Fantasy Baseball Sleepers-Picks

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

FF- Yea nice scheduling of our draft too, slappy. One of the most glorious days in all the sports year, opening day of the NCAA tournament, and you have me glued to my computer for 2 hours for out fantasy baseball draft.

Stellar job on your end :thumbs:

Laptop in front of the TV? :dunno:

I like the time....with the holiday on Friday, I'm grabbing some beers, turning on the hoops, and picking a stellar fantasy team... :thumbs:

[FlyersFan]

FF- Yea nice scheduling of our draft too, slappy. One of the most glorious days in all the sports year, opening day of the NCAA tournament, and you have me glued to my computer for 2 hours for out fantasy baseball draft.

Stellar job on your end :thumbs:

really didn't have a choice. thought Thursday was better than Friday or Saturday. Sunday is Easter so that was out. And then there weren't a lot of options at all the next week. I looked again and it is AM draft times only.

[CuseFan10]

lmao....great post FF :beerbang:

And I can't wait until you pick him up tomorrow, once again for this year's team!

FF- Yea nice scheduling of our draft too, slappy. One of the most glorious days in all the sports year, opening day of the NCAA tournament, and you have me glued to my computer for 2 hours for out fantasy baseball draft.

Stellar job on your end :thumbs:

[CuseFan10]

CBS Sportsline has up rc/27 projections for this year's players!!!!!!!! :smclap:

[FlyersFan]

And I can't wait until you pick him up tomorrow, once again for this year's team!

:beerbang: ....3 years in a row....and i will be cursing him all year as usual....:beerbang:....

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

lmao....great post FF :beerbang:

And I can't wait until you pick him up tomorrow, once again for this year's team!

[FlyersFan]

Kinda like the argument, "I'm a fan of the team so I obviously know more about the player than you!"?

i think that was hardly my agrument......

stat geeks kill me. you guys love to analyze somebody's R11J1220 Melligman Report statistics. Ummm...Adam Dunn has a 2400.02 R11J200 and also has a 133 K122RCJW. That makes him the man.....:laughing:.......but in reality the guy went over a full season with no sac flys, has one of the worst BA's with RISP ofthe REDS key palyers especially with runners in key situations and hits garbage shot after garbage shot. REDS were in first place 2 years ago going into a west coast road trip on AUG 1st and he proceeded to bat .188 in August and .157 in September with couple of nice garbage shots over the last month. He came up time after time in big games and didn't produce during those 2 months. Same thing happened throughout most of last year, especially when they were fading in July. He is not a pressure player.

And yes Nitts, i usually listen to the Reds games in my office as i am wrapping stuff up. so i do follow the guy's every AB and situational statistics, not to mention i have had him on my fantasy team the last 2 years and cringe when he leaves guys on base all the time.

RISP:

2002 .208
2003 .170
2004 .239
2005 .231
2006 .221
2007 .241

that is for the guy that you pay to drive in runs. that's what he is paid to do, drive in runs when it counts. not hit a solo shot off some career 7.89 ERA mop up guy who won't be in the leauge 3 weeks from now when the Reds are trailing 12-1 in the 9th innning. That has been the knock on him for his entire career in Cincy and probably draws the ire of about 5 post game callers about every night during the season. I mean, i guess we are all ignorant baseball people.

Really, the only time that the REDS have been in a pennant race was when they had the lead on August 1st in 2006, and then last July when they were trying to get back into things. Check out his average and production for those 2 periods. He came on great towards the end of last year......Reds were out of it by then unfortunately.


But heck, his R2D2 is good so he must be the man. but what do i know...:dunno:........just a dumb Reds fan who quit playing baseball after HS who made the dumbest comment ever on predictem.


This is honestly the reason i usually never even enter into baseball discussions. More so than any other sport, stat geeks dominate the discussion landscape. People want to ignore what they see and read a bunch of statistics off a page. This from a sport where if you give up 2 singles, get 2 outs, then a guy (or even funnier when it's the pitcher himself) makes an error and you proceed to give up 9 straight hits after that.....you're ERA for the inning is 0....:thumbs:.....stats lie. You end up having discussions based on mathematical forumlas that some dungeons and dragons guy created rather than what goes on and what you see. I mean you don't hear comparisons for Kobe and Lebron saying "well his BartMasterman Index is 221.07 and Kobe's is only 219.08 not to mention his lieberman conditional number is 8.2 while Kobe's is 7.2 so he has to be better".

Im done.....whatever, Adam Dunn is the man. Im stupid.

GL! to everyone in their fantasy stuff this year.

[NittanyLions94]

Yea but his rc/27 is better than Manny's!! I can't believe that argument was even made still, haha...

Kinda like the argument, "I'm a fan of the team so I obviously know more about the player than you!"?

[CuseFan10]

Nitts- please don't tell me about Adam Dunn and what he does or doesn't do. I am a life long die hard REDS fan. He is one of the worst clutch hitters of all time. He went over FIVE HUNDERED A/B's 2 years ago without a SacFly. That is almost impossible. He hits 80% of his HR's in garbage time. He had one of the worst BA's on the REDS with RISP last year and every freeking year.

Yea but his rc/27 is better than Manny's!! I can't believe that argument was even made still, haha... Adam Dunn can't shine Manny Ramirez's cleats, nevermind trying to tell me that in any way, he's a better baseball player.

(Same applies Grady Sizemore and every guy on that list - a few of whom were injured last year I might add).

