Wild Card Discussion

[Underdog88]

Just realized I never talked about Zona....


IMO this is a classic case of perception vs reality. Everyone is on a GB defense kick, and I will be the first to say they have come together well as the season progressed. However take a look at their road games this season. Previous to last week vs a Warner-less Zona team....


loss @ Pitt

win @Chi

win @Det

loss @Tb

win @Clev

loss @Minny

win @STL


so 4-3 on the road losing to the only two teams they faced with a record over .500 (Steelers & Vikings). The combined record of teams GBs beat on the road is 15-49. That lineup could make an average defense look like the 85 Bears. The Steelers were scoring at will. Minny scored a ton on them. TB put up 38. Even at home the Packers get credit for beating the Ravens and Boys, but lost to Cincy and Minny in high scoring games (31 and 38 pts allowed). I am disregarding last weeks game as Warner is the heart and soul of this team. Yes he either looks great or terrible, but in this spot I think he exposes a slightly overrated Packers defense. At the same time I think Zona's defense may shine a bit in the pass game, really hoping Rogers-Cromartie plays. Many point to the Cardinals weak conference and really aren't high on Zona. I think they have progressed in the run game this season as well as in pass d.



I haven't played Zona straight as I may very well be able to get them at a better line tomorrow (best I saw was +1.5, which look pretty damn teasable). I have played team total over 23, and a prop that they score the most points this weekend.

[FlyersFan]

so tempted to hit team u17.5+100 right now @ Betus

i was looking at that too......i also played (but haven't posted) CIN +4 1/2 & NYJ/CIN Under41 1/2.....


my only concern would be if the Jets fell behind like 13-3 in the 2H and stinkchez had to throw. that dude is very capapble of putting a couple TD passes in the old column to the other team.......i may play that one too.

still not done yet. trying to figure out the PHI game and total. Tempted to play the Over because it is such a whack line.

[Underdog88]

The Bengals have only scored 18+ in 2 of L11 games as i mentioned.

so tempted to hit team u17.5+100 right now @ Betus

[DukiesBaby]

Philidelphia-
IMO the eagles will win this game, jackson didnt do well vs cowboys but its a little missleading, he dropped a pass and mcnabb over threw him twice in that game which if he had made a better pass he was taking it to the house... turnonver on fumbled snap when eagles where driving down field, a wide open maclin didnt catch a ball which was thrown way to hard by mcnabb on 3rd and 5 ... eagles usually have success vs the cowboys, andy reid play calling was way to conservative last game and i think the eagles will show a more aggressive side... and i think the eagles losing that game and playing as bad as they did is gonna help them. i dont like tailing teams with huge win streaks into playoffs... This offense scored the most points in the first half of games this year in the nfl... they cant and will not (w/o turnovers) be shutdown at all... i expect this game to be high 20's low 30's ...


Baltimore-
I may be completely off on my read in this match up, but i focused my fantasy squad this year with the 9th pick in draft around Tom Brady... this offense has not been anything short of lucky and awful.. plus baltimore has a stud in ray rice, and mcgahee aint so bad either... new england run defense is bad.... really bad... with out wes welkface running all over the field and across the middle who is gonna pick up the slack? they are gonna double randy all day if not maybe see a tripple... new england is gonna have a big FAT CHANCE from me in running the football against baltimore... relying on brady's arm with a great check down reciever missing? i call him check down cause u know he sonars on randy.... i feel baltimore will control this clock and if they get a 10 point lead, the blitz is gonna knock "sissy pants" brady out of this game...
i cant trust this 2009 new england team to move on... flacco im rooting for you buddy... and betting on you!


