Discussion Saturday

[FlyersFan]

Not sure I'd pick against X today, Flyers. They are playing with quite a bit of confidence after beating Florida on the road last weekend and absolutely killing St. Joe's. I think the key to this game will be Xavier's front line against Charlotte. X is much bigger and more physical in the paint than Charlotte and Jason Love and Jamel McLean are playing as well as they've played all year.

In their first game this year, Charlotte shot 2-22 from the 3 point line. If they come out hitting their threes, it could be a very tough game for X. Its hard to predict how a team is going to shoot from deep. Also, if Love, McLean or Frease get 2 quick fouls at the beginning of the game (a la @ UD a couple weeks ago), X could also be in for a nail biter.

Recent history indicates that X really turns in on down the stretch in the league. They appear to be doing that right now after the Dayton debacle a couple of weeks ago. Jordan Crawford has been doing a really nice job recently getting the big men more involved and not forcing shots. He has been letting the game come to him, looking to get others involved and he's still getting his 20 points per game.

Halton Arena will be rocking today. This is a pretty huge conference game....definitely HUGE for Charlotte. X can likely seal an NCAA bid with a win today, barring some type of total meltdown.

Like I said, you can never predict if a team is going to come out and be on fire from the three point line. I guess I think there is a higher probability that X can dominate the paint and Crawford can control the game moreso than Charlotte being on fire from 22 feet.

Think X pulls away late with free throws and wins by 7-10 points.

honestly Nigel I heard you but i wasn't listening...lol....i should have layed off of Charlotte aafter what you guys said as i really am not an A-10 guy. I have done all my damage this year in the ACC, SEC, Big10 and Pac10 for the most part (some MVC). I even saw Charlotte play a couple of times and wasn't impressed but i guess i had the same feeling on the UNCC game that i did on the NCST game in that just because one team is better and playing welll doesn't mean they are going to grab an easy road win.

and that UW 1H was probably the best spot play of the year and i really can't believe people didn't jump on that. You had UW playing their last home game coming off a rare and awful loss at home. UCLA coming off a road win and a game that they basically were about as great as great could be, and UCLA draws a bulls eye from UW everytime they go up there (lost 5 straight and on their way to 6 in a row at UW). No way UCLA was going to play another super elevated game and no way was UW going to lose another at home. Keep in mind UW dismantled ASU who is 8-5 in 2nd place in the pac10 and beat CAL by DD who is in first place in the pac10.


anyhow, good day overall. hope everyone had a profitable day.

[Nigel Tufnel]

Most teams in power conferences shooting stats get worse in the conference season....Xs got better which says something about the A10.

Don't disagree with this at all, but I also think it might say something about X's non-conference schedule. Their non-conference SOS was 3rd in the RPI. Probably also has something to do with X losing 3 starters and their head coach. I think it took some time for X to gel and get things rolling. But I think you're right...it is a bit of an indictment on the A10...while I think they are a good conference this year, I'm not convinced the A10 will make a good showing in the NCAA tourney this year, regardless of how many teams make the tourney. I'm not even sold on Temple...I'm not sure what they have to do to impress me, but they had to shoot 60% from the field to beat X by 5 points in Philly earlier this year. I've got myself pretty convinced that the A10's number of bids will be a pretty big story going into the tourney, but I also think after the first weekend another story will be their lack of success in the first weekend. Hope I'm wrong...we'll see.

On to more pressing matters, I've also pretty much convinced myself that barring some kind of matchup nightmares, I'm just going to pencil Purdue into the Elite 8 and likely the Final Four....since I have historically sucked at my brackets, how much are you going to pay me to have Purdue out in the first or second round in my brackets? LOL. Am being serious about my feelings about Purdue's success in the tourney this year.

[BoilerBacker]

The season is almost over....I think that means that you have to take X's shooting percentage against the good teams they've played in the A10 too, not just cherry pick Fordham and St. Joe's...they haven't played Bonny yet.

