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Sovereignty Headlines Compact but Classy Field in Jim Dandy Stakes
Jim Dandy S. (G2) | Saratoga, Race 10 | Saturday, July 26, 2025
Purse: $500,000 | Distance: 1 1/8 Miles | Surface: Dirt
Post Time: 5:41 p.m. ET | Travers Prep
Jim Dandy Stakes Picks
Jim Dandy Stakes Analysis
The 2025 Jim Dandy Stakes may have drawn only five horses, but it will command national attention as Sovereignty, the dual classic winner of both the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes, returns to action in a key summer test leading up to the Grade 1 Travers.
While most eyes will be on the likely heavy favorite, the small but salty field includes a pair of classic-placed rivals looking to close the gap, a front-running New York-bred trying to steal it on the lead, and a talented closer hoping for a late pace meltdown. With contrasting styles and plenty of back class, this Jim Dandy shapes up as more than just a one-horse parade.
With wins in both the Derby and Belmont under different pace scenarios, Sovereignty enters the Jim Dandy as the undisputed top 3-year-old in the country. His Derby performance showed he could come from far back and mow down elite competition, while his Belmont effort was a more tactical, pace-pressing victory that revealed another dimension.
The Bill Mott trainee has been training steadily at Saratoga and returns off a 7-week freshening. A win here won’t surprise anyone, but how he wins, and how much effort it takes, could shape the Travers picture. He’s never run a bad race, but this is his first start since back-to-back Grade 1 grinds. All signs point to a colt still on the rise, but at very short odds, bettors may need to look elsewhere for value.
Baeza finished third in both the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes behind Sovereignty. He hasn’t been able to get past the champ yet, but his efforts have been solid and consistent. The son of McKinzie draws the rail here and gets in light at 120 pounds, four fewer than Sovereignty. He projects to get a ground-saving trip under Hector Berrios and could be poised to make a run if the favorite isn’t fully cranked.
We thought Baeza would be overrated after his runner-up finish to Journalism in the Santa Anita Derby, and we were right, but trainer John Shirreffs, who conditioned superstar Zenyatta, knows what he’s doing, and this horse could improve again.
After a third-place finish in the Preakness, Sandman has been given time to regroup and comes into the Jim Dandy off a 10-week layoff. Blinkers go on, a sign that trainer Mark Casse is looking for more early engagement from the big Tapit colt.
Sandman has shown flashes of top-tier ability, including a Grade 1 win earlier this year in the Arkansas Derby, and his pedigree suggests improvement with age and distance. He’s reportedly added muscle during the break, and if the blinkers sharpen his focus, he could be a serious threat to Sovereignty if the pace gets muddled.
Mo Plex may not have the resume of the others, but he brings an important tactical edge. He’s the only true speed horse in the field, and if the track is favoring speed on Saturday at Saratoga, he could go a long way on the front end. After pressing and pouncing in the Grade 3 Ohio Derby, the New York-bred colt returns to his home state trying to carry his speed against tougher company.
His fractions in past races suggest he could be loose early, and in a five-horse field, that’s no small advantage. He’ll need to take a step forward on the speed figures to win, but if the big names hesitate or play cat and mouse behind him, Mo Plex could give them the slip.
A winner of the Peter Pan and a decent fifth in the Belmont, Hill Road rounds out the field as the most pace-dependent runner. He’s a one-run closer who will be hoping for a mid-race scramble or a battle on the turn for home. On paper, the race shape doesn’t help him, but if things get messy, he could clunk up for a minor share.
Trained by Chad Brown and ridden by Irad Ortiz Jr., Hill Road has the connections to make noise, but this may be a stepping stone to bigger fall targets.
Mo Plex is the only confirmed early speed. Sovereignty, Sandman, and Baeza all prefer to sit just off the pace, while Hill Road will trail early and hope for help late. The likely scenario has Mo Plex leading into the far turn with Sovereignty poised to pounce. If the favorite doesn’t fire, any of the other three could find themselves in position to capitalize.
Sovereignty is the best horse in the field and should win if he runs his race, but that doesn’t mean he can’t be challenged. Baeza offers upside with a weight break and improved trip, Sandman brings freshness and new equipment, and Mo Plex's lone-speed status makes him a wildcard. The champ is back, but this tune-up may be more revealing than the toteboard suggests.
We’ll take Sovereignty on top of Baeza and Mo Plex in the exacta and reverse it for one third of the amount.
