The Buccaneers are coming off a 13-10 win last week against Tennessee while the Lions had the week off.
The Buccaneers are 4-2 against the spread this season; they are 1-2 straight up and 1-2 ATS on the road.
The Lions are 2-2-1 ATS this season, and they are 2-0 SU and 1-0-1 vs. the number at home.
Tampa Bays starting QB Jeff Garcia has thrown for 1,188 yards, 5 touchdown and 0 interceptions. His QB rating is 103.6 with a completion rate of 66.7%. The Buccaneers have lost their top 2 RBs with Cadillac Williams and Michael Pittman both being lost to injury. Tampa Bay will look to Earnest Graham and the newly acquired Michael Bennett to man the rushing attack.
Detroit is led by QB Jon Kitna who has thrown for 1,333 yards, 8 touchdowns and 6 interceptions. His QB rating is 92.7 and he has completed 67.9% of his passes. The Lions ground attack has struggled so far this season and they will start Kevin Jones over Tatum Bell this week.
The Buccaneers are being outrushed by their opponents this season by a 99-119 yards-per-game average, while the Lions are being outrushed by their opponents by a 73-115 YPG margin.
Tampa Bay is averaging 5.8 yards per play on the season while Detroit is also averaging 5.8 yards per play. The Buccaneers defense has given up an average of 4.8 yards per play while the Lions have given up an average of 5.7 yards per play.
Tampa Bay ranks 25th in total offense averaging 297.0 yards per game. Detroit ranks 13th with 338.6.
In scoring offense, the Buccaneers rank 23rd averaging 18.0 points per game and the Lions rank 9th averaging 23.4 points per game.
On the defensive side of the ball the Buccaneers rank 12th in total defense giving up 314.0 yards per game while the Lions rank 29th giving up an average of 378.6 yards per game.
In scoring defense Tampa Bay ranks 5th and Detroit ranks 31st giving up 14.5 and 31.0 points per game, respectively.
These teams last met in 2005 with Tampa Bay winning 17-13.
The Sagarin PREDICTOR ratings at USAToday.com ranks Tampa Bay #12 at 21.54, Detroit is #21st at 17.10.
The Over/Under is 2-4 in Buccaneers games this season, 3-2 in Lions games.
Most sportsbooks opened up with the Detroit Lions as a 1 point favorite with a total of 43. The line has stayed at Detroit -1 and the total has risen to 44.5. At the time of this writing, the betting public was backing the Buccaneers 58%-42%.
The Jer’s Pick:
Detroit 24 Tampa Bay 17