Tweet
Had a rough loss and don't even feel like doing this but I need to get a nice card ready for Sunday.
Last week 2-3 plays, 2-2 Leans.
Plays (1 PM Session):
Cleveland +2.5 (L1) vs. LA Chargers (W1). Surprised they're playing again in back to back years outside of the division. Last year was when the Justin Herbert hype train peaked. The Browns were up 27-13 and the coach just let Herbert go for it on 4th down from anywhere on the field. Cleveland answered, but they couldn't stop Herbert to save their lives. Of course the Chargers got killed the week after (I was a sucker for that game). My angle for this game is that Kevin Stefanski is pretty good after a loss. The Chargers were horrid against the run last season, and it hasn't really changed. I'll use my fantasy stats, and the Chargers are 29th against RBs this season. Nick Chubb leads all RBs in fantasy points this season. And the Browns are probably getting Miles Garrett back this week. Justin Herbert still nursing those rib fractures.
Detroit +3.5 (L1) at New England (W1). The Patriots were actually my best play this week, but for spiteful reasons I'm going to take Detroit and hope that I was wrong. Don't ask. Jared Goff has never run a road game with the Lions before. They're missing Swift and likely St. Brown this game as well. Detroit's defense is awful, but they managed to shut down the Commanders this season and that team has weapons galore. New England can only hope that their RBs can keep the game close for them, because the Patriots only have Davante Parker, Nelson Agholor, and Kendrick Bourne as their receivers.
Green Bay -8 (L1) vs. NY Giants (W1) (Europe): The Giants almost had to start a QB off the street for this week, but it looks like Daniel Jones is going to tough it out. This reminds me of the Bears game. The Giants are going to lean on Barkley, who will probably have success like David Montgomery did earlier this season. But the Giants are limited at QB, and are missing Toney, Robinson, and Shepard for this game. And Kenny Golloday. They've only got Richie James at receiver. The Giants are one of the teams my typical system doesn't work with. The never covered last season with a backup QB. They lost over and over again despite heavy public money against them. And they're coming off a win where they barely had to throw. Green Bay coming off a non-cover.
Miami -3 (L1) at NY Jets (W1). Backup QB with Bridgewater, but doesn't really fit the system. There was a time when Bridgewater was very good ATS, but a full season in Denver kinda ruined that. Good spot to fade the Jets, as it's been forever since they've won 2 games in a row. Statistically the Dolphins have a poor defense this season, but look at who they've played. The Patriots, where the final score wasn't as close as it ended up. The Ravens who are offensively one of the leagues best, the Bills that need no explanation, and the super bowl losers the Bengals. If they bottle up Zach Wilson, there won't be much Teddy needs to do. And he's proven that Tua's success had more to do with the weapons than Tua himself. Tyreek Hill still had a huge game last week.
Washington +2.5 (L3) vs Tennessee (W2). Washington followed up the Philly dud with another dud last week. The Titan's pass defense is still in the bottom quarter of the league, it's just that old Matty Ryan couldn't take advantage of it. Treylon Burks is out for Tennessee, but he's just a guy until further notice. It'll just be Henry and Robert Woods out there for Tenn. Washington is at least a team that sniffs the playoffs, though they are usually on the outside looking in. I think a 1-4 record effectively ends their season. Tenn is going to be in the hunt for most if not all the season in that division. A Titans loss puts them only a half game behind Indy and probably 1 game behind the Jags who are the biggest favorites (7) that they've been in probably 6-7 years. Also just found out that Tenn is playing Indy again already next week. A win there and they own the tiebreak. So huge game next week, and a possible lookahead.
Leans (Late Session):
Chicago Bears +7.5 at Minnesota. Adding the bears as a lean. I think it may work as a good teaser buster for those the are trying to tease it with Green Bay.
LA Rams -5.5 (L1) vs. Dallas (W4). Dak Prescott is supposed to be back in Week 6, and I think they make the decision easy to go back to him.
Philly (O1) /Arizona (U3) OVER 49. Taking the over between two running teams. Total seems a few points too high. Should be in the 45.5 - 47.5 range. Arizona's offense has looked pretty inept the whole season. They have been able to score sometimes when absolutely necessary though.
