WEEK 7 DISCUSSION

[Underdog88]

Could be Lynch's breakout game for the season. Then again it could be either of Car's rbs. I may have to play the Bills ml small

[Reggie Hamlin]

Daws I couldn't agree with you more . Remember the bills got six turnovers from
Sanchize last week and still only scored 16 points in an overtime game. On the road
against the Panthers with the rushing game they have if they don't give the game
away the Panthers should cover. I'll take the home team -7 and the lesser of two evils . :thumbs:

[Daws1089]

How can anyone back the bills here? They gave up 210 rushing yards to thomas jones alone last week and now they have to go against Williams and Stewart with another good offensive line. I can't see BUFF being able to stop the run whatsoever and to me that will lose them the game.

[daft_picks]

I've found a 4-play 13-pt. teaser that I like:

NYJ +6 vs. OAK
NYJ vs. OAK OVER 22

- I don't see how there's not 22 points scored in this game and I don't see Oakland winning, nevermind winning by more than 6.

Just FYI the score of last week's raiders game was 13-9 exactly :laughing: Gotta think the Jets get at least one TD this time lol cause they'll actually be calling running plays unlike the Eagles last week. :puke:

I do want to say the Oak/NYJ UNDER 35 is one of my favorite plays of the week. The raiders previeous point totals were 7, 6, 3, 10. All of these games went under 35 points except for one when the Giants opened up and scored 44 at will. Lowest total of the week = my favorite.

And about the Bills, I was just thinking about them cause the line got delayed so long. I think Carolina laying 7 points is completely insane, the Bills are a mess themselves but they keep it close when matched more equally. Win by 13 over Tampa, loss by 3 to Cleveland, win by 3 Jets, loss by 1 NE. They got blown out 20+ to Miami and New Orleans because they are way better teams.

CAROLINA IS NOT A GOOD TEAM!! 27th against the rush, 27th most points allowed. THE BILLS ARE ALSO NOT A GOOD TEAM. 32nd against the run, 20th most points allowed. Both have "good" pass defenses because all teams do is run on each other. Delhomme is good for 1 turnover MINIMUM. Buffallo D is getting better slowly, they crumpled Sanchez into nothingness last week. FAR from elite but I don't see how Carolina doesn't turn the ball over at least once (which is probably way lowballing it). But wait here's the best part, the two carolina wins. 3 points over washington :laughing: and 7 over Tampa

So the bills have beaten one good team and Tampa by 13 and the Panthers have beaten the pathetic redskins who are just giving wins away and 7 over tampa.

I know this is long winded but HOW IN THE **** IS CAROLINA LAYING 7 POINTS IN THIS GAME?! This may be a no play for some, sure there are arguments for the Panthers, but I don't see any side but Buffallo being the right one. Maybe vegas upped the line because Fitzpatrick is playing? Could this not be a better thing for the Bills? Now they will run run run run even more and NOT make they're QB win the game. Hell fitzy may even toss a deep ball or two to TO, wouldn't that be novel? Too amazing WR's on this team in Smith***and Owens who are having godawful seasons cause they're QB's cant get them the ball.

Bills +7, I could seriously see them winning this game.

***fantasy football question if anyone is interested. I have the godawful steve smith in a PPR league. Who would you play Smith, Johny Knox of the Bears, or Berrian? I'm getting sick of him, does he bust out finally or do I go with one of these guys who put up decent but not monster numbers. Thanks for any opinions. I hope you're not bored to death reading while I am DEFINITELY making a play on Buffallo this weekend. I hate backing ****ty teams but when 2 play together that's your only option. :bang:

[Details-Details]

Hello all! Have some time this week so I'll try to get involved a little in the discussion....



A couple random thoughts.


GB shouldn't be a big road fave, I don't trust them by any means. Same goes for SD, a road chalk play on them makes zero sense. The Chargers are a slightly above average team. 0-2 ats in the division, plus both wins vs KC last year were by one point. -4.5 on the road begging for Chargers money, but who in their right mind wants to back the Chiefs? Bowe seems to be emerging as the season progresses, he could have a good day. I think for the Ciefs to win/cover, LJ will need to have a decent day. Chargers should be able to throw on KC, over 44 looks like a possibility.

