Who needs to do what in the next week+?

[wsox08]

is it me or are we usually trying to eliminate teams at this point and it seems like we are having a hard time finding 34 quality at-large teams.

agreed

I think the Cuse might slip in but not sure about Maryland..

edit: MD is a definite bubble, but they were in right after they beat UNC, but have slipped recently.

[FlyersFan]

is it me or are we usually trying to eliminate teams at this point and it seems like we are having a hard time finding 34 quality at-large teams.

[FlyersFan]

A tricky "science" this predicting is, and all of this can change in a day, two days. Conference tourneys this year though actually shouldn't have much of an effect at all with regard to "bid stealing". Conf USA (Memphis), the Horizon (Butler), and the Missouri Valley (Drake) are the only conferences where you can guarantee those parenthetical teams are going regardless. The Atlantic 10 could have a surprise, but it would probably come at the hands of one of its own teams in the end, same applies to the Mountain West in all liklihood, IMHO. Other possible trouble makers could be the Sun Belt with South Alabama losing in a final to Western Kentucky and the Mid American with Kent State losing in a final to Akron. I base things off RPI and SOS, non-conference RPI and SOS, conference record, Top 50 wins, Top 100 wins, and last 10 games..... Here's what I got:

One bid conferences no matter what happens in conference tourney: (17)
America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Colonial, Ivy League, MAAC, MEAC, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Patriot, Southern, Southland, SWAC, Summitt, WAC

Likely one bid conferences but "bid stealer" possibilities: (5)
Conference USA - Memphis (definitely in)
Horizon - Butler (definitely in)
Mid American - Kent State (could maybe get in with loss to Akron in conference final)
Missouri Valley - Drake (definitely in)
Sun Belt - South Alabama (could maybe get in with loss to Western Kentucky in conference final)

-------------> (22 bids)

Numbers are (RPI/SOS)
*** Teams in bold are in no matter what IMHO and those not are fringe teams still with work to do.
ACC (5) - North Carolina (3/4), Duke (4/8), Clemson (23/26), Miami (25/34), Maryland (65/16)
A-10 (3) - Xavier (6/18), Massachusetts (32/28), Saint Josephs (54/89)
BE (7) - Georgetown (7/42), Connecticut (12/13), Louisville (15/17), Notre Dame (21/73), Marquette (17/25), Pittsburgh (20/33), West Virginia (36/43)
B10 (5) - Wisconsin (14/51), Indiana (19/76), Purdue (29/85), Michigan State (13/52), Ohio State (48/49)
B12 (6) - Texas (5/3), Kansas (8/60), Kansas State (39/35), Oklahoma (28/6), Baylor (37/32), Texas A&M (44/77)
P10 (6) - UCLA (9/38), Stanford (22/105), Washington State (24/57), Arizona (16/1), USC (40/21), Arizona State (71/78)
SEC (4) - Tennessee (1/2), Vanderbilt (10/50), Mississippi State (41/53), Arkansas (38/45)
WCC (2) - Saint Marys (31/142), Gonzaga (35/96)
MWC (2) - BYU (27/92), UNLV (34/82)

THAT GROUP EQUATES TO 40 MORE BIDS, SO I HAVE THREE SPOTS LEFT:

1- One of Villanova or Syracuse will get one, IMHO prob Villanova
2- Another SEC school will get in, sadly maybe Kentucky
3- Southern Illinois is going to win the the MWC tourney I think and even if they don't their RPI-SOS is (50/10) and non-conference RPI-SOS is (54/4). They are very deserving.