Philly -5.5 (W3)at Arizona (W1). I was going to go with Arizona here, but Philly is on the road, so the line is a tad bit high. Arizona has started off slow every game this season. The difference in the wins and losses is that some teams were able to close, and some teams weren't. Arizona was able to beat the Raiders because they didn't score anything in the second half, and their defense is sub par. Arizona came back last week because Carolina couldn't even put up an offensive touchdown until the game was over. Carolina was only up a TD because of a pick 6. I'm actually looking at Philly's games, and it looks like they haven't really been able to close either. They've had good enough leads that they haven't had to score much in the second half. I may flip this pick tomorrow then. Need to think about it some more. The question for me is whether Philly can start fast enough and build a big enough lead that Murray and Kingsbury abandon the run and force Murray into those mistakes he's prone to.
Switching my pick to Arizona on my phone.
Baltimore -3.5 (L1) vs. Cincy (W1). Last year Cincy walloped them both times they played. Surprised to see Baltimore giving the hook here, even though they've looked pretty good this season. I imagine the Cincy offense is salivating at the opportunity to go up against Baltimore's defense. All this talk about going for it on 4th down because you don't trust the defense. I think the points look too juicy in this case. Baltimore probably wins by the hook.
LV Raiders +7.5 at Kansas City (W1). Another pair of blowouts for KC last season. The Chiefs have looked really good this year so far, except the letdown spot against Indy when Tampa was on deck. The Raiders effectively saved their season with the win last week. They won, but I think they're going to be in big doodoo if they don't win again this week. 1-4 will be very tough to make the playoffs with.
System Plays (1-1):
None this week.
2022 Regular Season
8-7 Plays, 4-6 Leans, 1-1 System Plays
2021 Regular Season
36-29 Plays, 25-31 leans
2021 Playoffs
3-3 Plays, 0-2 leans (I'm not counting the SB props and alternate lines and stuff).
2020 Regular Season
18-16-1 Plays, 18-18-1 Leans
2020 Playoffs
6-2 Plays, 0-1 Leans
2019 Regular Season
15-8 plays, 7-6 leans, 2-1 Heavy MLs
Last week 2-3 plays, 2-2 Leans.
Plays (1 PM Session):
Cleveland +2.5 (L1) vs. LA Chargers (W1). Surprised they're playing again in back to back years outside of the division. Last year was when the Justin Herbert hype train peaked. The Browns were up 27-13 and the coach just let Herbert go for it on 4th down from anywhere on the field. Cleveland answered, but they couldn't stop Herbert to save their lives. Of course the Chargers got killed the week after (I was a sucker for that game). My angle for this game is that Kevin Stefanski is pretty good after a loss. The Chargers were horrid against the run last season, and it hasn't really changed. I'll use my fantasy stats, and the Chargers are 29th against RBs this season. Nick Chubb leads all RBs in fantasy points this season. And the Browns are probably getting Miles Garrett back this week. Justin Herbert still nursing those rib fractures.
Detroit +3.5 (L1) at New England (W1). The Patriots were actually my best play this week, but for spiteful reasons I'm going to take Detroit and hope that I was wrong. Don't ask. Jared Goff has never run a road game with the Lions before. They're missing Swift and likely St. Brown this game as well. Detroit's defense is awful, but they managed to shut down the Commanders this season and that team has weapons galore. New England can only hope that their RBs can keep the game close for them, because the Patriots only have Davante Parker, Nelson Agholor, and Kendrick Bourne as their receivers.
Green Bay -8 (L1) vs. NY Giants (W1) (Europe): The Giants almost had to start a QB off the street for this week, but it looks like Daniel Jones is going to tough it out. This reminds me of the Bears game. The Giants are going to lean on Barkley, who will probably have success like David Montgomery did earlier this season. But the Giants are limited at QB, and are missing Toney, Robinson, and Shepard for this game. And Kenny Golloday. They've only got Richie James at receiver. The Giants are one of the teams my typical system doesn't work with. The never covered last season with a backup QB. They lost over and over again despite heavy public money against them. And they're coming off a win where they barely had to throw. Green Bay coming off a non-cover.
