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Going to be making a few picks, but I also want somewhere to track a couple of systems I'm looking at. Just basic system, you can probably figure out what I'm doing just by seeing a sample.
Buffalo -7.5 at Carolina. Buffalo off the bye week. Something tells me they looked themselves in the mirror and tried to fix the problems of the last couple of weeks during their bye. Line seems a bit inflated, even for Buffalo who is typically overpriced, on the road against a Carolina team that's played pretty well this season. Bryce Young is out, Andy Dalton in. Some would call that an upgrade, though Bryce has been playing much better this season compared to years past. Just feels like a get right game to me.
Baltimore -2.5 vs. Chicago. As I was writing this I was thinking only 2.5? Then I checked and Lamar is out again. Surprised to see them still favored. But they are off a bye week. Will give the benefit of the doubt to Harbaugh, but not loving it.
Green Bay -3 at Pittsburgh. Either way, I don't see Pittsburgh gaining a game on Baltimore this week. Green Bay should not be favored on the road here. Also seeing if Green Bay lays another egg this week. Jordan Love was on the injury report a couple of weeks ago, but played. I'm starting to notice a trend here that when he's not completely healthy, he doesn't play well at all, and basically just becomes a glorified game manager. And this carries on for chunks of the season.
Atlanta / Miami OVER 44.5. I think I'm 0-3 on taking overs this season. Some may think that Atlanta is going to shut down Miami like Cleveland did last week. And Atlanta is just going to run the ball down their throats, especially with Penix injured. Slightly surprised McDaniel didn't get fired on Monday, but Miami's schedule isn't easy the next few weeks. Penix is a big play or bust QB, and I think Miami's defense will allow him to make big plays this game. And Miami's offense will show up cuz it's in a dome.
Edit: Penix is likely out, but I'll still leave this as a play. To me it really becomes a crap shoot game with Cousins playing, having not the last 11 or so games.
NY Jets +6.5 at Cincy. Have the Jets hit rock bottom? If not, they're very close. Line seems high, but with how bad the Jets have been playing, and them missing their QB and best WR, I'll take a shot here.
Edit: Looks like Justin Fields will be at QB instead of Huntley. I actually think that's better because a bad defense will probably let him run the ball a lot more with success. The Jets defense has been able to step up at times.
Tenn/Indy UNDER 48. Last week I broke a rule and it didn't work out. I will not take Tenn as a side again. Like the under here. Not really sure why.
Washington +13 at Kansas City. Plus 13 without Daniels? Sheesh. I'll take the points..... I guess.
System 1:
Houston -2 vs San Francisco W
Buffalo -7.5 at Carolina W
Baltimore -2.5 vs Chicago W
NY Jets +6.5 at Cincy W
Green Bay -3 at Pittsburgh W
Washington +13 at KC L
System 2:
Tenn +12 at Indy L
Washington +13 at KC L
Buffalo -7.5 at Carolina. Buffalo off the bye week. Something tells me they looked themselves in the mirror and tried to fix the problems of the last couple of weeks during their bye. Line seems a bit inflated, even for Buffalo who is typically overpriced, on the road against a Carolina team that's played pretty well this season. Bryce Young is out, Andy Dalton in. Some would call that an upgrade, though Bryce has been playing much better this season compared to years past. Just feels like a get right game to me.
Baltimore -2.5 vs. Chicago. As I was writing this I was thinking only 2.5? Then I checked and Lamar is out again. Surprised to see them still favored. But they are off a bye week. Will give the benefit of the doubt to Harbaugh, but not loving it.
Green Bay -3 at Pittsburgh. Either way, I don't see Pittsburgh gaining a game on Baltimore this week. Green Bay should not be favored on the road here. Also seeing if Green Bay lays another egg this week. Jordan Love was on the injury report a couple of weeks ago, but played. I'm starting to notice a trend here that when he's not completely healthy, he doesn't play well at all, and basically just becomes a glorified game manager. And this carries on for chunks of the season.
Atlanta / Miami OVER 44.5. I think I'm 0-3 on taking overs this season. Some may think that Atlanta is going to shut down Miami like Cleveland did last week. And Atlanta is just going to run the ball down their throats, especially with Penix injured. Slightly surprised McDaniel didn't get fired on Monday, but Miami's schedule isn't easy the next few weeks. Penix is a big play or bust QB, and I think Miami's defense will allow him to make big plays this game. And Miami's offense will show up cuz it's in a dome.
Edit: Penix is likely out, but I'll still leave this as a play. To me it really becomes a crap shoot game with Cousins playing, having not the last 11 or so games.
NY Jets +6.5 at Cincy. Have the Jets hit rock bottom? If not, they're very close. Line seems high, but with how bad the Jets have been playing, and them missing their QB and best WR, I'll take a shot here.
Edit: Looks like Justin Fields will be at QB instead of Huntley. I actually think that's better because a bad defense will probably let him run the ball a lot more with success. The Jets defense has been able to step up at times.
Tenn/Indy UNDER 48. Last week I broke a rule and it didn't work out. I will not take Tenn as a side again. Like the under here. Not really sure why.
Washington +13 at Kansas City. Plus 13 without Daniels? Sheesh. I'll take the points..... I guess.
System 1:
Houston -2 vs San Francisco W
Buffalo -7.5 at Carolina W
Baltimore -2.5 vs Chicago W
NY Jets +6.5 at Cincy W
Green Bay -3 at Pittsburgh W
Washington +13 at KC L
System 2:
Tenn +12 at Indy L
Washington +13 at KC L