Week 14 Discussion

[Reggie Hamlin]

One play the public IMO has correct is Baltimore .
At home Sunday night they are 9-3 ATS Ray will have the dogs barking and Portis
a very tough back is hurt Neck Ribs Knee Baltimore is banged up in the secondary
but Jason Cambell doesn't scare me Lay the 5.5 points IMO

:beer2:

[JoeyBallgame]

Weird week

Going into this week I decided to look at the lines with the following assumptions...

1. This is the beginning of the time in the NFL when the teams can be divided into the halves, and the have nots, those teams that are still in the hunt and motivated, and those that are not, and...

2. Weather is now a prime factor in the games, and the totals...so always look at the weather before playing any angle of any game...

In looking at the public money this week, there are some shady and odd things going on...

-10 teams are being backed by over 68 percent of the public this week as of 9pm Fri Night-

-In those 10 games, the line has responded in 1 of them...the NE game, and gone in the opposite direction in the Giants game (Giants being bet at 68 percent, line has fallen to -7 from -9 or -9.5)

In the other 8, the books seem content to take the non-heavy side...

-These heavy public plays are Indy -14 (74%), Bears -6.5(82%), Packers -6(74%), Titans -14(81%), Detroit +9.5(82%), Baltimore -5, (75%), Jets -3.5(87%), Arizona -14(76%), New England -4.5(93%)-

-Of these games the public is with the favorite in 9 of 10, except the DET game however...

I haven't seen the Detroit line on my book since the Williams brothers news came out (and the info may be wrong on it, or have a small sample size), and the NE line has been pulled as well...

I'll be waiting till Sunday morning and looking for any weird weather, and taking dogs in any game I feel does not fit the have vs the have-not games, if these percentages hold up...I mean, the public can win sometimes, but I don't like seeing all these lines holding steady...

Just my two cents, GL ALL!!! :beerbang:

[Daws1089]

Could the books be begging for any more money on NE by hanging that -4.5 out there? Jeez. Line is not moving at all. I suspect it will be raining in seattle as thats what it usually does there. I just can't back NE in that one.

[Daws1089]

not much discussion this week.....


I think pittsburgh beats dallas. Dallas might seem like they are rolling now but who are the beating? the 9ers, seahawks and now everything is fine? Their offensive line will struggle with pitts 3-4. Even if romo is mobile I don't think he gets out of this game with less than 2 sacks and 1 int. Pitt has the outdoor advtantage too I will probably be laying the 3 there. Lean to the under too.


Its interesting to see the public backing the packers but the line keeps shrinking. We're down to -6 from -7. Usually off of a mnf win that team is a decent fade and especially since houston is coming to wintery lambeau, but sharps are on houston i guess?

[FlyersFan]

I wanna know why JML drafted Carson Palmer AND Chad Johnson early in the draft...LMAO...

:laughing: :laughing:

dude- at least you didn't go to the waiver wire for fitzpatrick.......:puke:

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

i just want to know how Udog cheaped out a bye in the first round of the playoffs with the 5th most points in the league......:ohman:......

I wanna know why JML drafted Carson Palmer AND Chad Johnson early in the draft...LMAO...

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Well,

Charles Grant, Deuce McCallister, and Will Smith of the saints all suspended for the last 4 games as well as pat and kevin williams of the vikings. Huge blow to that defense of minnesota.

Man, I'd love it if the Williams' being out affected the line down to a TD or so. I'd still play the Vikings, as they are going to run all over Detroit. The early line (no suspensions) was -9.5 I believe.

[Underdog88]

i just want to know how Udog cheaped out a bye in the first round of the playoffs with the 5th most points in the league......:ohman:......

Just win baby :beerbang:

[Furashu]

DAL vs PITTS 40.5 U/O
i like the over on that game. DAL should score at least 21 and pitts 21...
tie game :)

but yeah i like the over. Pitts should have no problem running it and passing it. Hawks drove down what 5 times but had those dumb turnovers/fgs.

i wonder why the DEN line is so High 49 pts? KC barely scores 13 pts a game.

[FlyersFan]

i just want to know how Udog cheaped out a bye in the first round of the playoffs with the 5th most points in the league......:ohman:......

[Daws1089]

Well,

Charles Grant, Deuce McCallister, and Will Smith of the saints all suspended for the last 4 games as well as pat and kevin williams of the vikings. Huge blow to that defense of minnesota.

[Daws1089]

I think the over in the Houston/GB game is one to consider at 48.5. Neither team can stop the run, but both can run it. Unless there is snow in lambeau I think this one can get to 31-24 no problem. GB hasn't stopped anybody at all lately. Brees and co. get 51 on mnf and then the hapless Jake even succeeds on them and D williams runs everywhere. Gotta go over or nothing.

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Titans -13.5 looks good to me, maybe Cleveland team under. Was on the Browns last week vs Indy, largely because the Colts can't stop the run. Now the Browns have no qb & are on the road vs a solid D. Shouldn't be close....

I agree...at first glance I was thinking cover ....but how does Cleveland compete with nothing to play for...no QB, no TE, on the road.....could get ugly...

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

I think I'm done trying to figure out this team lol. I get the feeling that if I try fading them, they'll show up...

Yeah...I agree, that Thursday game is a noplay...and just a small total play for me.....what a stinker of a matchup!! :bang:

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Agree with the Pats. They are going to throttle Seattle, IMO...who could be the 2nd worst team in football. The Steelers and Seahawks defences aren't exactly similar. Everyone was back in love with NE, and Cassell before they met Pittsburgh, and now they only lay 4.5 against a horrible Seattle team? The Steelers make alot of QBs/offences look bad....they will bounce back IMO.

Also think the Cowboys are back to being a little over-rated after two wins over the NFC West. To be able to get that Steelers defence at home only laying 2.5 seems good to me. Dallas defence still not great, IMO (except for Ware), and I wouldn't wanna back Romo in a hostile wintery December Heinz field being pressured by the Pitt defence all day. Playing a good team on the road for the first time in a while, I think Dallas gets exposed.

I also like NYG once again this week...laying a home TD. Going to keep riding that moneytrain. Public loved the +9 points right away, and have hammered the number down already (I can get NYG -7 -114 right now). I can't believe the public is fading the Giants at home to the tune of 63%. With the way Philly played last week, there seems to be an Eagles/McNabb love-in again. BUT...that was a great spot with over-rated Zona travelling East on a short week. I was on the Eagles too, because of the spot. But remember, before that game, Philly was stinking it up large, and now they play on the road against the leagues best in a divisional, rivalry game. They get smoked, IMO.

Also looking at backing Miami in Toronto against the reeling Bills. I expect the fans to be split in this one, so it's no real home field advantage. There is also no weather advantage like most years, with Miami coming North in December, with the domed stadium in TO. Buffalo's QB situation is a mess (Edwards hasn't been the same since his concussion), and the Bills simply aren't the better team here, and really should be dogged in this neutral site IMO.

Might take a look at playing a Cards 1st half play. IMO, they come out gunning at home against the Rams secondary after the embarassing loss last week, and get ahead early. Don't trust their defence/secondary to hold off a backdoor cover, so I think a first half play might be the best option there.