JoePa's MAC Football Preview

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3) BUFFALO BULLS

THE SKINNY –

A 5-7 record in 2007, the most in the school's Division I-A/Football Bowl Subdivision history – and grabbing a share of the MAC East title indicates significant progress in Buffalo. Season ticket sales have reportedly increased along with an 86% renewal rate and a waiting list was implemented for suites at UB Stadium. It’s talk about the Bulls now, not the Bills who haven't been to the Super Bowl since 1994.

With 10 starters back on offense and eight on defense, the Bulls are looking to keep that buzz growing this season. The Bulls planted those seeds of optimism with a 4-3 finish to the 2007 season. After starting the year 1-4, with non-league losses to Rutgers, Penn State and Baylor, UB picked up consecutive wins over Ohio and Toledo to get things started and finished October 3-1, and suddenly found themselves competing for a MAC title.

Despite all the optimism, realistically the Bulls are competing in a conference dominated by Central Michigan, and are mired in a log jam of perennial East division teams who are also loaded once again….Bowling Green and Miami, OH return nearly all of it’s starters from a year ago.

Still, 18 starters are back for a Bulls squad that finished 2007 by winning four of their last seven games including an OT win over Kent State in their season finale. And, head coach Turner Gill like the physicality of his team and says this the 2008 Bulls are his fastest team to date with a complimentary mix of talented youth and returnees.

A brutal schedule at the outset has the Bulls facing three stiff road games against teams that will be both conference and bowl contenders in Pitt, Missouri, and Central Michigan, sandwiched around home games with UTEP and Temple. Road games in the conference include visits to Akron, Bowling Green and Ohio. Hopefully QB Drew Willy can make it through that early schedule unscathed because without him at the helm their offense would be stuck in neutral. Willy led the MAC in pass completion percentage last season at 68.4%, with 15 TDs and just 6 INTs, and setting a school record for completions in a season with 258 (34 of those against Kent State along with a career high 334 yards). He was named MAC East Offensive Player of the Week and needs 2035 yards to establish himself at the premier passer in Buffalo history.

James Starks also returns as the Bulls top running threat, and as a sophomore last year he became UB’s first-ever D-1A 1,000 yard rusher. He set a school record with 251 carries and 1,103 yards, 14 TDs (12 on the ground) and earned national attention with 231 yards on 34 carries in a 43-33 win over Toledo. Starks did suffer a slight wrist fracture in July and will hopefully be a full strength for UTEP.

Defensively the Bulls gave up just 112 points in East Division games last season, and ranked fourth in the MAC for points allowed. They did lose three defensive starters and are thin at linebacker. You have to be tough up the middle in football and sophomore LB Fred Branch is lost for the season after back surgery, and their two-deep chart is littered with 3 untested underclassmen. Recruit Darius Willis, a top LB prospect did not qualify academically and cannot re-enroll until January. DE Orlando Toussaint was also suspended for the entire season due to academic difficulties.

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2) BOWLING GREEN FALCONS

THE SKINNY -

When the Falcons suffered through a 4-8 season in 2006, their first losing season since 2000, they found themselves mired at 4-4 heading into the home stretch of the 2007 season and were destined to finish 5th as the preseason pundits had predicted. The Falcons did not stay down for long, though and aided by a resurgent running attack stormed back with a 4-0 finish in November to finish 8-4 overall and 6-2 in the MAC East Division to earn a trip to the GMAC Bowl. Unfortunately their trip to Mobile was an ugly 63-7 whooping from Tulsa.

The Falcons are looking to raise the bar even higher this season with 19 starters back. On offense, BGSU has eight starters back, led by junior quarterback Tyler Sheehan who started all 13 games for the Falcons and became the fourth signal caller in school history to throw for 3,000 yards. Sheen completed 303/467 passes for 3,264 yards and 23 TDs and 11 INTs for an offense that finished second in the MAC in passing (278.8 yards per game) and first downs (299), ranked fourth in total offense (402.5ypg), second in first downs (299), and fourth in third-down conversions (41.1%).

Running back by committee, Anthony Turner—a converted QB—led the rushing attack with 519 yards, Willie Geter added 432 yards, and Chris Bullock 281. More importantly, the Turner made 22 receptions and Geter 37, the third highest on the team, which makes the tandem a factor in the running and passing games. Wideouts Freddie Barnes, 82 catches for 962 yards and 9 TDs, and Corey Partridge, 46 catches for 453 yards and 2 TDs will also be key.

