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Been a little lazy and slow to put together thoughts this week. Need to get this down though.
Baltimore +7.5 vs. LA Rams. I like Baltimore more than I like Arizona, but I don't like 7.5 at home. Would prefer if they were on the road getting 7.5. Why was Cooper Rush so much better on Dallas last year? Was it the defense? Cuz he's definitely not getting defense with the Ravens this season. Was it Ceedee Lamb?
Or is it a common case of you taking the system away from a QB, and putting them on another team and it just doesn't work? This offense was designed around Lamar Jackson, and Cooper Rush does not have that skillset at all. Baltimore has their bye week next week, and Lamar will be back after. Will they pack it in and hope Lamar can go 9-2 the rest of the way? I feel like it's a must win this week, and even then they'd still need to go 8-3 to finish the season.
Win or lose, I think Baltimore ML is going to be a good bet every week for the rest of the season after this week.
Edit: Will throw a play on Baltimore. Monkin said he's not changing the game plan and that Rush just needs to execute better. To me, that shows confidence in the guy. People thought Rush could be the next Tony Romo, so he has potential and has won games. I expect him to revert back to what we've seen soon enough.
Cleveland +5.5 at Pittsburgh. We've seen Dillan Gabriel play. After all the concern in the preseason, he put together a pretty competent game in London last week. The defense blew the game and the cover last week, but they should have won it. Cleveland is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games. A Pittsburgh win combined with a likely Ravens loss, would put Pittsburgh at 4-1 and Baltimore at 1-5. Pittsburgh and Baltimore play both games late in the season, and I think the division could be on the line. But Pitt could be 3.5 games up after tomorrow if it plays out like it should. That would only require a 6-6 finish and 1 win against Baltimore to pretty much seal the division.
If Pitt and Baltimore both win, or both lose, Baltimore is still only gonna be 2.5 games behind with 2 head to heads. That can be made up very easily.
Edit: Will throw a play on Cleveland. With the exception of Baker's last season with Cleveland, Stefanski has been pretty good off a loss. Cleveland usually covers one game in the season series, and if they don't cover here I've got the next game in my back pocket for use later.
Cincy +14.5 at Green Bay, AND UNDER 44.5. Was really digging the under in this one. I don't think Flacco is going to do much of anything, and Jordan Love is nursing ankle and thumb injuries. From his play last season, I know he does not play well injured. Green Bay will probably try and shield him by running the ball.
Feels a bit crazy that the #1 overall pick in fantasy drafts (Jamaar Chase) is on a team getting +15 this week. However, it occured me to that if Flacco is as bad as I think he could be, that they could put Browning back in again. And one thing Browning is good at is putting up points in either a blowout or in injury relief. I think that's a real possibility here. That's why I'm likely going to lay off the under, despite Green Bay's last game hitting 80, and Cincy's last game hitting 61.
Still looking at Cincy in game where Green Bay doesn't have to do much too much for the win, or Browning comes in for the backdoor.
Cincy is only 9th worst against the run this season. 4th worst against the pass.
Edit: I'm passing on the points. Expecting Flacco to get benched in his first game and Browning to come in for a backdoor cover is a little too crystal ball for me. Will throw a play on the UNDER because I don't expect Cincy to score more than 10 this game. Usually when a team is getting this many points they are god awful, and playing a team that you'd expect to put 30-40 points up. Green Bay can do that, but it's not expected.
New England / New Orleans OVER 45.5. Total seems a bit high to me. But they're both also due for letdowns.New England beating SB favorite Buffalo on the road, and New Orleans getting their first win of the season and first in the last 9 games.
I am very hesitant about taking overs this season. But these two QBs I could see the public doubting to put up 20 each. Expecting the total to hit around 49-50. So 26-24 type game. Or it's going to be 16-13 with a baffling gimme line.
Seattle +1 at Jacksonville. Was liking Seattle more until I heard Seattle had won 8 games in a row on the road. Jacksonville is off their biggest win in years in primetime as well. But I had no idea about that Seattle streak. Line makes more sense now.
Edit: I'm going to pretend that I didn't hear Seattle being 8-0 last 8 games on the road, and pick the game based on the line. Will take Seattle here.
Denver / NY Jets UNDER 43.5. The Jets have been backdooring points repeatedly, but I don't think they do it this week. Europe games tend to go under, especially when the line is in this 5-7 area. I see it 24-13 late, and maybe the Jets score, but they'll miss the 2. 24-13 or 24-19 final. Both under, but the over is likely going to be in play late.
Chase:
Tampa Bay -2.5 (Buy 1) vs. San Fran. Testing out a system here that's 1-0 so far. If Tampa loses, double down KC for SNF. If Tampa wins, KC is no play.