Makes (65)

TEAMS LEFT OUT AND WHY:
Wake Forest - 3 Top 50 wins, but low numbers (67/95 conf) and (82/162 non conf)
Virginia Tech - 0 Top 50 wins... goodnight.
Dayton - If they win out they get to 8-8 in the A-10 and that just won't cut it no matetr how good their numbers are.
Rhode Island - Lost 3 in a row and really just played themselves out on their own.
Syracuse - 2-9 vs Top 50, 5 Top 100 wins. Deserve to be there, but won't even with (46/14 conf) and (32/19 non conf).
Oregon - Lost 8 of last 11 games and only 6-9 in conf. (57/9 conf) good, but (66/152 non conf) not.
Florida - Only one Top 50 win and only 3 Top 100 wins. (59/117 conf) and (99/202) are not good and awful.
Kentucky - Hard to deny, 3 Top 50 wins but no wins vs 51-100. (64/20 conf) and (203/97 non conf) not enough even at 9-3 SEC.
Mississippi - 4-8 in conference, goodnight. Even with 5 Top 50 wins, that's brutal.
Houston - 0 Top 50 wins, goodnight. Only 2 Top 100 wins and 18-0 against teams ranked 200-330. AKA -YOU SUCK.
UAB - 0 Top 50 wins, goodnight. Only 4 Top 100 wins, needed that win over Memphis.
New Mexico - 0 Top 50 wins, adios.

:thumbs:

cuse- good stuff...:thumbs:....my thoughts are

1) KENTST is in after the STMARYS win yesterday (barring a complete breakdown). Can't put STMARYS in and not them after that.

2) OlePIss isn't dead yet......I think MISSST, Vandy, Tennessee are solid then 1-2 more coming from ARK, KY and OlePiss. OlePiss is on the way out the door but i don't think they are completely dead yet.

3) UNLV doesn't have a signature win on their schedule other than the BYU win at home, and they turned around and were blasted by 30+ on the road at BYU which kind of negates the luster on that first win. They may have played a tough schedule but they didn't beat anyone. They need to get to the finals of their conference tourney, IMO, to be safe. And if somebody other than themselves and BYU win that tourney they won't get in, as that conference no fking way deserves 3 teams.

4) pretty much agree on everyone being left out and the whys.

[dananderson32]

as a wake fan they need to win the rest of their home games this year, and one of the last 2 on the road, and 1 in the conf. tourny in order to get a bid IMO..........

[CuseFan10]

Oh and FlyersFan - Your Ohio State boys are 1-8 vs the Top 50. They don't deserve to make it either, IMHO but I couldn't find anyone to replace them as of yet ya know? Like, Oregon is just flat our better than Ohio State, but they are buried in the Pac 10. Tough.

[CuseFan10]

What I Got

A tricky "science" this predicting is, and all of this can change in a day, two days. Conference tourneys this year though actually shouldn't have much of an effect at all with regard to "bid stealing". Conf USA (Memphis), the Horizon (Butler), and the Missouri Valley (Drake) are the only conferences where you can guarantee those parenthetical teams are going regardless. The Atlantic 10 could have a surprise, but it would probably come at the hands of one of its own teams in the end, same applies to the Mountain West in all liklihood, IMHO. Other possible trouble makers could be the Sun Belt with South Alabama losing in a final to Western Kentucky and the Mid American with Kent State losing in a final to Akron. I base things off RPI and SOS, non-conference RPI and SOS, conference record, Top 50 wins, Top 100 wins, and last 10 games..... Here's what I got:

One bid conferences no matter what happens in conference tourney: (17)
America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Colonial, Ivy League, MAAC, MEAC, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Patriot, Southern, Southland, SWAC, Summitt, WAC

Likely one bid conferences but "bid stealer" possibilities: (5)
Conference USA - Memphis (definitely in)
Horizon - Butler (definitely in)
Mid American - Kent State (could maybe get in with loss to Akron in conference final)
Missouri Valley - Drake (definitely in)
Sun Belt - South Alabama (could maybe get in with loss to Western Kentucky in conference final)

-------------> (22 bids)