Miami -3 (L1) at NY Jets (W1). Backup QB with Bridgewater, but doesn't really fit the system. There was a time when Bridgewater was very good ATS, but a full season in Denver kinda ruined that. Good spot to fade the Jets, as it's been forever since they've won 2 games in a row. Statistically the Dolphins have a poor defense this season, but look at who they've played. The Patriots, where the final score wasn't as close as it ended up. The Ravens who are offensively one of the leagues best, the Bills that need no explanation, and the super bowl losers the Bengals. If they bottle up Zach Wilson, there won't be much Teddy needs to do. And he's proven that Tua's success had more to do with the weapons than Tua himself. Tyreek Hill still had a huge game last week.
Washington +2.5 (L3) vs Tennessee (W2). Washington followed up the Philly dud with another dud last week. The Titan's pass defense is still in the bottom quarter of the league, it's just that old Matty Ryan couldn't take advantage of it. Treylon Burks is out for Tennessee, but he's just a guy until further notice. It'll just be Henry and Robert Woods out there for Tenn. Washington is at least a team that sniffs the playoffs, though they are usually on the outside looking in. I think a 1-4 record effectively ends their season. Tenn is going to be in the hunt for most if not all the season in that division. A Titans loss puts them only a half game behind Indy and probably 1 game behind the Jags who are the biggest favorites (7) that they've been in probably 6-7 years. Also just found out that Tenn is playing Indy again already next week. A win there and they own the tiebreak. So huge game next week, and a possible lookahead.
Leans (Late Session):
Chicago Bears +7.5 at Minnesota. Adding the bears as a lean. I think it may work as a good teaser buster for those the are trying to tease it with Green Bay.
LA Rams -5.5 (L1) vs. Dallas (W4). Dak Prescott is supposed to be back in Week 6, and I think they make the decision easy to go back to him.
Philly (O1) /Arizona (U3) OVER 49. Taking the over between two running teams. Total seems a few points too high. Should be in the 45.5 - 47.5 range. Arizona's offense has looked pretty inept the whole season. They have been able to score sometimes when absolutely necessary though.
Philly -5.5 (W3)at Arizona (W1). I was going to go with Arizona here, but Philly is on the road, so the line is a tad bit high. Arizona has started off slow every game this season. The difference in the wins and losses is that some teams were able to close, and some teams weren't. Arizona was able to beat the Raiders because they didn't score anything in the second half, and their defense is sub par. Arizona came back last week because Carolina couldn't even put up an offensive touchdown until the game was over. Carolina was only up a TD because of a pick 6. I'm actually looking at Philly's games, and it looks like they haven't really been able to close either. They've had good enough leads that they haven't had to score much in the second half. I may flip this pick tomorrow then. Need to think about it some more. The question for me is whether Philly can start fast enough and build a big enough lead that Murray and Kingsbury abandon the run and force Murray into those mistakes he's prone to.
Switching my pick to Arizona on my phone.
Baltimore -3.5 (L1) vs. Cincy (W1). Last year Cincy walloped them both times they played. Surprised to see Baltimore giving the hook here, even though they've looked pretty good this season. I imagine the Cincy offense is salivating at the opportunity to go up against Baltimore's defense. All this talk about going for it on 4th down because you don't trust the defense. I think the points look too juicy in this case. Baltimore probably wins by the hook.
LV Raiders +7.5 at Kansas City (W1). Another pair of blowouts for KC last season. The Chiefs have looked really good this year so far, except the letdown spot against Indy when Tampa was on deck. The Raiders effectively saved their season with the win last week. They won, but I think they're going to be in big doodoo if they don't win again this week. 1-4 will be very tough to make the playoffs with.
System Plays (1-1):
None this week.
2022 Regular Season
8-7 Plays, 4-6 Leans, 1-1 System Plays
2021 Regular Season
36-29 Plays, 25-31 leans
2021 Playoffs
3-3 Plays, 0-2 leans (I'm not counting the SB props and alternate lines and stuff).
2020 Regular Season
18-16-1 Plays, 18-18-1 Leans
2020 Playoffs
6-2 Plays, 0-1 Leans
2019 Regular Season
15-8 plays, 7-6 leans, 2-1 Heavy MLs