Even LJ could have a good day against this now weak defense. Losing Jamar Williams in middle of the D Line has killed them...SD kinda makes me think of Tennessee with Haynesworth int his regard...except SD has a decent offense.

Rush Yards vs SD this year

vs. raiders 148 rush allowed
vs. ravens 130 rush allow 31 points
vs dolphins 149 rush all 13 points
vs. steelers 177 rush 38 points
vs. broncos 101 r 34 points ( but 2 TD on kickreturns)

MAYBE EVEN LJ CAN GO FOR 100!!!!

SD should score, even with the 32 ranked rush offense


Dolphins- How in the world can anyone go against the Saints? I pick them to go to the SB then played against them last week, off a bye and playing in a statement game how dumb. I have mixed feelings about this game. I think the Saints D is coming into this playing way over their heads. Nearly every game the Saints played this season they have been able to jump ahead early, force the opposing team to become one dimensional and abandon the rush. The Eagles had to throw out the run, as did NY. Miami will never be in the position where they have to abandon the run because the whole offense is based around it. Sounds crazy to say this of Miami's offense, but I think as far as matchups go this could be the biggest test of the Saints D so far. The Fins are damn good when they get running, and have put together 2 straight weeks of scoring 31+ pts. Now off a bye and with a chance to jockey for position in the AFC East (they are @ NYJ next week too), they won't be short on motivation. I would think they look to play ball control, but I won't be involved in any under plays in a Saints game. Still mulling over how to play this one...

I KNOW!!

its always fun takin an under then one team goes for 47 or something...but i think the Dolphins keep this one under with lots of ball control. run run run. and i think they get a few stops on defense with one of the best run D's in the league. Keep brees off the field...I think the Dolphins win this game in the trenches.


U-Dog what you think of this spot for the Bills? Have they gathered any momentum after a nice OT win vs the Jets? They go to Carolina, and I throw last years home record out the window, this team is in shambles. I'd actually have to think long and hard about who Id rather have at QB -- Delhomme or Ryan Fitzpatrick?? yikes -- Steve Smith is the kinda guy who can tear a team apart. The Bills gettin Posulnyzyzyzn back is huge for them....and the Bills know how soft theyre schedule is til week 14...They could go on a little roll starting here..


Any thoughts on the Bills guys?

[Jcb890]

I've found a 4-play 13-pt. teaser that I like:

NYJ +6 vs. OAK
NYJ vs. OAK OVER 22

- I don't see how there's not 22 points scored in this game and I don't see Oakland winning, nevermind winning by more than 6.

NO +6 vs. MIA
NO vs. MIA OVER 34

- NO is coming off of a big win and has a stellar offense. Can their D stop the Wildcat? I don't know. I think the over of 34 is a pretty solid bet and I think the Saints win this one.

[hodown]

I think both road teams are the better teams here, and after playing the Ravens ML last week I'm done trying to guess when the Vikings lose. I think Dallas doesn't even sniff the playoffs this season, IMO the Falcons win that one....

I agree Atlanta is the better team on a neutral site, not sure in the Pitt/Minny game. Regardless, I don't always think the best team wins in the NFL week in and week out.

[Jcb890]

Thanks for all the input guys. The more I look at it, the less I like the 4-team teasers. However, I do like a 2-team teaser (6-pt.) with the Pats and Colts.

[tampayay]

I posted this already in its own thread, but I might as well post in here as well to discuss...

My thoughts are going with a 13-pt. 4-team teaser:

SD vs. KC = SD +7.5

The Chargers are coming off of a very disappointing loss at home against the Broncos. Who thought the Broncos would be so good to start the year? Did anyone else not believe that the Broncos were legit until the last couple of weeks? KC is coming off of a win against the hapless Redskins. Bottom line here is that SD is a much better team than the Chiefs are here, even if they are on the road. I don't see a way that KC possibly beats SD by more than 7, I think SD wins actually, but will they cover the normal 5.5 line, I'm not sure. That could be another play to think about.

