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Another early start. Another painful way to lose in week 4. Just needa start early and put more work in next time.
Plays
Baltimore +1.5 vs. Houston. Thinking Baltimore here or the ML. Despite the 1-3 start, Baltimore is still 4th best odds to win the super bowl. Baltimore off 2 losses, and Houston off a blowout. of Tenn
Note: Baltimore has covered the last 5 in this series, including a 31-2 beat down last year, and a 31-10 beatdown in the playoffs the season before.
Update: This line has moved to Baltimore +1.5 with Lamar out and Cooper Rush in. I really feel like this is an off year for Houston. Rumors of stuff going on behind the scenes. Baltimore really needs a win or two before their bye week and they're playing the Rams at home next week.
NY Giants +2.5 at New Orleans. Giants off a big win vs. the Chargers, and New Orleans off a respectable cover against the Bills. Lean Giants here. Despite coming off the big win, I'm really down on New Orleans this season. Not sure how many losses they'll need to secure the #1 overall pick, but I won't give them the benefit of the doubt to win any game.
Edit: Sticking with the Giants here. I've said before, usually the first time a crappy team is favored on the season, people tend to outsmart themselves. The line moving to Giants +2.5 just adds to the trickery.
Indy vs. LV Raiders. OVER 48.5. Should have taken the Bears this week, but Nail Polish man scared me off a bit. Indy should have won the game if it weren't for 2 big mistakes from Adonai Mitchell. This feels like a game where indy can pull off a double digit victory while pounding the ball.
Sam Darnold and Geno Smith basically had similar situations. Journeymans trying with new teams. Darnold has succeeded, while Geno is failing despite putting up decent stats at times.
Edit: Colts games just keep going over, and it should have gone over again last week if that clown didn't fumble at the one yard line.
Cincy +10.5 vs. Detroit pulled away from Cleveland this week after an early hiccup. Need to see how Cincy plays tomorrow before making a play here. Considering the over or Cincy depending on what happens Monday.
Edit: Line has moved up to 10.5 due to Cincy looking horrid in primetime. Unlike Denver, Detroit's defense can be scored on, so I'm a little less hesitant to bet against them. They may well put up 35-40 pts, but I think Cincy could put up 27 if it becomes that kind of game.
Kansas City -3.5 at Jacksonville. Both teams off statement wins. The Chiefs were +300 to win the division coming into this weekend. Considering it's the Chiefs, I thought that was a little bit high. But maybe the books were pricing in the possibility of a 4-0 chargers team and a 1-3 Chiefs team with the Chargers holding the tiebreaker.
When was the last time Jacksonville had a big Monday Night Game?
Slight lean to Chiefs, but willing to reconsider.
Edit: Chiefs now giving the hook, up from -3. I'll bite then, with Jacksonville coming off the big win at San Fran.
Lean:
Denver +4 at Philly. Will probably pass on this one. Kinda tired of betting against Philly at this point. They just find ways to win.
Edit: Was going to make this a no play, but will throw a lean on Denver. At +4 the line seems a tad bit low, despite Denver looking very good against Cincy on Monday.
Seattle -4 vs Tampa Bay. Will probably pass on this one as well for now. Tampa Bay off a loss after putting up a pretty good comeback. Seattle looking dominant on primetime Thursday until the last few minutes. Baker Mayfield is becoming one of those QBs that you hate to bet against lately.
Edit: Switching this up to a lean on Seattle. Surprised to see it move to the hook, and then past it.
Washington +2.5 at LA Chargers. Both coming off losses, but Washington with their backup. Will need to check in on Jayden Daniels this week, but initial lean is Washington for now. If Daniels was playing, I would think the Chargers would be -3 or -3.5 here. So having the line out below 3 with his status very much pending seems low.
Edit: Was liking Washington in this spot, but I feel like some of the magic is gone without Terry Mclaurin who is officially ruled out. He was the one catching the late TDs last season. Deebo might well be the better player, but Terry and Jayden have this chemistry. And with the Chargers coming off a loss, I don't like the spot as much. Moving to lean, but still thinking.