Numbers are (RPI/SOS)
*** Teams in bold are in no matter what IMHO and those not are fringe teams still with work to do.
ACC (5) - North Carolina (3/4), Duke (4/8), Clemson (23/26), Miami (25/34), Maryland (65/16)
A-10 (3) - Xavier (6/18), Massachusetts (32/28), Saint Josephs (54/89)
BE (7) - Georgetown (7/42), Connecticut (12/13), Louisville (15/17), Notre Dame (21/73), Marquette (17/25), Pittsburgh (20/33), West Virginia (36/43)
B10 (5) - Wisconsin (14/51), Indiana (19/76), Purdue (29/85), Michigan State (13/52), Ohio State (48/49)
B12 (6) - Texas (5/3), Kansas (8/60), Kansas State (39/35), Oklahoma (28/6), Baylor (37/32), Texas A&M (44/77)
P10 (6) - UCLA (9/38), Stanford (22/105), Washington State (24/57), Arizona (16/1), USC (40/21), Arizona State (71/78)
SEC (4) - Tennessee (1/2), Vanderbilt (10/50), Mississippi State (41/53), Arkansas (38/45)
WCC (2) - Saint Marys (31/142), Gonzaga (35/96)
MWC (2) - BYU (27/92), UNLV (34/82)

THAT GROUP EQUATES TO 40 MORE BIDS, SO I HAVE THREE SPOTS LEFT:

1- One of Villanova or Syracuse will get one, IMHO prob Villanova
2- Another SEC school will get in, sadly maybe Kentucky
3- Southern Illinois is going to win the the MWC tourney I think and even if they don't their RPI-SOS is (50/10) and non-conference RPI-SOS is (54/4). They are very deserving.

Makes (65)

TEAMS LEFT OUT AND WHY:
Wake Forest - 3 Top 50 wins, but low numbers (67/95 conf) and (82/162 non conf)
Virginia Tech - 0 Top 50 wins... goodnight.
Dayton - If they win out they get to 8-8 in the A-10 and that just won't cut it no matetr how good their numbers are.
Rhode Island - Lost 3 in a row and really just played themselves out on their own.
Syracuse - 2-9 vs Top 50, 5 Top 100 wins. Deserve to be there, but won't even with (46/14 conf) and (32/19 non conf).
Oregon - Lost 8 of last 11 games and only 6-9 in conf. (57/9 conf) good, but (66/152 non conf) not.
Florida - Only one Top 50 win and only 3 Top 100 wins. (59/117 conf) and (99/202) are not good and awful.
Kentucky - Hard to deny, 3 Top 50 wins but no wins vs 51-100. (64/20 conf) and (203/97 non conf) not enough even at 9-3 SEC.
Mississippi - 4-8 in conference, goodnight. Even with 5 Top 50 wins, that's brutal.
Houston - 0 Top 50 wins, goodnight. Only 2 Top 100 wins and 18-0 against teams ranked 200-330. AKA -YOU SUCK.
UAB - 0 Top 50 wins, goodnight. Only 4 Top 100 wins, needed that win over Memphis.
New Mexico - 0 Top 50 wins, adios.

:thumbs:

[CuseFan10]

Yea no offense wsox, but I think you are a bit off on the power conferences and who deserves to go. The Pac 10 is getting 6 at the absolute minimum and they deserve 7, maybe even all 8.

I'm getting my stuff together now. You also left out Oklahoma which has great numbers. When I post mine, I'll try to give as much inf on each team as a I can via SOS, RPI and Top 50 wins vs teams like Houston who are like 14-0 against 200-318 are something ridiculous..

[wsox08]

wsox- one thing i can tell you almost certainlyis the Pac10 is a 6 bid league and maybe a 7 bid league and deservedly so. ASU belongs with a sweep of Arizona, a win over Xavier etc......both ASU and UAZ will get in barring a collapse. Then it is a battle between CAL and ORE to see if either team can make a huge run and get in.

OSU is currently playing themselves out of the tourney more and more as today goes on. I don't really want them to make it anyway because they won't win a game and are just wasting a spot.