IND vs. STL = IND -1

Indy is undefeated and coming off of a bye so they should be ready to rock. The Rams are still winless and still horrendous. The -14 line for the Colts is a little high for my liking, but that's not out of reach.

GB vs. CLE = GB +6 (wtf, Bodog has this crossed out now... why?)

Green Bay is on the road here and 7 point favorites on the normal spread. I can see them covering that, but with the Browns at home, they've got to get it together at least somewhat at some point right? Maybe not, probably not. That's another spot where the -7 may not be too big and may be a decent play, IMO. GB is far superior to CLE and I don't see CLE keeping it real close.

NE vs. TB = NE -2

New England is coming off of a blowout win against the winless Titans at home. TB is coming off of a loss (surprise surprise) against the pathetic Panthers, but at least it was within a touchdown, right? The normal line right now is -15, which seems like a lot, but if the Pats offense is clicking now (hopefully they are since I'm a Pats fan) then laying 15 points against TB is no problem as it should be a blowout. How do the Pats not win by 2 or more points? I'm not really sure how. I don't like that Edelman is out though, I think that hurts them some, now they'll have to use Aiken, who looked decent last game, but hasn't done anything other than that.

A little tip: # 1 Do not play teasers if your looking for long term profit #2 Do Not use Bodog when your always eating chalk.

[Underdog88]

Minny @ Pitt -4
This is probably my favorite play on the board. Minny's road games have consisted of Detroit, Cleveland, and StL so far, not exactly difficult. In their 3 games against decent opponents (all at home), they've given up an average of 26 ppg. Only one team has held Peterson in check up to this point (Packers), and Pitt has the number 2 rush defense in the NFL. Favre definitely has the ability to beat teams, but he also has the ability to lose it as well, and as a defense going against Minny I'd rather get beat by Favre than Peterson. Nobody has held Minny under 27 and when if/when a Favre offense doesn't move the ball, Favre starts chuckin **** up. Pitt has won 9 in a row at home.

Atlanta @ Dallas -4
Dallas off a bye, just seems like one they absolutely have to have. I guess in a sense that could be a bad thing for Wade, but looking at Dallas' results and they're not as bad as one would think. It's also a play against the Falcons, who couldn't move the ball whatsoever against a Bears defense that yielded over 300 yards passing to Detroit and 240 yards passing to a Seneca Wallace led Seahawk outfit. I'm a Bear fan and they're playing guys on defense I've never heard of, yet Ryan could only muster 185 and two of those TD's came on busted coverages, and their 3rd came on a shortfield late. I don't think ATL is a bad team, but they go in and beat an SF team playing a bit over their heads, they hold serve at home by 7 against a Bear team turning it over 3 times inside the 10, and now all of the sudden the public pounds them at 67% at Dallas? I'm not buying that.

I think both road teams are the better teams here, and after playing the Ravens ML last week I'm done trying to guess when the Vikings lose. I think Dallas doesn't even sniff the playoffs this season, IMO the Falcons win that one....

[daft_picks]

UD, good points about the Zona Giants games. Personally I am only playing the Giants -7 parlayed with the Over 46 cause I don't see how the Cards score less than 20 points against a definitely suspect Giants secondary. That being said I'll take the Giants @ home versus a Cards team that does often not travel well west->east. Both teams are strong against the rush but questionable against the pass. I'll take the Giants run game anyday over the Cards though.

As far as the Saints/Dolphins game goes it is very hard to play against that offense. I could never make an under play either, I mean hell the saints hit the Over 47 in last week's match BY THEMSELVES! Against the Giants! Crazy. I see this being a closer game than many will imagine, if this line moves above 7 I will probably take the Fins.

Another play I am looking at is Chicago as a slight +1 dog to Cincinnati. It's hard for me to back this up in many ways, I just think Cutler has been playing ****ty in primetime games and Forte is due for a (somewhat) good game and this could be it. I just don't trust the Bengals, they lost some key defensive players and Chicago actually played alright last week they just had some HUGE miscues that essentially cost them the game. Tough choice but if I had to make it it would be on the Bears.