Key early season matchups are roadies at Pitt, Boise State and Wyoming, a but the MAC slate if favorable with no Ball State, CMU or WMU in sight. They do have home games against their two biggest East Division rivals Miami,OH and Ball State—a combined 11-4 in the MAC last season, but their remaining games include MAC teams, EMU, KSU, Akron, Ohio, Toledo, and NIU who were a combined 15-31 in league play last season.

BG must replace three starters on the offensive line, including a center drafted by the Denver Broncos. But the real key is the defense that did not stop the run effectively and lost the turnover battle to opponents. In 2007 MAC opponents averaged 4.7ypc and 208ypg, probably a reason why the BG defense ranked third in the MAC in pass defense (216.6). Although the Falcons return nine starters and eight of their top nine tacklers, The D-Line is thin with the indefinite suspension of two starters, and although they have small but quick linebackers, they are not run stoppers. Converted safety Jerett Sanderson who had 73 tackles was moved to linebacker to help cover slot receivers. DBs Jahmal Brown and PJ Mahone had 83 and 90 tackles in 2007, and Mahone added 7 INTs even though he wasn’t a starter until halfway through the season.

BG allowed the most points in intra-division play (177) but also scored the most vs. East division opponents (195). They were the third highest scoring team in the MAC in 2007 with 271 points trailing only Toledo and Central Michigan. However, the Falcons must overcome the turnover bug that bit them last season. In BG’s eight wins last season they were +15 in turnover margin, while in their 5 losses they were -14 including 6 INTs vs. Boston College and 4 fumbles vs. Tulsa.

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MAC EAST DIVISION

1) MIAMI,OH REDHAWKS

THE SKINNY -

It's not often a team plays in their conference championship game but fails to qualify for a bowl bid. But that's what happened to Miami last year, and they have no one to blame but themselves. Coming off its worst season in more than a decade (2-10), Miami rebounded to finish 5-2 in the MAC in 2007, but a two-game season-ending losing skid cost the RedHawks a chance of making their first bowl appearance since 2004. Within those two losses was a season ending loss to Ohio and 31-10 crushing by Central Michigan in the MAC championship, and a 6-7 final record.

Miami, by the way, is the MAC's all-time winning football program with 259 conference victories (.660 winning percentage), 14 conference titles and nine bowl appearances. But all they could do was sit at home and think about the things that did go right for them.

Defense—that was the key to Miami’s friend last season, and defense led them to a 14-13 win over Ball State by stymieing a late drive, defense stopped a late Syracuse try for a score as Miami won 17-14 after two blowout losses, defense helped them throttle Bowling Green 47-14, and defense pitched a 7-0 shutout against Akron. And on defense they have nine returning starters the MAC’s top trio of linebackers who accounted for 345 tackles, and seven sacks as their linebackers, Clayton Mullins, Joey Hudson and Caleb Bostic finished as the top three tacklers on the team. Mullins topped the MAC in tackles with 11 per game (143 total) and finished as one of the top ten tacklers in the NCAA. The RedHawks defense was tops in scoring defense allowing just 130 points in conference play (allowing 18.5ppg) and were second in total defense. They were also the best MAC sack attack recorded 32 for 255 yards in losses. The defense will be a force with nine returning starters, but how about the offense.

The RedHawks couldn’t get out of neutral at times last year with injuries at QB and RB, and ranked 11th in the MAC and 108th in the nation in scoring averaging just 19ppg. Dan Radabaugh took over after starting QB Mike Kokal broke his leg and wasn’t much better than his predecessor who threw seven INTs and just one TD through the first seven games. The QBs were rendered ineffective because the running game struggled through the season with a 85th nationally and eighth ranked MAC rushing average of 130.7ypg. The reason for their struggle—RB Brandon Murphy was lost for the second straight season to injury, while his two platooning replacements could average just 82 yards between them. Junior Andre Bratton, who was lost for the season in the game with Cincinnati, led UM in 2006 with a 4.5ypc average.

If Radabaugh doesn’t step up, look out for freshman recruit Zac Dysert to make an impact. Dysert led Ada High School (OH) as the #2 all-time passer with 11,174 yards after a 3,714/35TD senior season even though he missed three games with a broken thumb.

The bright spots for the offense might be the fact that they have three 300+lb. linemen and some talented young receivers. Eugene Harris topped the team last year with 542 yards and was RedHawk freshman of the year. WR Chris Givens is a multi-position receivers and caught 25 passes for 430 yards last season also as a freshman. Sophomore Armand Robinson led the receivers with three TD. Miami is just a couple of players on offense away from a return to MAC glory.

Miami must make it through a home opener with Vanderbilt and two road games against Michigan and Cincinnati before they open their MAC season in October. They do get Ball State, Ohio, and Kent at home, but face their toughest tests on the road at Toledo, Bowling Green and Buffalo.