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Record: 1-1
I'll have at least one pick today but before I get to that I want to share some numbers on a situational spot that I tracked last season.
WNBA teams don't play a lot of back-to-back games but when they do the record for the Over in the second game in 2024 was 17-6.
That's a 74% situational spot to play ON.
(That record may differ from others you might see, it's all dependent upon what line was used - the opener or the closing number.)
It's important to remember - In handicapping, what worked one season may not work the next season. But you sure as hell want to be aware of it when you doing your handicapping in the current year.
As with all my methods I also tracked a few subsystems, plays within the play, see if I can improve on the win percentage and uncover a stronger situation spot to play on.
Here are some more numbers to consider if your handicapped in the WNBA this year:
Sequence
Obviously, teams play differently at home than on the road.
Where they're playing affects their PPG on offense and defense.
And some teams don't travel well.
This subset breaks the numbers down to factor in the sequence of where the games were played, a home game preceded by a home game night before, a Road game after playing at home the night before, etc. Here's the breakdown:
Hm/Hm 4-1
Hm/Rd 5-2
Rd/Rd 4-3
Rd/Hm 4-0
All have winning records but teams playing back-to-back Road games are only one game away from not being profitable. Just something to keep in mind this season.
Day of the Week
Most days have the same feel to them, but not all.
Friday nights may benefit from higher energy crowd.
NOBODY likes to go to work on Monday and some sports teams are no different.
And when you play most of you games evenings during the week Saturday and Sunday morning games have a different feel to them, different atmosphere and different outcomes for teams.
I track those four days and here's what I have:
Friday 4-0
Saturday 2-1
Sunday 8-3
Monday 0-1
Factor in days of the week or not, it's up to the individual.
But for me, I like to have all the information I can at hand when I'm deciding whether to buy a game or not.
Sharing this information because today we have the first game that qualifies for this situational spot:
Con at Atl
The Dream played last night. At home vs Dallas.
They're home today which puts them in the H-H sequence.
Last night's game stayed Under by 11 points.
(Somewhere in my notes I have the record for game two of B2B's broken down into whether game one was an Under or Over, but I have to hunt through my notes to find it. Top of my head I think the stronger play is when game one was an Over. I'll drop by with the record after I dig it up.)
Atlanta was 0-0 in this spot last season (yes, in addition to the league based records I also track the records based on how individual teams perform when they're in this spot. ALWAYS looking for an edge anywhere I can find it.)
Today's game opened 159 and is down to 157'.
There's extra juice on the Over and I'm not expecting the number to get any better so if anyone likes the Over they should grab it now.
The game doesn't fit any of the three different models I use for handicapping totals so I'm strictly playing this one based on last year's performance. Yes, as I said what worked one season may not work the next but this one was good to me last year so I'll take a chance and ride at the first time it's in play this season.
The Sun are offensively challenged, third worse offense in the league.
Fortunately they suck on defense too, they're also the third worst defense in the league.
I'm going to need Atlanta to surpass their team total and get most of the scoring done for me today.
Also . . .
WF1 says Phoenix and LV are Wrong Favs today.
WF1 is 5-6 on the season, 3-2 at home, 1-4 on the Rd.
Seattle's at home, Washington's on the road.
I'll ride the stronger number and Fade the Mystics.
The lines opened -7, now down to -4 (too much respect for Washington, I think.)
WF2 also says LV is the wrong favorite. When I have a match between both systems, home teams are 1-0, not enough data for me to make that play.
My buys:
Con/Atl Ov 157'
Phx - (I'm waiting to buy this one, the numbers dropping.)
Update: Mercury money coming in, no more -4' available, bought -5.
I'll have at least one pick today but before I get to that I want to share some numbers on a situational spot that I tracked last season.
WNBA teams don't play a lot of back-to-back games but when they do the record for the Over in the second game in 2024 was 17-6.
That's a 74% situational spot to play ON.
(That record may differ from others you might see, it's all dependent upon what line was used - the opener or the closing number.)
It's important to remember - In handicapping, what worked one season may not work the next season. But you sure as hell want to be aware of it when you doing your handicapping in the current year.
As with all my methods I also tracked a few subsystems, plays within the play, see if I can improve on the win percentage and uncover a stronger situation spot to play on.
Here are some more numbers to consider if your handicapped in the WNBA this year:
Sequence
Obviously, teams play differently at home than on the road.
Where they're playing affects their PPG on offense and defense.
And some teams don't travel well.
This subset breaks the numbers down to factor in the sequence of where the games were played, a home game preceded by a home game night before, a Road game after playing at home the night before, etc. Here's the breakdown:
Hm/Hm 4-1
Hm/Rd 5-2
Rd/Rd 4-3
Rd/Hm 4-0
All have winning records but teams playing back-to-back Road games are only one game away from not being profitable. Just something to keep in mind this season.
Day of the Week
Most days have the same feel to them, but not all.
Friday nights may benefit from higher energy crowd.
NOBODY likes to go to work on Monday and some sports teams are no different.
And when you play most of you games evenings during the week Saturday and Sunday morning games have a different feel to them, different atmosphere and different outcomes for teams.
I track those four days and here's what I have:
Friday 4-0
Saturday 2-1
Sunday 8-3
Monday 0-1
Factor in days of the week or not, it's up to the individual.
But for me, I like to have all the information I can at hand when I'm deciding whether to buy a game or not.
Sharing this information because today we have the first game that qualifies for this situational spot:
Con at Atl
The Dream played last night. At home vs Dallas.
They're home today which puts them in the H-H sequence.
Last night's game stayed Under by 11 points.
(Somewhere in my notes I have the record for game two of B2B's broken down into whether game one was an Under or Over, but I have to hunt through my notes to find it. Top of my head I think the stronger play is when game one was an Over. I'll drop by with the record after I dig it up.)
Atlanta was 0-0 in this spot last season (yes, in addition to the league based records I also track the records based on how individual teams perform when they're in this spot. ALWAYS looking for an edge anywhere I can find it.)
Today's game opened 159 and is down to 157'.
There's extra juice on the Over and I'm not expecting the number to get any better so if anyone likes the Over they should grab it now.
The game doesn't fit any of the three different models I use for handicapping totals so I'm strictly playing this one based on last year's performance. Yes, as I said what worked one season may not work the next but this one was good to me last year so I'll take a chance and ride at the first time it's in play this season.
The Sun are offensively challenged, third worse offense in the league.
Fortunately they suck on defense too, they're also the third worst defense in the league.
I'm going to need Atlanta to surpass their team total and get most of the scoring done for me today.
Also . . .
WF1 says Phoenix and LV are Wrong Favs today.
WF1 is 5-6 on the season, 3-2 at home, 1-4 on the Rd.
Seattle's at home, Washington's on the road.
I'll ride the stronger number and Fade the Mystics.
The lines opened -7, now down to -4 (too much respect for Washington, I think.)
WF2 also says LV is the wrong favorite. When I have a match between both systems, home teams are 1-0, not enough data for me to make that play.
My buys:
Con/Atl Ov 157'
Phx - (I'm waiting to buy this one, the numbers dropping.)
Update: Mercury money coming in, no more -4' available, bought -5.