Just in case.
Jim Dandy S. (G2) | Saratoga, Race 10 | Saturday, July 26, 2025
Purse: $500,000 | Distance: 1 1/8 Miles | Surface: Dirt
Post Time: 5:41 p.m. ET | Travers Prep
Jim Dandy Stakes Picks
- Sovereignty
- Baeza
- Mo Plex
Jim Dandy Stakes Analysis
The 2025 Jim Dandy Stakes may have drawn only five horses, but it will command national attention as Sovereignty, the dual classic winner of both the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes, returns to action in a key summer test leading up to the Grade 1 Travers.
While most eyes will be on the likely heavy favorite, the small but salty field includes a pair of classic-placed rivals looking to close the gap, a front-running New York-bred trying to steal it on the lead, and a talented closer hoping for a late pace meltdown. With contrasting styles and plenty of back class, this Jim Dandy shapes up as more than just a one-horse parade.
With wins in both the Derby and Belmont under different pace scenarios, Sovereignty enters the Jim Dandy as the undisputed top 3-year-old in the country. His Derby performance showed he could come from far back and mow down elite competition, while his Belmont effort was a more tactical, pace-pressing victory that revealed another dimension.
The Bill Mott trainee has been training steadily at Saratoga and returns off a 7-week freshening. A win here won’t surprise anyone, but how he wins, and how much effort it takes, could shape the Travers picture. He’s never run a bad race, but this is his first start since back-to-back Grade 1 grinds. All signs point to a colt still on the rise, but at very short odds, bettors may need to look elsewhere for value.
Baeza finished third in both the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes behind Sovereignty. He hasn’t been able to get past the champ yet, but his efforts have been solid and consistent. The son of McKinzie draws the rail here and gets in light at 120 pounds, four fewer than Sovereignty. He projects to get a ground-saving trip under Hector Berrios and could be poised to make a run if the favorite isn’t fully cranked.
We thought Baeza would be overrated after his runner-up finish to Journalism in the Santa Anita Derby, and we were right, but trainer John Shirreffs, who conditioned superstar Zenyatta, knows what he’s doing, and this horse could improve again.
After a third-place finish in the Preakness, Sandman has been given time to regroup and comes into the Jim Dandy off a 10-week layoff. Blinkers go on, a sign that trainer Mark Casse is looking for more early engagement from the big Tapit colt.
Sandman has shown flashes of top-tier ability, including a Grade 1 win earlier this year in the Arkansas Derby, and his pedigree suggests improvement with age and distance. He’s reportedly added muscle during the break, and if the blinkers sharpen his focus, he could be a serious threat to Sovereignty if the pace gets muddled.
Mo Plex may not have the resume of the others, but he brings an important tactical edge. He’s the only true speed horse in the field, and if the track is favoring speed on Saturday at Saratoga, he could go a long way on the front end. After pressing and pouncing in the Grade 3 Ohio Derby, the New York-bred colt returns to his home state trying to carry his speed against tougher company.
His fractions in past races suggest he could be loose early, and in a five-horse field, that’s no small advantage. He’ll need to take a step forward on the speed figures to win, but if the big names hesitate or play cat and mouse behind him, Mo Plex could give them the slip.
A winner of the Peter Pan and a decent fifth in the Belmont, Hill Road rounds out the field as the most pace-dependent runner. He’s a one-run closer who will be hoping for a mid-race scramble or a battle on the turn for home. On paper, the race shape doesn’t help him, but if things get messy, he could clunk up for a minor share.
Trained by Chad Brown and ridden by Irad Ortiz Jr., Hill Road has the connections to make noise, but this may be a stepping stone to bigger fall targets.
Mo Plex is the only confirmed early speed. Sovereignty, Sandman, and Baeza all prefer to sit just off the pace, while Hill Road will trail early and hope for help late. The likely scenario has Mo Plex leading into the far turn with Sovereignty poised to pounce. If the favorite doesn’t fire, any of the other three could find themselves in position to capitalize.
Sovereignty is the best horse in the field and should win if he runs his race, but that doesn’t mean he can’t be challenged. Baeza offers upside with a weight break and improved trip, Sandman brings freshness and new equipment, and Mo Plex's lone-speed status makes him a wildcard. The champ is back, but this tune-up may be more revealing than the toteboard suggests.
We’ll take Sovereignty on top of Baeza and Mo Plex in the exacta and reverse it for one third of the amount.
Just in case.