Arizona-
i saw a green bay defense destroy the arizona cardinals.... last week of preseason this year i watched the green bay defense destroy the arizona cardinals.... im confused as to why i cant pick a team here, my gut says kurt warner at home with his offense should put up points... and green bay hasnt shown much all year... especially on the road... but i also saw kurt warner throw picks vs this green bay def both times this year at home... if i pick the eagles game correctly, and the beat the cowboys like i think the eagles will go to the saints turf.... which would leave the other game winner going to minnesota, and i always get these feelings of saying sometimes the " N-ational F-ixed L-eague" and if that were the case all the espn polls and random sport site polls fans have been voting on whether or not they would like a greenbay vs brett favre round 3.... now it may not be fixed it may just be destiny, but it just feels so much like im gonna have to watch green bay get torched by mr. packer himself for a 3rd time....
i will take points over for the game most likely, but i might have to side with the packers here...
as of right now though im siding with arizona cardinals and a home game and there ability to pass rush which the packers offense line cant hold up very well....



Bengals-
I dont like the jets, i am mad that the bengals and colts let this team moon walk right into the playoffs, i wanted to see the titans or texans or dolphins make it.... teams which i felt are more deserving of a shot in this game than the jets... Bengals... Homecrowd... 8-9 in the box.... putting the game on rookie sanchez's arm..... his 12 td 20 int arm going into week 17......
Bengals this year have found a way to win in BIG games... they swept there division 6-0.... First playoff home game in ages.... ya pretty big game... i dont think it will be a high scoring one though, ur getting two of the best defenses here with not high scoring offenses.... My pick is bengals, i feel the public will flood over to the ny jets line and this i feel is the wrong way to flow to....


Good Luck everyone this playoffs:thumbs:

[FlyersFan]

Would lean under as well, but I get scared of these low numbers where both teams can score. I prefer unders when I think it will be a one sided defensive battle. Just get scared of the 10-17 game when someone ties it up deep into the fourth and it flames out. I really loathe under plays.

Udog- i am not a big fan of Unders with low totals like this as there isn't much room for error. But then again, it isn't a fluke that CIN has not scored more than 18 points but 2x in the last 11 games. They have a very non-explosive boring grind it out suck ass offense that has a very hard time driving the length of the field. These 2 teams are ranked 20 and 21 in Red Zone efficiency on offense....the Jets are ranked 1st in 3rd down conversions against (Cincinnati is 15 which is still decent).......i guess you can always say i hate to get burned by this or that.....i mean is CIN all of a sudden going to catch fire offensively versus a very good Jets defense and the best corner in the league? Are the Jets going to recreate the 99 rams under stinkchez? I think the Jets are going to find it a lot tougher sledding this sunday than they did last Sunday. That is going to be one pumped up defense and one pumped up crowd. Not often Cincinnati hosts a playoff game. My ONLY worry is that Stinkchez throws a couple pick 6's.

[Underdog88]

still think that the Under in the CIN game is the best play. 16-10, 16-13, 17-13, 13-10, 17-10, 16-9....whatever, whoever, but i find it hard to see either team putting up points. Revis will take away ocho stinko and then it's the who's not who of receivers for CIN. maybe lavenderiosis coles will finally do something this week. good thing they went out and picked him up.....:ohman:. Lots and lots of punts.

Would lean under as well, but I get scared of these low numbers where both teams can score. I prefer unders when I think it will be a one sided defensive battle. Just get scared of the 10-17 game when someone ties it up deep into the fourth and it flames out. I really loathe under plays.

[BUNK MORELAND]

These are tough games to pick

IMO

[FlyersFan]

I think the Jets/Bengals game is going to come down to turnovers. When the Jets are bad, they are really bad. 4 turnovers @NO, 6 VS Buff, 3 to Jax, 5 vs NE, 3 vs Falcons. If Sanchez starts turning it over early it could be trouble.

i guess that was my point with my last post. if CIN can put the NYJ in those 3rd and longs i think that stinkchez will make mistakes. he was responsible for a good number of those turnovers in those games. he gets rattled really easily IMO and the bengals as i mentioned have 2 very solid corners.

most of these games seem to boil down to the fact that you are going to have to pick which you feel to be true and run with it. example is the bengals game. if you think that the jets can run the ball and stay out of 3rd and longs i like their chances. if you think that CIN can take away the run and make sanchez throw then you have to like the CIN chances. seems like kind of a "duh" statement but it really is the truth in these games.

still think that the Under in the CIN game is the best play. 16-10, 16-13, 17-13, 13-10, 17-10, 16-9....whatever, whoever, but i find it hard to see either team putting up points. Revis will take away ocho stinko and then it's the who's not who of receivers for CIN. maybe lavenderiosis coles will finally do something this week. good thing they went out and picked him up.....:ohman:. Lots and lots of punts.