Agree with a most of those...:thumbs:, but no way the ACC and Pac10 get the same amount of teams. ACC as cuse said really stinks and the Pac10 is IMO the best conference in hoops. There is not a conference in the NCAA's that has less freebies than the Pac10. Outside or OREST, they have 9 teams capable of beating anyone.

what about the Illini.....:laughing:....

yeah I would add ASU and Arizona.. but I have no been impressed with Oregon lately (blowing 2 games in the 2H), so I'd leave them out. I'm not too familiar with Cal but I would give the Pac 10 6 bids. I don't see OSU getting a bid by how they have been playing. They don't have any big wins and have lost to all the "good" teams they've played.


I was going to make an Illini joke but I figured it wouldn't have been funny.. Let's hope Wright State covers tonight :cross:

[FlyersFan]

wsox- one thing i can tell you almost certainlyis the Pac10 is a 6 bid league and maybe a 7 bid league and deservedly so. ASU belongs with a sweep of Arizona, a win over Xavier etc......both ASU and UAZ will get in barring a collapse. Then it is a battle between CAL and ORE to see if either team can make a huge run and get in.

OSU is currently playing themselves out of the tourney more and more as today goes on. I don't really want them to make it anyway because they won't win a game and are just wasting a spot.

Agree with a most of those...:thumbs:, but no way the ACC and Pac10 get the same amount of teams. ACC as cuse said really stinks and the Pac10 is IMO the best conference in hoops. There is not a conference in the NCAA's that has less freebies than the Pac10. Outside or OREST, they have 9 teams capable of beating anyone.

what about the Illini.....:laughing:....

[wsox08]

American East: (1) UMBC
ACC: (5) UNC, Duke, Wake Forest, Clemson, Miami
Atlantic Sun: (1), Belmont
A10:(1 or 2) Xavier, St. Joes?
Big East:(8) Georgetown, Louisville, Notre Dame, UConn, Marquette, West Virginia, Pittsburgh, Syracuse?
Big Sky: (1) Portland State
Big South: (1) Winthrop
Big Ten: (4) Wisconsin, Purdue, Indiana, Michigan State
Big 12: (5)Texas, Kansas, Kansas State, Texas AM, Baylor?
Big West: (1) Fullerton/Northridge
CAA: (1) VCU
CUSA: (1) Memphis
Horizon: (1) Butler
Ivy: (1) Cornell
MAAC: (1) Niagara/Rider/Siena
MAC: (1) Kent State, (add another team if Kent doesn't win conference tourney)
MEAC: (1) Morgan State
Missouri Valley: (1) Drake
Mountain West: (1) BYU
Northeast: (1) Robert Morris
Ohio Valley: (1) Austin Peay
Pac 10: (5) UCLA, Stanford, Washington State, USC, Arizona/ASU
Patriot: (1) American
SEC: (5) Tennessee, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State, Arkansas
Southern: (1) Davidson
Southland: (1) Lamar
Summit: (1) Oral Roberts
Sun Belt: (1) South Alabama
SWAC: (1) Alabama State
WAC: (1) Boise State
WCC: (2) St. Mary's, Gonzaga

I have 57 here ( think)..

A10 is tough. UMass won at Syracuse, at BC, but loses to StJoes twice, and at Temple, and home vs. Fordham are bad losses.
Rhode Island has played themselves out of the tourney by losing 4 of last 5.
I guess if I had to I would put Xavier automatically, and maybe just the team that wins the conference tourney in.

ACC: Maryland has played themselves out of the tourney recently.

BigTen: At this time I don't have OSU in but if they go to Indiana and win and either beat Purdue/MSU at home then I might change my mind.

Baylor is up in the air. I would slip them in after they just beat KSU, but losses to OK twice, and Texas twice don't help.

Arizona has had a tough schedule and I would put them in over ASU but ASU beat them twice so I'm unsure about that.

[FlyersFan]

and Houston has no business even getting consideration if you ask me.

:thumbs: ....maybe one of the worst schedules in any league....they did play UAZ at home and were taken to task for much of that game. They lost to the only 3 even semi-decent teams on their docket. KY win shouldn't garner much consideration because that was a completely differnent KY team.