[FlyersFan]

Nitts- please don't tell me about Adam Dunn and what he does or doesn't do. I am a life long die hard REDS fan. He is one of the worst clutch hitters of all time. He went over FIVE HUNDERED A/B's 2 years ago without a SacFly. That is almost impossible. He hits 80% of his HR's in garbage time. He had one of the worst BA's on the REDS with RISP last year and every freeking year. Even the REDS announcers will acknowledge that. They tried to trade him at the deadline and couldn't get much of anything for him. Marty Brennamen who i am sure you've heard of said during a REDS broadcast last summer pretty much the same thing. Every one who knows a thing about the REDS knows that and that is why the guy takes so much heat in Cincy. He just rarely delivers when you need him to. 2 years ago when the REDS folded post August 1st....he batted fking .130.....he had like 5 homers in the last 2 months and they were all garbage shots. Solo shot in the 9th vs. the Pirates to make it 7-1.....3 run blast vs. the Astros to make it like 13-2 REDS.......and yes, he is horrible in the field. They tried him at 1B and he couldn't field that position either. He is a great fantasy player and a freeking sore spot in real baseball for a lot of REDS fans.

[CuseFan10]

I played baseball through college and then had to stop due to a knee injury.

Ha, small world, me too. Never recovered from a torn meniscus, dislocated kneecap and other problems from an outfield collision in an intrasquad game. Stupid RF'er shoulda never even been on the team. Ha.

[NittanyLions94]

You're missing my point still I think. rc/27 doesn't take into account good baseball plays such as giving yourself up to move a runner, or playing good defense, or things as such. It's a formula made up by Bill James (so yes, you are a MoneyBall guy).

For those that don't know rc/27 (simply, haha) is:

RC/27:

A stat created by Bill James to measure how many runs a lineup of 9
of the same individual would score in a game.

A = H + BB + HB - CS - GDP
B = TB + .52 * (SB + SH + SF) + .26 * (BB + HB - IBB)
C = AB + BB + HB + SH + SF

RC = A * B / C
O = AB - H + CS + GDP + SH + SF
RC/27 = RC / O * 27

Very practical, eh? It's right up there with the QB Rating.

Anyway, you keep saying it's old school vs new school, and it's simply not. I'm not sure as to your baseball playing background, but there's more to being a good baseball player than stats and formulas is my point. I'm not saying what you are providing (via Bill James) isn't useful, but it's not the end all be all of a baseball player. Wins are a useless statistic I agree. RBI's and batting average are not though.

Again, ask the Reds why they haven't extended Adan Dunn's contracted yet and why he won't be playing there next season most likely?


PS What's Dunn's park adjusted rc/27 if you want to get critical? He plays one the 5 most hitter friendly park's in the entire major leagues too let's not forget.

:thumbs:

His park adjusted OPS+ was 136 last year. And Adam Dunn is not one of the players I'd be hoping will "move the runner" when he goes up to bat.

I'm not sure as to your baseball playing background

I played baseball through college and then had to stop due to a knee injury.

[CuseFan10]

Adam Dunn had a higher rc/27 than the following awesome players that strike out less:

Manny Ramirez
Grady Sizemore
Carlos Beltran
Justin Morneau
Derek Lee
Victor Martinez

And I think those are all very good players, Manny being one of the best in the bigs.

RBI's tell you something about getting someone out? RBIs are a pretty arbitrary stat that is extremely dependent on the players around you. It is hard to gauge much from a player's RBI stats IMO. Unless ESPN has you feeling all warm and fuzzy with their "clutch" stats.

It is an old school vs. new school perspective. There are people that still cling to RBIs, batting average, and wins for pitchers are substantial statistical categories when there are dozens of better ways to evaluate a player.

You're missing my point still I think. rc/27 doesn't take into account good baseball plays such as giving yourself up to move a runner, or playing good defense, or things as such. It's a formula made up by Bill James (so yes, you are a MoneyBall guy).

For those that don't know rc/27 (simply, haha) is:

RC/27:

A stat created by Bill James to measure how many runs a lineup of 9
of the same individual would score in a game.

A = H + BB + HB - CS - GDP
B = TB + .52 * (SB + SH + SF) + .26 * (BB + HB - IBB)
C = AB + BB + HB + SH + SF

RC = A * B / C
O = AB - H + CS + GDP + SH + SF
RC/27 = RC / O * 27

Very practical, eh? It's right up there with the QB Rating.

Anyway, you keep saying it's old school vs new school, and it's simply not. I'm not sure as to your baseball playing background, but there's more to being a good baseball player than stats and formulas is my point. I'm not saying what you are providing (via Bill James) isn't useful, but it's not the end all be all of a baseball player. Wins are a useless statistic I agree. RBI's and batting average are not though.

Again, ask the Reds why they haven't extended Adan Dunn's contracted yet and why he won't be playing there next season most likely?


PS What's Dunn's park adjusted rc/27 if you want to get critical? He plays one the 5 most hitter friendly park's in the entire major leagues too let's not forget.

:thumbs:

[NittanyLions94]

Adam Dunn had a higher rc/27 than the following awesome players that strike out less:

Manny Ramirez
Grady Sizemore
Carlos Beltran
Justin Morneau
Derek Lee
Victor Martinez

And I think those are all very good players, Manny being one of the best in the bigs.

RBI's tell you something about getting someone out? RBIs are a pretty arbitrary stat that is extremely dependent on the players around you. It is hard to gauge much from a player's RBI stats IMO. Unless ESPN has you feeling all warm and fuzzy with their "clutch" stats.

It is an old school vs. new school perspective. There are people that still cling to RBIs, batting average, and wins for pitchers are substantial statistical categories when there are dozens of better ways to evaluate a player.

[CuseFan10]

Where's Stiffler when I need him? He LOOOOOVES Adam Dunn.... :laughing: