Not really feeling this week. Dunno why I looked at the lines for college football today and knew what I was taking pretty quickly, but I look at NFL and it's meh.
Last week 4-0 plays, 0-3 leans. Season: 11-3 Plays, 4-6 Leans.
System 1 is basically .500, so I may not reset it after week 4 like I said I was going to in order to keep this simple.
Edit, I'm actually in a hurry on the way out. So I'm just going to pick some for plays and leans real quick.
Plays:
LA Chargers +3.5 vs. Denver. Not sure if it's safe to hop back onto the Chargers train yet. Chargers play KC next week before their bye. I don't see this as a letdown spot considering ever game is pretty much a must win from here on out, especially against the division. I kinda like em in this spot coming in 0-4 looking like a mess, and missing both McConkey and Quentin Johnson. Or they could get thrashed and their season will be over, and they'll give everything they have to the Chiefs next week before heading into the bye.
The problem with this game I don't know if the Chargers covered last week? No? I'm showing closing lines or 6.5 and 7, but I know that line was 7 and 7.5 for most of the week. I don't go by the closing line, I go by whatever it was Thursday/Friday typically before all the late line movements.
Baltimore +3.5 at Atlanta. After getting throttled by the Panthers and killing my teaser parlay, Atlanta has looked good with Penix the past couple of games. Penix himself hasn't been that impressive, but they've been able to lean heavily on the run game. Baltimore is 12th against RBs this season, so middling. Looking at Baltimore here.
Minnesota -2.5 at New Orleans. Were we giving New Orleans and Tyler "Shuck" too much credit off the Baltimore win and being able to keep it close with Detroit? Well New Orleans has lost 2 in a row after their 8 game ATS win streak ended. Minnesota did not look good last week. If Miami had a halfway decent QB and some weapons, they could have won that game. Funny I saw the live line on that game. Typically on the last possession when a TD will win the game, you're not getting +600 on that team. Was still 5-6 minutes left as well. There was time for a regular drive.
Looking, but haven't decided yet. Call of Duty comes out Week 7, so Murray is still locked in for now. Week 7 they play Detroit, so it's not a letdown spot.
Leans:
New England -3.5 vs LV Raiders. Raiders are 4-0 ATS this year. Does New England giving the hook seem high? Or is it justified considering they just beat Buffalo in Buffalo?
Kinda scared to fade the Raiders. They could be this year's surprise team. Maybe the under is the best play here. Could see some dinking and dunking, then bonehead turnovers.
I can't make a play on this. I'm going to have a hard time betting New England games this season because I'm not sure if they're getting "made the super bowl last year" inflation. Them being 3-1 ATS means whatever it is, they've been overperforming it.
Combos:
Makin a note here. Both these matchups have a 1-3 team giving points at home to a 3-1 team.
NY Jets -2.5 vs Cleveland. The Jets looked awful last week.
Washington -3.5 vs. NY Giants +3.5. Jameis Winston had 3 TDs and 2 INTs last week. Kinda like the Jameis of old.
Note that Washington has a couple injuries to their WRs. Diggs is out, and Mclaurin is highly questionable.
I took Washington under 7.5 wins this year, but they only have 1 win and there's plenty of time for Jayden Daniels to get injured again.
No Play:
Colts +2.5 at Pittsburgh. Not making a pick yet, but one of these two teams is going to leave the game being 3-2 and with a solid start to the season. I feel like it's the Colts who very nearly started the season 0-3.
Rodgers has won his last 4 home games though, and 6 out of his last 7 in a Steelers uniform. Only loss was to Buffalo.
I can't make a play on this. Rodger's record at home is nothing to discount, and they're off a primetime loss, and the colts are off a pretty comfortable win. Not a good spot. Pass.
System 1 (10-9):
Philly +8.5 W
Pittsburgh -2.5 W
Houston -6.5 W
Cincy -7.5 W
NY Jets -2.5 W
Washington -3.5 L
Baltimore +3.5 W
Buffalo +3.5 W
Yuck, all chalk again. It is what it is.