It will be an interesting game. It does set up nicely for Charlotte, but in the first game Frease was 2-2, Love 5-7 and McLean 2-4 from the field. Right now, McLean is playing much better than he was in the first game against Charlotte. I think X's big men can really make the difference today. At the same time, like I previously posted, if Charlotte comes out firing from 3, then it could get rough for X.

Just like X's confidence and play right now. I'm hoping they realized from the win @ Florida that they can go on the road and beat a decent team. Maybe they've got over the hump from this year's previous road woes. Again, if its close, X is pretty solid from the line. That always helps.

Boiler, I think you're still just mad about X beating Purdue in the tourney a few years ago....:laughing: j/k. Speaking of Purdue, it amazes me that this year's team is nearly the exact same team X played 3 years ago in the tourney. I expect big things from this experienced Purdue team in the tourney.

Either way...GL!!

Just to be clear, I wasnt cherry picking. Matter of fact, I did not look at the stats vs. the bottom of the A10. My point was I do not care what X's stats are in the conference because half of the conf is just not that good. Most teams in power conferences shooting stats get worse in the conference season....Xs got better which says something about the A10. It is much more valuable to look at the defense of the team they are playing, esp in a road game.

I was wrong on that opinion, which happens. I did not play Charlotte, but I thought X was a risky play.

The top teams in the A10 are good teams....dont want anyone to misunderstand.

Nice win you guys.... :thumbs:

[Franchise]

Nigel...X should win by atleast 5-7 at SLU when they matchup. SLU is not nearly in the same league athletically and I have watched their last few games. They have been better than Charlotte in the last month and the Chaifetz center is a tough arena but SLU was very lucky to even be in the game vs Dayton (Dayton coughed up a 15 pt half time lead in 3 minutes due to chucking 3's and an 8 pt lead in the last 2 minutes with their pull it out and stall offense) and URI also crapped down their legs and missed 5 or 6 FT's in the last 3-4 minutes when the game was still in the balance. SLU has also been shooting exceptionally on 3's and they are due for their reliance on that to not be there against these top level teams when they need it. SLU also relies on hedging screens on defense with an aggressive bump on the pg by the big. This worked against Dayton and URI since their pg's were not aggressively hitting the big to draw a foul. From what I have seen from Holloway his little bitch ass would seem to love drawing multiples fouls in any way possible. So between him and Crawford I would guess they will get what limited size SLU has in foul trouble both out front and by throwing the ball inside to score. Dayton was able to dominate the paint and Searcy and Huelsman aren't 1/5th the offensive force of the X post players. As for when SLU plays Temple, Temple's strong defense should be able to choke off a SLU offense that isn't very dynamic and depends on Mitchell and hitting lots of 3's. I would be shocked if SLU wins either of those games as they have needed a lot of breaks to beat URI and Dayton, two teams that aren't nearly as strong on the road as Temple and X.

For UD tomorrow I am interested to see the opening line. Duquesne has been playing much better lately, and I expected a lot more out of them this season. After their run to the A10 championship game I thought they would build on that but losing Bolding and then choking away the Pitt game really seemed to affect them early in the season. Dayton hasn't played great on the road (atleast not as good as at home) but they haven't been nearly as bad this year as years past. They probably overlooked St Joe's although Temple was in the same spot against Joe's today and got the shot to go down to force OT. While SLU was a game that UD just gave away. Other than that they have won @ George Mason(I believe only team to this point, ODU got rolled there) and they played Nova and K St to single digit games on the road that were 1 possesion games at the 2 minute mark. They also went into New Mexico and covered the entire game before losing by 2. I think tomorrow Dayton gets their W that will stamp their ticket for the dance with everyone else on the bubble losing games to inferior competition. If UD is laying less than 4 I'm all over it. They should have Fabrizius back tomorrow and he is a huge lift for their offensive droughts.

[Nigel Tufnel]

more homer insight.

Terps and Over.

If that was directed at me, ouch...lol. The refs in the X game made some pretty atrocious calls, the majority of which went against Charlotte. But I don't think that some bad calls in the second half made a difference in this one.

