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**akatdrake** · 03-15-2011, 07:50 PM

The more I research and watch fights, the more I see myself sitting back and watching the main event. Rua is a huge animal with strikes, submissions off his back, but Jones is the up-and-comer with all of the momentum. If Jones wins, he's going to be an Anderson Silva-like heavy favorite for a long time! Jones owns a three-inch height, and ten-inch reach advantage.

Let's take a look at the other fights on the main card:

Besides Jose Aldo, Urijah Faber is the next notable fighter over from the WEC. I would guess the majority of the line here is because of Faber's name recognition. Faber has alternated wins and losses for the last five fights, while Wineland has won his last five. The value is on Wineland.

Jim Miller is hot, and a winner of his last six fights. Kamal has won four of his last five (one draw). If you watched the last WEC event, you saw Kamal has like three degrees, a PhD, Masters, and probably another in underwater basket-weaving. He's built like a brick ****house for his size (5'8, 155). They both share a common opponent (Bart Palaszewski) of whom they've both beaten. Miller has gone the distance many times, with the majority of his wins by submission, Kamal's by strikes. I like Miller here, and will probably pony up the juice to win one unit.

**akatdrake** · 03-15-2011, 08:07 PM

Nate Marquardt has had an interesting career, notching notable wins versus Martin Kampmann, Demian Maia, and Wilson Gouveia, but has recently lost to Yushin Okami, Chael Sonnen, and Anderson Silva. Dan Miller is a BJJ/submission expert winning his last two fights (lost previous three), while Marquart has alternated in his last four. I am not a huge Nate the Great fan, so I'll probably throw a unit on Dan Miller here.

Interesting tidbit --- did you know Jim Miller and Dan Miller are brothers?? Both known for a ridiculous work ethic and cardio...

Last (first) fight on the card is Cro-Cop vs Schaub. Schaub has won three in a row, with the majority of his wins coming from strikes... Cro-Cop is a MMA legend but has been declining lately. Beat Pat Barry in the man-love fest but then lost his next fight vs Frank Mir by a knee. Schaub is a beast but probably not worth the -280.

Not a whole lot of value on the PPV card...

**V3r1f13d** · 03-17-2011, 05:05 AM

Wont be catching this card.
One friend is having a bday party and another friend is throwing a house party. I don't even "party" but I couldnt ditch out on both, so I am attending one.

Good luck on your pics.
Jones a 2 to 1 fave? Jeez. It's probably a legit play.

**akatdrake** · 03-17-2011, 08:32 PM

Thanks Ver. Have fun with whatever you do!

**akatdrake** · 03-18-2011, 09:56 PM

Busy most of the day tomorrow, so getting my picks in early...

Note: heavy money coming in on Rua expected up to the fight. Passing on the main event right now, but if Jones makes it down to -150, I'm going to hit it.

Mike Pyle +130

Pyle coming off an impressive, one-sided win to young phenom John Hathaway at UFC 120.

Brendan Schaub/Jim Miller -114

Schaub balls-to-the-wall, wants to put on a show for the fighters. Only caught once in TUF Finale to Roy Nelson's counter.

Joseph Benavidez/Gleison Tibau +101

Benavidez only loss to now-champion Dominick Cruz, maybe only lost one round in his career since... yes, really. Only way Benavidez loses is if Loveland tags him, which he could, but Benavidez won't allow this fight to stay up. Tibau is a mammoth for 155, trains like a monster and reminds me of Clay Guida... scrappy fighter who's heart is in it. Pellegrino coming off a bad ACL tear as well.

Ideally I want this with Faber on my card, but the value is with Wineland... maybe Faber blows his debut?? Also, want to fit in Luis Cane, but we can't bet the whole card, can we?

Good luck to you all with your picks!!

**DukiesBaby** · 03-19-2011, 06:21 PM

o2� +105 rounds

this is what i took for the main event.. it has the most value, shogun's both losses came in 3rd round & 5th round...

i highly doubt this kid can come in here and win this fight early... but i still think he can win.. so instead of taking a side in this bout i am gonna play this fight goes past the 2min 30 sec mark in the 3rd round

Good Luck today!:beerbang:

**akatdrake** · 03-20-2011, 12:42 AM

Nice hit Dukies! I was really surprised that Jones didn't try harder to finish in the first round when he rocked Shogun with that leg kick and uppercut. I was yelling at the TV for him to press it and finish it. I bet you were sweating a little bit...

Some impressions from the main card (didn't get to watch most of the undercards):

Schaub looks like a beast. He's a great offensive fighter, and can take just the right amount of beating. I think he was a little tentative because of Cro-Cop's veteran status. What looked like a boring back-to-back decision was ended in the final minute. I also thought Cro-Cops face-plant to the mat hurt more than the initial right by Schaub. That being said, he's coming off of two wins by Gabriel Gonzaga and Mirko Cro-Cop, and has compiled an impressive record thus far. I think Schaub might get the winner of Roy Nelson/Frank Mir or maybe a shot with Shane Carwin??

I'm so increasingly frustrated by Nate Marquardt. He's good at what he does, but not really impressive at anything. The same with Dan Miller, good at what he does, but not impressive. Marquardt's defense was very good tonight, but his offensive wasn't that good. I cannot decide if it was Miller taking the fight on short notice, because he looked in shape and ready to fight, but rather two fighters that are very close to skill-level. Marquardt did remain the aggressor and was on top most of the fight and the unanimous decision was not surprising.