No Play:
Carolina -1 vs. Miami. Carolina with the blowout loss to New England. Miami is pending MNF. I think this is a fireable offense if Miami loses to the Jets, then Carolina next week. Week 5 is likely to early to fire a coach though unless you've brought shame to the franchise. Mike McDaniel is quirky, but he doesn't bring shame. Slight nod to Carolina right now pending what we see tomorrow.
Edit: No play here. Miami probably should have lost on Monday, but they got the win. With no Tyreek Hill I don't like betting against teams missing star players.
Dallas -1.5 at Jets. As I'm writing this, the Packers are up 27-23 after just taking the lead. Cowboys with the Flukey comeback. Will need to check on Field's status for next week, and see how Dallas finishes up and how the Jets play tomorrow before deciding.
Edit: This is a no play for me. Dallas offense looked really good on Sunday Night, but at the same time the Jets are one of those teams I'd really need an angle to back. Looking at the schedule, Dallas is around pace already to be around their team win total line. They don't need the game.
Tenn +9.5 vs. AZ. Both coming off losses, Tenn with probably the worst loss for a team for a season. This line seems very high. I understand it needs to be high for anyone to take Tenn right now, but 6.5 would have been enough IMO. Will think about it some more, but lean Arizona.
Edit: Line down to 7.5. Originally was thinking Arizona, but will lean Tenn or No Play for now.
New England +8 at Buffalo. Need to be careful with this one. This is typically a spot where I should be taking Buffalo. New England is off a beat down of Carolina, and Buffalo looked very vulnerable this week not covering against the Saints. I checked out the division odds a few days ago, and Buffalo's price is incredibly high. It's possible the Patriots can still give them a scare, but the Division is pretty much theirs.
Edit: Saw some trends that i don't really like in this one. Buffalo is exorbitantly expensive to win the division now, so the price probably factors in them going to 5-0 and Patriots going to 2-3 and second place. I think I'm moving this to no play altogether.
Plays
Baltimore +1.5 vs. Houston. Thinking Baltimore here or the ML. Despite the 1-3 start, Baltimore is still 4th best odds to win the super bowl. Baltimore off 2 losses, and Houston off a blowout. of Tenn
Note: Baltimore has covered the last 5 in this series, including a 31-2 beat down last year, and a 31-10 beatdown in the playoffs the season before.
Update: This line has moved to Baltimore +1.5 with Lamar out and Cooper Rush in. I really feel like this is an off year for Houston. Rumors of stuff going on behind the scenes. Baltimore really needs a win or two before their bye week and they're playing the Rams at home next week.
NY Giants +2.5 at New Orleans. Giants off a big win vs. the Chargers, and New Orleans off a respectable cover against the Bills. Lean Giants here. Despite coming off the big win, I'm really down on New Orleans this season. Not sure how many losses they'll need to secure the #1 overall pick, but I won't give them the benefit of the doubt to win any game.
Edit: Sticking with the Giants here. I've said before, usually the first time a crappy team is favored on the season, people tend to outsmart themselves. The line moving to Giants +2.5 just adds to the trickery.
Indy vs. LV Raiders. OVER 48.5. Should have taken the Bears this week, but Nail Polish man scared me off a bit. Indy should have won the game if it weren't for 2 big mistakes from Adonai Mitchell. This feels like a game where indy can pull off a double digit victory while pounding the ball.
Sam Darnold and Geno Smith basically had similar situations. Journeymans trying with new teams. Darnold has succeeded, while Geno is failing despite putting up decent stats at times.
Edit: Colts games just keep going over, and it should have gone over again last week if that clown didn't fumble at the one yard line.
Cincy +10.5 vs. Detroit pulled away from Cleveland this week after an early hiccup. Need to see how Cincy plays tomorrow before making a play here. Considering the over or Cincy depending on what happens Monday.
