AutoTrader 400 Prediction: Atlanta Home Cooking for Elliott?

Chase Elliot NASCAR Driver

Following a near-miss at Daytona, Georgia native Chase Elliott returns to his home track at EchoPark Speedway, where his elite 11.4 average finish makes him a primary threat.

Race Details

Race: AutoTrader 400
Date: Sunday, February 22, 2026
Track: EchoPark Speedway
Time: 3pm ET
Channel: FOX

What Did We Learn From Last Weekend?

Well, that wasn’t on my bingo card for the weekend! But that’s the way superspeedway racing goes. Tyler Reddick took the win on Sunday afternoon after a big wreck with barely a full lap left. Reddick made a bold move on the final lap, strategically getting to the inside line and winning by 0.308 seconds over former 500 winner Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

Behind him, it was chaos — which was to be expected in the closing moments of such a momentous race. Herbst attempted to execute a similar move to Reddick while blocking Brad Keselowski, but he wasn’t quite as clear. That led to the big one, yet the drivers involved were still determined to get to the finish line, most notably Ryan Preece crossing the line in reverse.

Despite being involved, Keselowski finished a very respectable fifth. It was a strange ending overall. Carson Hocevar was well-positioned to win but spun out in Turn 1, taking McDowell and Jones with him. Chase Elliott then took over and looked poised to lift the trophy, but the situation with Herbst unfolded, allowing Reddick to capitalize and take the win.

Behind Stenhouse, Logano, Elliott, and Keselowski rounded out the top five. Zane Smith earned an impressive sixth-place finish after contending all day through varying strategies. Buescher, Herbst, Berry, and Wallace completed the top ten.

Where Are We Headed This Weekend?

This weekend, drivers and teams head to Atlanta for a more “normal” stock car racing expectation. Daytona is exciting, but it doesn’t always showcase pure talent due to the wrecks that inevitably occur. Atlanta — now known as EchoPark Speedway — is a 1.540-mile quad oval with 28 degrees of banking in the turns and 5 degrees on the straights.

Last weekend’s strategy leaned heavily toward fuel mileage. Drafting at Daytona doesn’t require premium tires unless you fall out of the draft — and at that point, little can help. Atlanta, however, places much more emphasis on tire wear. While Daytona featured varied strategies, we’ll likely see more consistent tire calls this weekend. Whether teams opt for two tires or four remains to be seen, but tire management will play a crucial role throughout the race.

Odds and Value Picks

When it comes to picking a winner, Atlanta tends to favor drivers with speed. Daytona helps reveal who has that speed, and despite being just 1.54 miles, Atlanta carries high speeds throughout the track. Horsepower and momentum will matter as teams prepare for this weekend’s race.

Winner: Chase Elliott (+1400)

Elliott owns the second-best average finish among active drivers at this track, averaging 11.4 across 14 starts. He has two wins here, including one since 2023, and nine top-10 finishes in those 14 races. After barely missing out on the Daytona 500 win, Elliott enters the weekend highly motivated.

Mid-Range Pick: Kyle Busch (+1600)

Busch has the best average finish over the last six starts at this track, posting an 8.8 average with two top-five finishes. He also has the most starts at this track among active drivers with 32 career runs. Busch ranks sixth all-time in average finish at 13.1, with two wins and 10 top-five finishes. After showing speed and winning the pole at Daytona, Busch looks poised to rebound from a disappointing 2025 season.

Dark Horse: Carson Hocevar (+2500)

Hocevar was dominant last weekend and showed he’s ready to compete at a high level. In just four career starts at this track, he holds the fourth-best average finish among active drivers at 11.8, with two top-10 results. With confidence building after Daytona, Hocevar is a driver to watch — and soon, one to beat.

Points Update

Daytona rarely sets the tone for the full season, but it’s how the year begins. NASCAR has reverted to a Chase format with no eliminations: 16 drivers qualify after 26 races, with points resetting after the regular season.

Current Top 16 After Daytona:

  1. Tyler Reddick
  2. Joey Logano
  3. Chase Elliott
  4. Zane Smith