X shot 52% from the field, 80% from the line and McLean was a monster with 14 and 11. When things would get a little dicey, Crawford took over and finished with 23 pts, 4 rebs and 6 assists. I'm wrong more often than not and not trying to suck my own dick, but this game went kind of how I thought it would. Plus, I agree with Franchise that Charlotte had been living on the edge in the A10.

Next game for X @ SLU....probably won't see any homerism from me. That one is going to be TOUGH!!

GL!

[FlyersFan]

i am on UNCC +2 1/2 1H and NCST 1H....agree with Boiler on both of those and liked them both to start with.

[FearTheRaven]

more homer insight.

Terps and Over.

[Nigel Tufnel]

It doesnt really matter if X shoots 48% vs crap like Fordham or St Bonny or St Joes. Charlotte only gives up 41%. X made 10 of its first 15 shots vs. Charlotte in the first game.

The season is almost over....I think that means that you have to take X's shooting percentage against the good teams they've played in the A10 too, not just cherry pick Fordham and St. Joe's...they haven't played Bonny yet.

It will be an interesting game. It does set up nicely for Charlotte, but in the first game Frease was 2-2, Love 5-7 and McLean 2-4 from the field. Right now, McLean is playing much better than he was in the first game against Charlotte. I think X's big men can really make the difference today. At the same time, like I previously posted, if Charlotte comes out firing from 3, then it could get rough for X.

Just like X's confidence and play right now. I'm hoping they realized from the win @ Florida that they can go on the road and beat a decent team. Maybe they've got over the hump from this year's previous road woes. Again, if its close, X is pretty solid from the line. That always helps.

Boiler, I think you're still just mad about X beating Purdue in the tourney a few years ago....:laughing: j/k. Speaking of Purdue, it amazes me that this year's team is nearly the exact same team X played 3 years ago in the tourney. I expect big things from this experienced Purdue team in the tourney.

Either way...GL!!

[BoilerBacker]

Yes, the game does setup perfect for Charlotte if people believe they deserve to be in the top of the league. They have been very fortunate in their league games where they have outscored league opponents by 6 points yet are 8-3 while X has outscored opponents by 138. X is a significantly better team and at full strength. Xavier has shot 48% in all league games so 53% really isn't out of line.

It doesnt really matter if X shoots 48% vs crap like Fordham or St Bonny or St Joes. Charlotte only gives up 41%. X made 10 of its first 15 shots vs. Charlotte in the first game.

[PhilRivers]

The line is telling me to take Wake Forest. NC State is unable to handle adversity and you can believe Gaudio's squad will give them plenty of it. They are a mentally weak team. I agree the line looks "fishy" but I wouldn't try to over think this one.

[Franchise]

Yes, the game does setup perfect for Charlotte if people believe they deserve to be in the top of the league. They have been very fortunate in their league games where they have outscored league opponents by 6 points yet are 8-3 while X has outscored opponents by 138. X is a significantly better team and at full strength. Xavier has shot 48% in all league games so 53% really isn't out of line.

[Giraldo5]

I'm playing Wake for sure. NC State looked dreadful in that 2H vs Maryland because of how quick Vazquez was and Smith is even quicker plus Aminu makes this an easy choice for me

[BoilerBacker]

Played NC State earlier this week vs. Md and will probably do so again today. NC State is only a 1.5 pt dog to a top 25 team and they have a 5 gm losing streak..... line is telling you something guys.....

[BoilerBacker]

Perfect setup for Charlotte. X off huge win, Charlotte off bad loss and and home with 2 game losing streak. Throw in a little revenge from a 12 pt loss in Cincy, a game where X shot 53%

[PhilRivers]

WF -1' /NC St - This line looks a little too easy but Wake has played well on the road. I think too much credit is being given to the home team.

I completely agree. lol unless this game is fixed I don't see any way that NC State stops Ish Smith and co.

But realistically the only way I can see NC State winning is if they take the lead from the very beginning of the game and never give it up. That's a lot to ask from the worst team in the conference. When this team gets behind they immediately go into panic mode and their coach nor players have any clue how to regain their composure.