The other-Brother Miller had a great fight with Kamal Shalorus though. I was VERY impressed at Shalorus's chin at the first-round head kick of Miller. A kick that looked to rock many of the other 155'ers was brushed off by Kamal. He took many straights and jabs but in the end held the second round by taking Kamal's back and looking for the rear-naked. Kamal tired in the third taking a left uppercut, followed by a right knee and the ref stops it. Miller has won his last seven fights and now looks to be part of the log-jam at the top of 155. Frankie Edgar defends against Greg Maynard and the winner gets to defend against the Pettis/Guida winner... who gets Jim Miller? Tough decision for Dana.

Urijah Faber is impressive. The guy withstood Wineland's punches, but to Faber's credit - he didn't let Eddie get off too many. Wineland had a case for the first round as he came out the aggressor, but Faber was able to gain the top and guard of Wineland in the second and third... he pulled a few trademark slams off Wineland's guard, and easily controlled the last two rounds. Wineland's only shot was to keep this standing and though he had EXCELLENT takedown defense all night long, he didn't get off the strikes we thought he needed for the win. Faber wore him out from different angles and the 4.5-to-one favorite took it home.

Jon Bones Jones dominated Shogun, plain and simple. Like I said to Dukies, I was yelling at the TV for Bones to finish Rua in the first after completing the head-kick. Rua was visibly shaken, gassed, and not impressive after the onslaught midway through the first round. Shogun looked like he didn't want to come out for round two and Jones looked like he wasn't even sweating. In the end, it was pure domination. It was announced after the fight that Jones' next opponent will be his long-time friend and sparing partner Rashad Evans, whom Shogun was supposed to fight before hurting his knee. Looking at how impressive Jones was today, you'd have to say he can have his way with the smaller Evans and impose his will.

The only question I have... will this seemingly grounded fighter let the title of World Champion control him? Because looking at the 205 rankings... I don't see ANYONE currently hurting him...

Shogun, Evans, Rampage Jackson, Lyoto Machida, Forrest Griffin, Ryan Bader, Antonio Rogerio Nogueira, Feijao Cavalcante, Dan Henderson, King Lawal... I would guess Machida would be next in line after Evans...

Anyway, 3-0 on the day, +3 units or so. Hope you guys had a good time watching it!!! :beerbang:

**DukiesBaby** · 03-20-2011, 01:05 AM

Ya 7 secs of pure luck... Jon Jones absolutely whipped him...

total domination...

i really wanna see jones vs loyita manchida or forrest griffen or rashad evans

i wanna see him vs a more technical fighter cause if he can beat one of the 3 i listed above than i wanna see him vs anderson silva....

Uriah to me looked like a guy who has not fought in a long time, i bet his next fight ends in the first round...

those are the only 2 fights i seen, but 7 seconds or not ill take the hit lol...

oh and what is randy coture thinking fighting machida? really? retire man already u and ken shamrock should fight instead.. battle of the hall of fame wheel chairs:thumbs:

**V3r1f13d** · 03-20-2011, 02:23 AM

Ya, that was way close man.
I've lost O/U's by a second before. Literally. It sucks...big time.
Nice hit.

Both of you guys came up tonight.
No action for me. I didn't even think I was going to be able to watch the fights, but I did.
By the time I showed up at the house party everyone was too drunk to even care that I was 3 hours late. Ha.

**akatdrake** · 03-20-2011, 10:50 AM

Hey guys.. another little tidbit I saw - in every single fight except for the Pyle/Almeida fight the FAVORITES won.

PYLE as a DOG FTW!!!!!

Dukies, even though Dana has a new money-horse, can you really see anyone giving him fits? I mean Rashad Evans' only hope is that because Jones has a serious size advantage, he'd be tough to use his Greco Roman on the smaller man.

Machida will not pose much of a threat. BTW, Couture has one last payday in him - regardless of the outcome, he's going to call it quits.

think Silva would be ideal, maybe at a catch-weight??

**DukiesBaby** · 03-21-2011, 04:28 AM

Right now silva would absolutely murder jones... Jones get more experience under his belt than i would say fight silva, but Silva and GSP are btoh just so smart and full of experience they would capitalize on any weakness he shows, right now the guy doesnt have many weakness, but he also hasnt fought a lot.. if he holds this belt for like 3-4 tittle defenses than id say he ready to take on the king.. as far as weight goes silva walks around 215-220 he fights in 205 class pretty easy..

my first choice for jones next opponent is forrest griffin.. Griffin is a tough sob and his cardio is excellent and he is good on the ground, he is very well rounded fighter and griffin not the kinda guy you can just knock out, he can take a beating and still come out on top.... i have been discussing all day with my buddy who we think would give jones a good fight or beat him, i think forrest could do it, and im also convinced a healthy rashad evans could do it, evans is take down defence master, and would be great at countering... my buddy went a different approach and said Thiago Silva.. i do not really agree so much but would certainly be interesting fight...

**akatdrake** · 03-23-2011, 11:41 PM

I like where you're going with Jones' next fight. We've seen Jones out manuver and muscle his opponents... what now? Someone with real heart! Griffin would be a good fight, definitely. It should be interesting to see who Dana puts him for him.

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UFC 128: Shogun vs Jones

UFC 128: Shogun vs Jones

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