[Underdog88]

Hello all! Have some time this week so I'll try to get involved a little in the discussion....



A couple random thoughts.


GB shouldn't be a big road fave, I don't trust them by any means. Same goes for SD, a road chalk play on them makes zero sense. The Chargers are a slightly above average team. 0-2 ats in the division, plus both wins vs KC last year were by one point. -4.5 on the road begging for Chargers money, but who in their right mind wants to back the Chiefs? Bowe seems to be emerging as the season progresses, he could have a good day. I think for the Ciefs to win/cover, LJ will need to have a decent day. Chargers should be able to throw on KC, over 44 looks like a possibility.

TB+14.5- Patriots off a blowout win, but that was off a road loss and they were in a prime spot. Now right before the bye I'm sure their priority will be to put the game away early and escape with no injuries. As bad as TB is, they have only had 2 losses over 14 pts. Pats haven't won on the road yet, though yeah they will here. Still think this is too many points to lay with not too much motivation. IMO if you like the Pats to cover, maybe a first half, or tt play would be the better option.

Zona- I may be the only person around that thinks Zona has a decent shot at a su win. The Giants secondary to me is suspect as hell. Brees was the first qb they faced (Romo is a chump) and he picked them apart. Zona IMO is better than many believe they are. Giants off a blowout loss which leads many to believe they turn things around @ home this week. Situation favors the Giants, but hell that's why this is a 7 pt line.

Dolphins- How in the world can anyone go against the Saints? I pick them to go to the SB then played against them last week, off a bye and playing in a statement game how dumb. I have mixed feelings about this game. I think the Saints D is coming into this playing way over their heads. Nearly every game the Saints played this season they have been able to jump ahead early, force the opposing team to become one dimensional and abandon the rush. The Eagles had to throw out the run, as did NY. Miami will never be in the position where they have to abandon the run because the whole offense is based around it. Sounds crazy to say this of Miami's offense, but I think as far as matchups go this could be the biggest test of the Saints D so far. The Fins are damn good when they get running, and have put together 2 straight weeks of scoring 31+ pts. Now off a bye and with a chance to jockey for position in the AFC East (they are @ NYJ next week too), they won't be short on motivation. I would think they look to play ball control, but I won't be involved in any under plays in a Saints game. Still mulling over how to play this one...

[DukiesBaby]

Nyg -7
I really love this play this week, u get the giants coming off a really poor performance to a bounce back, and also you get an arizona team on back to back road games, first in seattle and now traveling across the country to ny... Hopefully giants put pressure on warner in the cold, which he doesn't do well.

Dolphins + 6.5
Really like a home dog who can run run run the football...

49ers +3
This 49ers team is learning how to win and no more distractions now they got crabtree mess settled gore back and ur number 1 pick signed and ready, this team been focused for 2 weeks on this game, I expect a big 49er win.

I also am looking at redskins, and phili going over in the monday night game.

[hodown]

Agree with the 49ers, they are intriguing there. As you said Houston is a tale of two very different teams. First half against Arizona they stink and 2nd half they come out firing. With that said I think it's a small moneyline play on SF or no play. Which Houston team are you gonna get? How good are the Niners? Who knows.

I think Miami is in a good spot against the Saints, but the Saints look tough as hell right now. Miami's pass defense is less than stellar, and I think there's better options than waiting for NO to falter. Could be a good over play.

Regarding the teaser, I like KC +17.5 and Cleveland +20. KC is more than capable, losing @ home by 3 to Oakland, 11 to NYG, and 6 to Dallas. Cleveland has been very respectable last 3 games, losing to Cinci @ home in OT, winning @ Buffalo and losing by 13 @ Pitt. The Packers have 3 wins over Chicago, Detroit, and STL, so I think they'll be in a dogfight just to win that game.

[sk35]

I look up the weather in Pitt, it's gonna rain all weekend. The field is gonna get wet and ugly cuz Pitt Panther play there on Sat too. Maybe it'll help the low score.

About the teaser, it may look good against the bad teams. But this is NFL, the home dogs might win outright on any given Sunday, especially when they play division rivals. It also the West Coast teams come to different time zone play at noon trend.