[Underdog88]

I think the Jets/Bengals game is going to come down to turnovers. When the Jets are bad, they are really bad. 4 turnovers @NO, 6 VS Buff, 3 to Jax, 5 vs NE, 3 vs Falcons. If Sanchez starts turning it over early it could be trouble.

[Underdog88]

And the more i look at CIN the more worried i get. They have 1 solid chance and that is to stack the box with 8 guys and be able to negate the Jets running game on the early downs. Stinkchez has been at his worst this year when they have to put the game in his hands and the Bengals have 2 VERY solid corners. If they can stick the NYJ in a lot of 3rd and longs, i really like the Bengals chances. Jets have a very solid O-line and the bengals have injuries so just not sure.

My initial best play is NYJ/CIN Under 41 1/2 & GB +9 1/2 (-130) in a 7 point teaser.

I think you could be selling the Bengals a little short. Let's talk about the Jets quality road wins...... crickets

[Q-Unit]

Dallas gets RT Marc Columbo back, but I am curious as to how much they will play him? the back up, I forget his name, Doug Free or something has filled in admirably, and I wonder if the coaches will want to keep continuity on the line for the foreseeable future, but its an embarrassment of riches to have quality depth on the line in that regard.

Roy Williams is a bust, sucks ass, and has lost all confidence from Romo, he will throw it to him 2-3 times by default, and he'll drop 2 of those passes. If they wrap up Witten, they will go to Phillips the backup TE who has played solid, but is no Witten. That is if they rattle Romo. I see them going to the run game just as much if not more this game. They have waited for so long for Felix Jones to be healthy and running fast/strong. The Boys have an elite running game, but how much they commit to it has been subject to criticism all year.

That being said, I do not feel good about this game at all, the Eagles are still one of the more explosive teams if not the most this season. Donovan is healthy, how long can they hold down DeSean Jackson (there were at least 2 deep passes that barely missed his hands), and Celek would be the best TE in the conference if not for Witten's consistent production.

The blitzes will come a lot more this game from the Eagles, so if Dallas/Garrett arent stupid, they will keep running those draws they are so good at, keep dumping off those screens that worked mildly well, and occasionally take shots deep.

On D, they will need DE Spencer to continue to get to the QB, as double teams are always directed at DeMarcus Ware. Keith Brooking has surprised me this year with his emotional value, and some of his pass coverages are pretty damn good.

That being said, I completely agree with FF, and think this game will go over. It will be a good defensive game, but there will be some deep connections, and I feel like at least one special teams score from either team to push that over. It's gonna be a shootout folks! (channeling my inner-Lang again)

[Q-Unit]

I can't cap for shyt, but I may just go with teams that show they can run the ball and play D:

Teams that qualify:

Baltimore
NY Jets
Dallas
Green Bay

- Arizona is so up and down, and people are waiting for them to go on that playoff run like last year, but that may not happen? I mean Green Bay struggles on the road, but at risk of sounding like an ESPN ANALyst, this IS the playoffs, and Ryan Grant has come on strong of late. The Super Bowl jinx hit Pitt hard, Arizona may not be far behind, but they do play good D. Running is another adventure, fumbles galore to be had, Edge had one last burst in him last postseason, but they do have fresher legs this time around, who knows.

- New England is too inconsistent on the ground, although Sammy Morris IMO is more rock solid than Maroney, who has to be hated by Belichick by now with all his timely fumbles. Morris could be = Antwain Smith of years back, just solid, nothing more. I agree that Engelman will fill in nicely for Welker, if not same production, enough to take pressure off of Moss. But Baltimore has been through the gauntlet all year, they've lost some close close games to some good teams, I always thought they'd be a handful if they get in.