KC -2.5 vs. Detroit. Lean KC here, but not a strong one. Line seems fair. They're saying Detroit is the better team, hence why KC is giving less than 3 at home. Likely going to be a pass.
I will count this as one win if it wins, and 2 losses if the chase doesn't.
No Play:
Arizona +7.5 at Indy. Not looking to autofade Indy off another blowout win. I think by now we know that they're forreal in the sense that they're likely going to be a playoff team. They may feast on lower competition, but they're winning. Kyler Murray has a foot injury and supposedly is on the pessimistic side of questionable right now, though he got a limited session in on Friday.
The Cardinals have burned me more than once with a backup QB during the Kyler Murray era. Colt Mccoy orchestrated a couple of blowout wins. They're 8th best in the league in rushing yards allowed. But you can't get lost and doom the Colts if they're able to contain Taylor. The Raiders contained Taylor last week, and still lost 40-6. Indy is 4th in the league in passing yards, and the Cardinals are the 5th worst in passing yards allowed.
No play for now, but it's under consideration. Mainly because of the Indy blowout win and if Jacoby Brissett starts for Arizona. But he hasn't had much success in spot starts beyond that one game for New England way back in the day.
Edit: The line is up to 9.5 now with Murray not expected to play. The Cardinals always play it safe with him. And I think some video game got released recently, and there's like a correlation between that his play on the field. No play, but would have take Arizona if I had to pick. Indy's level isn't sustainable over the long term.
Monday Games:
Buffalo -4.5 at Atlanta. Was thinking Atlanta, but that would be Buffalo's 4th loss in a row ATS. I also feel the public may talk themselves into Atlanta cuz of that defense, and strong run game which Buffalo struggles to stop, and that Atlanta is off a bye. Getting +4.5 at home seems like a lot then when Atlanta rarely gets a MNF game, and it's kinda the same scenario as last Monday with the Chiefs and Jags. I like to play probability in that case and ago against the last outcome. No Play. Buffalo has their bye next week, and may want to make a statement before their vacation.
Chicago +4.5 at Washington. If I had to pick one of the Monday games, I'd probably take Chicago. Unfortunately, they're off 2 wins in a row and off a bye week. I think I mentioned their team win total was 5.5 this year, and that would put them at 3 pretty early. Maybe they're this year's Washington who surpass their total after like 9 games, but I'm cautious.
News to me is that Caleb Williams was on the Brady TB12 diet this summer. So maybe he straightened up after that disastrous year last season and is taking this more seriously this year.
Baltimore +7.5 vs. LA Rams. I like Baltimore more than I like Arizona, but I don't like 7.5 at home. Would prefer if they were on the road getting 7.5. Why was Cooper Rush so much better on Dallas last year? Was it the defense? Cuz he's definitely not getting defense with the Ravens this season. Was it Ceedee Lamb?
Or is it a common case of you taking the system away from a QB, and putting them on another team and it just doesn't work? This offense was designed around Lamar Jackson, and Cooper Rush does not have that skillset at all. Baltimore has their bye week next week, and Lamar will be back after. Will they pack it in and hope Lamar can go 9-2 the rest of the way? I feel like it's a must win this week, and even then they'd still need to go 8-3 to finish the season.
Win or lose, I think Baltimore ML is going to be a good bet every week for the rest of the season after this week.
Edit: Will throw a play on Baltimore. Monkin said he's not changing the game plan and that Rush just needs to execute better. To me, that shows confidence in the guy. People thought Rush could be the next Tony Romo, so he has potential and has won games. I expect him to revert back to what we've seen soon enough.
Cleveland +5.5 at Pittsburgh. We've seen Dillan Gabriel play. After all the concern in the preseason, he put together a pretty competent game in London last week. The defense blew the game and the cover last week, but they should have won it. Cleveland is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games. A Pittsburgh win combined with a likely Ravens loss, would put Pittsburgh at 4-1 and Baltimore at 1-5. Pittsburgh and Baltimore play both games late in the season, and I think the division could be on the line. But Pitt could be 3.5 games up after tomorrow if it plays out like it should. That would only require a 6-6 finish and 1 win against Baltimore to pretty much seal the division.
If Pitt and Baltimore both win, or both lose, Baltimore is still only gonna be 2.5 games behind with 2 head to heads. That can be made up very easily.
Edit: Will throw a play on Cleveland. With the exception of Baker's last season with Cleveland, Stefanski has been pretty good off a loss. Cleveland usually covers one game in the season series, and if they don't cover here I've got the next game in my back pocket for use later.
Cincy +14.5 at Green Bay, AND UNDER 44.5. Was really digging the under in this one. I don't think Flacco is going to do much of anything, and Jordan Love is nursing ankle and thumb injuries. From his play last season, I know he does not play well injured. Green Bay will probably try and shield him by running the ball.