System 2 (4-1):
None again.
Last week 4-0 plays, 0-3 leans. Season: 11-3 Plays, 4-6 Leans.
System 1 is basically .500, so I may not reset it after week 4 like I said I was going to in order to keep this simple.
Edit, I'm actually in a hurry on the way out. So I'm just going to pick some for plays and leans real quick.
Plays:
LA Chargers +3.5 vs. Denver. Not sure if it's safe to hop back onto the Chargers train yet. Chargers play KC next week before their bye. I don't see this as a letdown spot considering ever game is pretty much a must win from here on out, especially against the division. I kinda like em in this spot coming in 0-4 looking like a mess, and missing both McConkey and Quentin Johnson. Or they could get thrashed and their season will be over, and they'll give everything they have to the Chiefs next week before heading into the bye.
The problem with this game I don't know if the Chargers covered last week? No? I'm showing closing lines or 6.5 and 7, but I know that line was 7 and 7.5 for most of the week. I don't go by the closing line, I go by whatever it was Thursday/Friday typically before all the late line movements.
Baltimore +3.5 at Atlanta. After getting throttled by the Panthers and killing my teaser parlay, Atlanta has looked good with Penix the past couple of games. Penix himself hasn't been that impressive, but they've been able to lean heavily on the run game. Baltimore is 12th against RBs this season, so middling. Looking at Baltimore here.
Minnesota -2.5 at New Orleans. Were we giving New Orleans and Tyler "Shuck" too much credit off the Baltimore win and being able to keep it close with Detroit? Well New Orleans has lost 2 in a row after their 8 game ATS win streak ended. Minnesota did not look good last week. If Miami had a halfway decent QB and some weapons, they could have won that game. Funny I saw the live line on that game. Typically on the last possession when a TD will win the game, you're not getting +600 on that team. Was still 5-6 minutes left as well. There was time for a regular drive.
Looking, but haven't decided yet. Call of Duty comes out Week 7, so Murray is still locked in for now. Week 7 they play Detroit, so it's not a letdown spot.
Leans:
New England -3.5 vs LV Raiders. Raiders are 4-0 ATS this year. Does New England giving the hook seem high? Or is it justified considering they just beat Buffalo in Buffalo?
Kinda scared to fade the Raiders. They could be this year's surprise team. Maybe the under is the best play here. Could see some dinking and dunking, then bonehead turnovers.
I can't make a play on this. I'm going to have a hard time betting New England games this season because I'm not sure if they're getting "made the super bowl last year" inflation. Them being 3-1 ATS means whatever it is, they've been overperforming it.
Combos:
Makin a note here. Both these matchups have a 1-3 team giving points at home to a 3-1 team.
NY Jets -2.5 vs Cleveland. The Jets looked awful last week.
Washington -3.5 vs. NY Giants +3.5. Jameis Winston had 3 TDs and 2 INTs last week. Kinda like the Jameis of old.
Note that Washington has a couple injuries to their WRs. Diggs is out, and Mclaurin is highly questionable.
I took Washington under 7.5 wins this year, but they only have 1 win and there's plenty of time for Jayden Daniels to get injured again.
No Play:
Colts +2.5 at Pittsburgh. Not making a pick yet, but one of these two teams is going to leave the game being 3-2 and with a solid start to the season. I feel like it's the Colts who very nearly started the season 0-3.
Rodgers has won his last 4 home games though, and 6 out of his last 7 in a Steelers uniform. Only loss was to Buffalo.
I can't make a play on this. Rodger's record at home is nothing to discount, and they're off a primetime loss, and the colts are off a pretty comfortable win. Not a good spot. Pass.
System 1 (10-9):
Philly +8.5 W
Pittsburgh -2.5 W
Houston -6.5 W
Cincy -7.5 W
NY Jets -2.5 W
Washington -3.5 L
Baltimore +3.5 W
Buffalo +3.5 W
Yuck, all chalk again. It is what it is.
System 2 (4-1):
None again.