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Likely Plays
Woods Over Tarver (-115)
Dawson Over Johnson (-360) Parlayed With Margarito Over Cintron (-300)
Gomez Over Cotto (+750)
I have seen Tarver lose, several times. Hopkins schooled him. RJJ beat him in the first fight towards the end of his career. Johnson beat him. Harding broke his jaw. He scraped by Muriqi. Don't get me wrong, Tarver is a bad dude, but his last 4 years have been very inactive and he hasn't fought well at all. This fight is in his backyard, so he is in line for the home cooking, but the line is at a pick 'em for a reason. In fact, Woods opened as a slight fave until early public money started to tap on Tarver. Now, I dont know much about Woods. Sure I have seen him fight, but I don't know a whole lot abouthim. I saw him lose to RJJ, that was 6 years ago. Since then he has beaten Gonzales (hes old now) and Johnson (old as well, but still durable). The only thing Tarver has is home cooking. Woods has to win 8 or 9 rounds to get the nod, and I think he will do it.
Dawson over Johnson. The only thing I can give Johnson is punch output and a decent chin, other than that...Dawson has all the other categories covered. Speed will play a huge roll in this fight. Now, I am only parlaying this with Margarito because I don't feel like eating a ton of chalk. Margarito murdered him the first time (cashed on that) and murdered his last opponent. I personally think he lost against Clottey, but Clottey is a solid and very underrated fighter. No one will give him a shot since he is a no name and so dangerous. Cintron on the other hand, other than beating the undefeated Euro fighter (cashed on the Under) looked like crap against the ex military guy he just fought who had a ton of heart. Cintron's only change is to bang, and even in that category, he is going to lose. So the par looks good to me. Just more confident about Dawson than I am Margarito.
Gomez Over Cotto. Might as well flush my money right? Well, I agree in a way. Gomez has a huge height advantage, and Cotto has no chin. That is ALL I am going off of. Cotto dominates in every aspect other than height and chin. I don't care WHO is fighting WHO. If you are going to tell me that boxer A has a glass jaw and is shorter than fighter B, and fighter B is going to pay 7.5 to 1, i'll play it for a half unit just for kicks. I think the odds of Cotto getting rocked are a lot better than 7.5, so its just a value play here. Could it happen? Of couse. Will it happen? Probably not, but I'm not counting it out.
So there it is...
Lines and Amounts aren't set in stone. Going to play chicken and wait for the weigh ins for these.
Woods Over Tarver (-115)
Dawson Over Johnson (-360) Parlayed With Margarito Over Cintron (-300)
Gomez Over Cotto (+750)
I have seen Tarver lose, several times. Hopkins schooled him. RJJ beat him in the first fight towards the end of his career. Johnson beat him. Harding broke his jaw. He scraped by Muriqi. Don't get me wrong, Tarver is a bad dude, but his last 4 years have been very inactive and he hasn't fought well at all. This fight is in his backyard, so he is in line for the home cooking, but the line is at a pick 'em for a reason. In fact, Woods opened as a slight fave until early public money started to tap on Tarver. Now, I dont know much about Woods. Sure I have seen him fight, but I don't know a whole lot abouthim. I saw him lose to RJJ, that was 6 years ago. Since then he has beaten Gonzales (hes old now) and Johnson (old as well, but still durable). The only thing Tarver has is home cooking. Woods has to win 8 or 9 rounds to get the nod, and I think he will do it.
Dawson over Johnson. The only thing I can give Johnson is punch output and a decent chin, other than that...Dawson has all the other categories covered. Speed will play a huge roll in this fight. Now, I am only parlaying this with Margarito because I don't feel like eating a ton of chalk. Margarito murdered him the first time (cashed on that) and murdered his last opponent. I personally think he lost against Clottey, but Clottey is a solid and very underrated fighter. No one will give him a shot since he is a no name and so dangerous. Cintron on the other hand, other than beating the undefeated Euro fighter (cashed on the Under) looked like crap against the ex military guy he just fought who had a ton of heart. Cintron's only change is to bang, and even in that category, he is going to lose. So the par looks good to me. Just more confident about Dawson than I am Margarito.
Gomez Over Cotto. Might as well flush my money right? Well, I agree in a way. Gomez has a huge height advantage, and Cotto has no chin. That is ALL I am going off of. Cotto dominates in every aspect other than height and chin. I don't care WHO is fighting WHO. If you are going to tell me that boxer A has a glass jaw and is shorter than fighter B, and fighter B is going to pay 7.5 to 1, i'll play it for a half unit just for kicks. I think the odds of Cotto getting rocked are a lot better than 7.5, so its just a value play here. Could it happen? Of couse. Will it happen? Probably not, but I'm not counting it out.
So there it is...
Lines and Amounts aren't set in stone. Going to play chicken and wait for the weigh ins for these.
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