- Cincinnati was one of best run D this season and Jets exposed them. But it did seem like they were trying for 3/4 of the game, so I wonder if they will reverse fortunes come this weekend. Benson's return could make a difference, and if one of the WRs would actually catch the ball for the Bengals, they could come out with a win vs the Jets. The Jets have a great D, as long as they protect Sanchez, they will obviously win. I just have a funny feeling Bengals sneak this one out.

- Philadelphia worries me as a Cowboys fan. All those 3 times in a season means nothing more than doubt that creeps into your head, and sometimes thats all you need to crap the bed. But I think the Boys are tired of the negative media, and will need to keep this train they are on riding. I did think it was weird as much on the line as Philly had, they didnt blitz as much. I mean I understand they know they could be facing boys again so they didnt show much? but the 2nd seed was right there, and in my book folks (to quote Lang lol), 3 playoff games with 3 chances to lose is worse than only 2. and all at home. Just saying.

IMO if the late Jim Johnson (R.I.P.) was still running the D, he wouldn't have hesitated to blitz a lot more yesterday, he's got all sorts of packages as it is.

just my thoughts

[FlyersFan]

Oddsmakers know this too. No doubt Welker is better then edelman, I'm just saying I think they can still move the ball. I think this over and the Philly over are my two favorite totals, been wrong before...

i am liking the PHI Over the more i look at the numbers.

Also really liking the NYJ Under41 1/2 in a teaser. If that game sees 42+ points with all the running and defense in that game i would be beyond shocked. The Bengals have only scored 18+ in 2 of L11 games as i mentioned. I think the Under34 1/2 is also a great play. Low line but seriously, i could see a 7-3 halftime score and a 16-10 final without much trouble.

[FlyersFan]

Same can be said for the Eagles when talking about who have they beaten. Eagles have no wins against playoff teams this season and 4 of their 5 losses were to playoff teams.

Sorry for so much eagles talk, but thats who i follow

hey daws, first off talk all the eagles you want. Second, maybe the same CAN be said for PHI. The problem was there were a lot of **** teams in the league so everyone had a lot of **** wins, but they were 0-2 versus DAL, they lost to SDG on the road and got blown out by New Orleans at home. PHI put up a lot of points versus garbage defenses this year honestly. And i don't buy into that they "just didn't want to show a lot" versus DAL. If they had beaten DAL they would have had to have played 1 less game, had a bye week and opened with a home game with the possibility of a second if New Orleans had lost. You can't tell me they just went in and didnt' really care. They got their ASS handed to them plain and simple. Now whether DAL can do that again i don't know, but im trying to figure out how the Eagles are now 21 points better than they were 7 days ago to cover that number. Plus these 2 teams are very familiar with one another which makes it even more interesting. I think if Witten has a big game then DAL wins this. If the eagles can shut down Witten then i think that will make Romo a lot more uncomfortable as his only other option is Austin. Which may lead to some turnovers. The Eagles have given up 102 points in their L4 games which is not very impressive if you ask me. Udog may be onto something when he thinks looking at the Over. It is interesting when you've seen 2 games so far with 36 and 24 points and they set a total at 45?????

Honestly, all these teams have big quesiton marks IMO. This is a tough slate of games if you ask me.

And the more i look at CIN the more worried i get. They have 1 solid chance and that is to stack the box with 8 guys and be able to negate the Jets running game on the early downs. Stinkchez has been at his worst this year when they have to put the game in his hands and the Bengals have 2 VERY solid corners. If they can stick the NYJ in a lot of 3rd and longs, i really like the Bengals chances. Jets have a very solid O-line and the bengals have injuries so just not sure.

My initial best play is NYJ/CIN Under 41 1/2 & GB +9 1/2 (-130) in a 7 point teaser.

[Underdog88]

Also ONLY 1 TIME in their last 11 games have the Ravens had a game total end up over 43. .

Oddsmakers know this too. No doubt Welker is better then edelman, I'm just saying I think they can still move the ball. I think this over and the Philly over are my two favorite totals, been wrong before...