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Recap: 1-0
Record: 13-8
Review: For my previous pick I laid -5 with the Clippers.
They won by 34.
NEXT!
At just a quick glance I'd take Ind plus the points today.
But . . .
WF2 says Milwaukee is the Wrong Fav, Ind should be the one laying points.
WF2 Rd teams in the postseason have a record of 1-3.
Strictly Fade material.
And . . .
WF1 says Milwaukee is the correct Fav and the differential between the numbers on the two models qualifies this for an asterisk spot.
Regular season * spots were 7-11, a decent Fade but just 5-5 on Rd teams. Postseason Rd record is 0-1.
Like I said, I like the Pacers today, but I can't ignore the play that's been a solid money maker for me in every sport.
My play:
Mil (I'm waiting to buy this one. It's at -5 right now. I'm trying to figure out if the public's going to expect the Bucks to even out the series and put their money on Milwaukee or grab the points with Indiana.)
Update:
I posted this, then went to check lines again.
I see that the public likes Indiana, too.
The lines down to -4' now.
Not buying it was a good move. With 11 hours left before tip-off I may as well wait a little longer to see if I can shake that hook off.
Update #2:
One of my models for picking totals (called "T2" because I have to call it something when charting and referring to it) says take the Lakers and Wolves game Over.
Postseason record for this play is 7-12, a 63% Fade.
And . . .
When my other model, T1, disagrees and says the game will go Under, the postseason record for T2's pick is 2-3.
Two systems say take this one Under and that's what I'm going to do.
Bought it now because the opening 209 is starting to drop.
Update #3: Milwaukee down to -3' now so by reading the line correctly I picked up a point and a half.
I'll monitor for a little while longer, plenty of time till tip off.
Update #4: Bought the -3'.
My plays:
LAL/Min Un 208'
Mil -3'
Record: 13-8
Review: For my previous pick I laid -5 with the Clippers.
They won by 34.
NEXT!
At just a quick glance I'd take Ind plus the points today.
But . . .
WF2 says Milwaukee is the Wrong Fav, Ind should be the one laying points.
WF2 Rd teams in the postseason have a record of 1-3.
Strictly Fade material.
And . . .
WF1 says Milwaukee is the correct Fav and the differential between the numbers on the two models qualifies this for an asterisk spot.
Regular season * spots were 7-11, a decent Fade but just 5-5 on Rd teams. Postseason Rd record is 0-1.
Like I said, I like the Pacers today, but I can't ignore the play that's been a solid money maker for me in every sport.
My play:
Mil (I'm waiting to buy this one. It's at -5 right now. I'm trying to figure out if the public's going to expect the Bucks to even out the series and put their money on Milwaukee or grab the points with Indiana.)
Update:
I posted this, then went to check lines again.
I see that the public likes Indiana, too.
The lines down to -4' now.
Not buying it was a good move. With 11 hours left before tip-off I may as well wait a little longer to see if I can shake that hook off.
Update #2:
One of my models for picking totals (called "T2" because I have to call it something when charting and referring to it) says take the Lakers and Wolves game Over.
Postseason record for this play is 7-12, a 63% Fade.
And . . .
When my other model, T1, disagrees and says the game will go Under, the postseason record for T2's pick is 2-3.
Two systems say take this one Under and that's what I'm going to do.
Bought it now because the opening 209 is starting to drop.
Update #3: Milwaukee down to -3' now so by reading the line correctly I picked up a point and a half.
I'll monitor for a little while longer, plenty of time till tip off.
Update #4: Bought the -3'.
My plays:
LAL/Min Un 208'
Mil -3'