Stats for Handicapping MLB

[Meestermike]

After almost 3 months, here are some results of One-Run vs. Multiple_Run Win %'s. Some interesting results.

SEE THE RESULTS HERE

Updated to July 22nd

[Meestermike]

I have posted a MLB Stats Excel Sheet from my stats library...

SEE IT HERE

[Horfin]

I'm a little late to the party:

But here is an easy way: early line movement

Check lines around midnight and play solely on line movement (I have a whole chart depicting which plays have a 9% or greater ROI and I only play on those) and I play on those games.

So far this season: 183-174 +$1,659.36 (excluding yesterday). The numbers would be better but in the beginning I screwed it up.


Horfy

[Meestermike]

After almost 3 months, here are some results of One-Run vs. Multiple_Run Win %'s. Some interesting results.

SEE THE RESULTS HERE

[yomonte]

S&B, I got behind in my keeping score on 10 and over. I will get the #'s for 12 and higher. As it stands right now, AL and NL teams that score 11 runs and win are 2-13 the next day. AL and NL teams on the road that score 10 runs and win are 0-7 the next day. I'll break down 12 and higher to see if there is something going on.

[Silver & Black]

thru 05/23/07
NL teams 12-27 (30%) after scoring 10 or more the prior day!!
:dunno:

[homedawg]

what time counts as the first night game?

usually 7:05 et... I am only tracking the first dog of +150 or more on the board. Most of the streak has been a day game dogs +150 or more... last night (4/20) the 1st big dog on the board (+150 or more) washington nationals. (w6-5)

4/21 there are only 2 dogs +150 or more on the entire board (nyy +155) & was +160... was(7:05et) is higher on the board but nyy starts earlier (3:55et)...

[Q-Unit]

"Top Of The Board" Games (1st day games or 1st night games with dogs +150 or more)

BIG Dogs Been Cashin'

4/19 bos +180 (W) 5-3
4/18 kcr +180 (W) 4-3
4/17 Pit +161 (W) 6-1
4/16 was +183 (W) 5-1
4/15 cin +151 (W) 1-0
4/14 det +161 (W) 10-7
4/14 was +230 (W) 6-2
4/13 cin +152 (W) 6-5




:celebrate:

what time counts as the first night game?

[homedawg]

"Top Of The Board" Games (1st day games or 1st night games with dogs +150 or more)

BIG Dogs Been Cashin'

4/20 was +163 (W) 6-5
4/19 bos +180 (W) 5-3
4/18 kcr +180 (W) 4-3
4/17 Pit +161 (W) 6-1
4/16 was +183 (W) 5-1
4/15 cin +151 (W) 1-0
4/14 det +161 (W) 10-7
4/14 was +230 (W) 6-2
4/13 cin +152 (W) 6-5
4/12 was +270 (W) 2-0
4/11 sea +165 (W) 3-0



:celebrate:

[yomonte]

1-Run Game Plays: Going against the winner OR loser of a 1-run game when they play their next game on the road against a different opponent.

Will have to dig for the exact #'s on this one but it has run over 65% during past seasons.

This year how you would fare going against 1 run games playing on the road against a different opponent

NL - 0-3
AL - 3-0

with a day off

NL - 1-2
AL - 1-1

1 run games no matter whether on the road next game or at home going against.

NL - 0-6
AL - 5-3

day off

NL - 7-2
AL - 1-1

Two days off

NL - 1-0
AL - 0-1

Cleveland with 4 days off won and you would be 0-1 going against

[AddictedToBetting]

[QUOTE=Bobo66;28602]

1. Each day, check the American and National league schedules and eliminate games in which the moneyline odds on the underdogs are greater than +150.
QUOTE]

#######11111111111111

Baseball is a game a feel, even though the game is justified on stats. If you know the game then you have a head start. This honestly is the only sport that I feel that I have an edge. Knowing your pitchers.......knowing who is resting........and knowing what the team is coming off, being tough series, losing streak, winning streak, division foes, down time, switch in rotation, team vs. lefties/righties. Baseball in my opinion is best capped early in the season........and late.

I am the same way with NBA. I live and breathe in pro basketball...:beerbang:

[Bobo66]

[QUOTE=Meestermike;26555]1. Each day, check the American and National league schedules and eliminate games in which the moneyline odds on the underdogs are greater than +150.
QUOTE]

#######11111111111111

Baseball is a game a feel, even though the game is justified on stats. If you know the game then you have a head start. This honestly is the only sport that I feel that I have an edge. Knowing your pitchers.......knowing who is resting........and knowing what the team is coming off, being tough series, losing streak, winning streak, division foes, down time, switch in rotation, team vs. lefties/righties. Baseball in my opinion is best capped early in the season........and late.

[Meestermike]

whats k.i.s.s. stand for?

thats very interesting, how have you fared in the past doing this mike?

thanks!

K.I.S.S. = KEEP IT SIMPLE STUPID. Something I keep trying to tell myself all the time. I luv crunching numbers and sometimes complicate things by trying too many variables.

As for its success, around 56% to 59%.

The other basis formula I use a great deal after the 1st 2 weeks is the one I mentioned earlier FA Ratio and FA Median1+.

[Q-Unit]

1. Each day, check the American and National league schedules and eliminate games in which the moneyline odds on the underdogs are greater than +150.

2. Then eliminate games that remain in which the underdogs have lost 3 or more games in a row or the favorites have won 3 or more games in a row.

3. Then eliminate games that remain in which the favorite team's pitcher is among the top 20 of the AL or NL in ERA (see usa today/sagarin for stats).

4. You should have 3 to 9 games to wager. Make wagers on the underdogs using different books for the best moneyline odds.

This system is based on a law of averages that underdogs win 4 out of 9 games but by using the above criteria your odds are improved even more.

BANKROLL: Determine your bankroll for this system and bet 2.5 percent of bankroll for each play.

Start date: The system starts on May 1 ... giving time to set up stats for this season.

whats k.i.s.s. stand for?

thats very interesting, how have you fared in the past doing this mike?

thanks!

[Meestermike]

An Awesome K.I.S.S. SYSTEM

1. Each day, check the American and National league schedules and eliminate games in which the moneyline odds on the underdogs are greater than +150.

2. Then eliminate games that remain in which the underdogs have lost 3 or more games in a row or the favorites have won 3 or more games in a row.

3. Then eliminate games that remain in which the favorite team's pitcher is among the top 20 of the AL or NL in ERA (see usa today/sagarin for stats).

4. You should have 3 to 9 games to wager. Make wagers on the underdogs using different books for the best moneyline odds.

This system is based on a law of averages that underdogs win 4 out of 9 games but by using the above criteria your odds are improved even more.

BANKROLL: Determine your bankroll for this system and bet 2.5 percent of bankroll for each play.

Start date: The system starts on May 1 ... giving time to set up stats for this season.