I am also not one who puts weight on a win based on the name on the jersey. If you beat LOU in November without Padgett, so what. If you beat KY in mid December, so what.

[CuseFan10]

FF- Much of what you say I d o agree with. It's hard to put a team like Dayton in with a .500 conference record, and there's simply no way on Earth they get with an under .500 record. The only reason the A-10 is getting so much consideration is because the ACC sucks and really only has 4 deserving teams with Maryland's collapse.

Those A-10 teams, IMHO, are better than like Houston and/or UAB. If Houston gets in, it's a crime. They are the epitome of soft scheduling and haven't beaten one good team all year. Leaving Syracuse out last year better have set a precedent that you need to play people, and Houston has no business even getting consideration if you ask me.

[FlyersFan]

The A-10 RPI numbers are VERY STRONG and they are overall the 7th rated conference (meaning first of the non-BCS). Xavier and UMass ar firmly in right now, IMO (unless UMass chokes - they are 32 RPI and 28 SOS), and when looking at Dayton (33 RPI, 39 SOS) the committee has to take into account the loss of Wright. The problem with Dayton is that they are 5-7 in conference and they simply don't deserve to make it because of that alone.

The A-10 gets 2 minimum, three possible IMHO. Couple weeks ago they had a lock on four bids I thought but they've blown it.

see i guess i don't get it. UMASS is 17-9 and 6-6 in a very average league, IMO. Their only decent win was at SYR and SYR is a fringe team. They lost to X at home who, IMO, is the only legit team in that conference. DAY does have injuries and as an Ohio guy i would love to see X and DAY make it. But DAY is 5-7 in conference and has lost 6 of L8 games or something like that. And we have seen in the past where some years RPI really matters and other years it doesn't. UMASS' SOS isn't going to be helped by their L4 games. I think that if DAY or UMASS make a run deep in the A-10 tourney they are in. But if they lose in the first round or 2, no way they make it in my world.

I mean seriously...look at the schedules for the top half of the A-10 and find me the quality wins...:dunno:...STJOES beat Villanova and that's about it. DAY did have wins over PIT and LOU but PIT had just had all those injuries themselves and LOU clearly wasn't the LOU they are now. But good wins none the less.

I guess i really don't get conference RPI because most of those teams beat a bunch of nobodys

[CuseFan10]

The A-10 RPI numbers are VERY STRONG and they are overall the 7th rated conference (meaning first of the non-BCS). Xavier and UMass ar firmly in right now, IMO (unless UMass chokes - they are 32 RPI and 28 SOS), and when looking at Dayton (33 RPI, 39 SOS) the committee has to take into account the loss of Wright. The problem with Dayton is that they are 5-7 in conference and they simply don't deserve to make it because of that alone.

The A-10 gets 2 minimum, three possible IMHO. Couple weeks ago they had a lock on four bids I thought but they've blown it.

[Nigel Tufnel]

Well, Flyers, you earlier compared Dayton's at large chances to NJIT or whomever. But truth be told....Dayton is 34 in the RPI with a SOS of 39. If they can beat Xavier and St. Joe at home, to .500 in league or even a game above .500, win one game in the A10 tourney, then they may very well be in as an at large. Not to mention that they beat Louisville and Pitt in non conference play. That's a lot of "ifs" but their at large chances aren't completely gone. They also get the injury losses consideration too.

X is in...if X doesn't win the conference tourney, then there are obviously 2 teams in. A lot depends on these last couple of weeks and the A10 tourney.

Any combination of Xavier, A10 tourney winner if not X and UMass, St. Joe, URI or Dayton are possible, albeit not likely.

I'm interested to see if X can get a 2 seed. Current RPI of 6 with SOS at 18. I think if X wins out, they are a lock for a 2 seed at 30-4 and a top 5 RPI likely. If X can win out with the exception of @ St. Joe's, then they may still have a shot at the 2 seed.

Should be fun.