Feels a bit crazy that the #1 overall pick in fantasy drafts (Jamaar Chase) is on a team getting +15 this week. However, it occured me to that if Flacco is as bad as I think he could be, that they could put Browning back in again. And one thing Browning is good at is putting up points in either a blowout or in injury relief. I think that's a real possibility here. That's why I'm likely going to lay off the under, despite Green Bay's last game hitting 80, and Cincy's last game hitting 61.
Still looking at Cincy in game where Green Bay doesn't have to do much too much for the win, or Browning comes in for the backdoor.
Cincy is only 9th worst against the run this season. 4th worst against the pass.
Edit: I'm passing on the points. Expecting Flacco to get benched in his first game and Browning to come in for a backdoor cover is a little too crystal ball for me. Will throw a play on the UNDER because I don't expect Cincy to score more than 10 this game. Usually when a team is getting this many points they are god awful, and playing a team that you'd expect to put 30-40 points up. Green Bay can do that, but it's not expected.
New England / New Orleans OVER 45.5. Total seems a bit high to me. But they're both also due for letdowns.New England beating SB favorite Buffalo on the road, and New Orleans getting their first win of the season and first in the last 9 games.
I am very hesitant about taking overs this season. But these two QBs I could see the public doubting to put up 20 each. Expecting the total to hit around 49-50. So 26-24 type game. Or it's going to be 16-13 with a baffling gimme line.
Seattle +1 at Jacksonville. Was liking Seattle more until I heard Seattle had won 8 games in a row on the road. Jacksonville is off their biggest win in years in primetime as well. But I had no idea about that Seattle streak. Line makes more sense now.
Edit: I'm going to pretend that I didn't hear Seattle being 8-0 last 8 games on the road, and pick the game based on the line. Will take Seattle here.
Denver / NY Jets UNDER 43.5. The Jets have been backdooring points repeatedly, but I don't think they do it this week. Europe games tend to go under, especially when the line is in this 5-7 area. I see it 24-13 late, and maybe the Jets score, but they'll miss the 2. 24-13 or 24-19 final. Both under, but the over is likely going to be in play late.
Chase:
Tampa Bay -2.5 (Buy 1) vs. San Fran. Testing out a system here that's 1-0 so far. If Tampa loses, double down KC for SNF. If Tampa wins, KC is no play.
KC -2.5 vs. Detroit. Lean KC here, but not a strong one. Line seems fair. They're saying Detroit is the better team, hence why KC is giving less than 3 at home. Likely going to be a pass.
I will count this as one win if it wins, and 2 losses if the chase doesn't.
No Play:
Arizona +7.5 at Indy. Not looking to autofade Indy off another blowout win. I think by now we know that they're forreal in the sense that they're likely going to be a playoff team. They may feast on lower competition, but they're winning. Kyler Murray has a foot injury and supposedly is on the pessimistic side of questionable right now, though he got a limited session in on Friday.
The Cardinals have burned me more than once with a backup QB during the Kyler Murray era. Colt Mccoy orchestrated a couple of blowout wins. They're 8th best in the league in rushing yards allowed. But you can't get lost and doom the Colts if they're able to contain Taylor. The Raiders contained Taylor last week, and still lost 40-6. Indy is 4th in the league in passing yards, and the Cardinals are the 5th worst in passing yards allowed.
No play for now, but it's under consideration. Mainly because of the Indy blowout win and if Jacoby Brissett starts for Arizona. But he hasn't had much success in spot starts beyond that one game for New England way back in the day.
Edit: The line is up to 9.5 now with Murray not expected to play. The Cardinals always play it safe with him. And I think some video game got released recently, and there's like a correlation between that his play on the field. No play, but would have take Arizona if I had to pick. Indy's level isn't sustainable over the long term.
Monday Games:
Buffalo -4.5 at Atlanta. Was thinking Atlanta, but that would be Buffalo's 4th loss in a row ATS. I also feel the public may talk themselves into Atlanta cuz of that defense, and strong run game which Buffalo struggles to stop, and that Atlanta is off a bye. Getting +4.5 at home seems like a lot then when Atlanta rarely gets a MNF game, and it's kinda the same scenario as last Monday with the Chiefs and Jags. I like to play probability in that case and ago against the last outcome. No Play. Buffalo has their bye next week, and may want to make a statement before their vacation.
Chicago +4.5 at Washington. If I had to pick one of the Monday games, I'd probably take Chicago. Unfortunately, they're off 2 wins in a row and off a bye week. I think I mentioned their team win total was 5.5 this year, and that would put them at 3 pretty early. Maybe they're this year's Washington who surpass their total after like 9 games, but I'm cautious.
News to me is that Caleb Williams was on the Brady TB12 diet this summer. So maybe he straightened up after that disastrous year last season and is taking this more seriously this year.