Edit: Line has moved up to 10.5 due to Cincy looking horrid in primetime. Unlike Denver, Detroit's defense can be scored on, so I'm a little less hesitant to bet against them. They may well put up 35-40 pts, but I think Cincy could put up 27 if it becomes that kind of game.
Kansas City -3.5 at Jacksonville. Both teams off statement wins. The Chiefs were +300 to win the division coming into this weekend. Considering it's the Chiefs, I thought that was a little bit high. But maybe the books were pricing in the possibility of a 4-0 chargers team and a 1-3 Chiefs team with the Chargers holding the tiebreaker.
When was the last time Jacksonville had a big Monday Night Game?
Slight lean to Chiefs, but willing to reconsider.
Edit: Chiefs now giving the hook, up from -3. I'll bite then, with Jacksonville coming off the big win at San Fran.
Lean:
Denver +4 at Philly. Will probably pass on this one. Kinda tired of betting against Philly at this point. They just find ways to win.
Edit: Was going to make this a no play, but will throw a lean on Denver. At +4 the line seems a tad bit low, despite Denver looking very good against Cincy on Monday.
Seattle -4 vs Tampa Bay. Will probably pass on this one as well for now. Tampa Bay off a loss after putting up a pretty good comeback. Seattle looking dominant on primetime Thursday until the last few minutes. Baker Mayfield is becoming one of those QBs that you hate to bet against lately.
Edit: Switching this up to a lean on Seattle. Surprised to see it move to the hook, and then past it.
Washington +2.5 at LA Chargers. Both coming off losses, but Washington with their backup. Will need to check in on Jayden Daniels this week, but initial lean is Washington for now. If Daniels was playing, I would think the Chargers would be -3 or -3.5 here. So having the line out below 3 with his status very much pending seems low.
Edit: Was liking Washington in this spot, but I feel like some of the magic is gone without Terry Mclaurin who is officially ruled out. He was the one catching the late TDs last season. Deebo might well be the better player, but Terry and Jayden have this chemistry. And with the Chargers coming off a loss, I don't like the spot as much. Moving to lean, but still thinking.
No Play:
Carolina -1 vs. Miami. Carolina with the blowout loss to New England. Miami is pending MNF. I think this is a fireable offense if Miami loses to the Jets, then Carolina next week. Week 5 is likely to early to fire a coach though unless you've brought shame to the franchise. Mike McDaniel is quirky, but he doesn't bring shame. Slight nod to Carolina right now pending what we see tomorrow.
Edit: No play here. Miami probably should have lost on Monday, but they got the win. With no Tyreek Hill I don't like betting against teams missing star players.
Dallas -1.5 at Jets. As I'm writing this, the Packers are up 27-23 after just taking the lead. Cowboys with the Flukey comeback. Will need to check on Field's status for next week, and see how Dallas finishes up and how the Jets play tomorrow before deciding.
Edit: This is a no play for me. Dallas offense looked really good on Sunday Night, but at the same time the Jets are one of those teams I'd really need an angle to back. Looking at the schedule, Dallas is around pace already to be around their team win total line. They don't need the game.
Tenn +9.5 vs. AZ. Both coming off losses, Tenn with probably the worst loss for a team for a season. This line seems very high. I understand it needs to be high for anyone to take Tenn right now, but 6.5 would have been enough IMO. Will think about it some more, but lean Arizona.
Edit: Line down to 7.5. Originally was thinking Arizona, but will lean Tenn or No Play for now.
New England +8 at Buffalo. Need to be careful with this one. This is typically a spot where I should be taking Buffalo. New England is off a beat down of Carolina, and Buffalo looked very vulnerable this week not covering against the Saints. I checked out the division odds a few days ago, and Buffalo's price is incredibly high. It's possible the Patriots can still give them a scare, but the Division is pretty much theirs.
Edit: Saw some trends that i don't really like in this one. Buffalo is exorbitantly expensive to win the division now, so the price probably factors in them going to 5-0 and Patriots going to 2-3 and second place. I think I'm moving this to no play altogether.