UFC on Fox 3: Diaz vs Miller

[akatdrake]

Nate Diaz +180 for one unit

I see this as a very close fight between the two. Diaz off a huge win over Donald Cerrone where he beat Cerrone pillar-to-post. The only thing I am worried about here is that Miller will lay and pray all fight long. However, with five rounds, I expect some opportunities to stand and think Diaz outclasses Miller on his feet. We'll have to see how good his takedown defense is and how active he is on the ground. But again, I see this more as a close fight and am taking my perceived-value here.

Other likes: like Hendricks but think Koscheck is determined to get back into the title mix after getting rid of AKA. Really like Poulhares but think he's overpriced for being so one dimensional. Lavar vs Barry seem like a toss-up and Dodson too expensive! May have a parlay later though.

[akatdrake]

Few details from the card... couple of no-plays that panned out well for me. Very glad I didn't bet Hendricks because that fight was way too close to call. I thought it could have very easily went Koschecks way. Also, he'll need to start defending the left jab because that's the second time his eye has taken a beating. Fighters are going to start going for that eye in future fights. Obviously glad I didn't bet Poulhares, and was very surprised at what Belcher did on the ground. Now he's asking for a title shot. I'm not sure if I'd go that far, but he was definitely impressive. I think he beats Sonnen, but not Silva. The Pat Barry fight went about what everyone thought it might. Barry just doesn't have a chin. It's a good thing Dana likes exciting fights, otherwise he'd be out of a job. He'll never be more than a tier-two or -three fighter in the HW division. That Elliott kid took it to Dodson, and I think he gives a lot of Flyweights some fits - unfortunately for him, the only person who has seen all of those moves was Dodson himself. Look for him to cause some havoc in the new division.

Obviously stoked about how the main event and my bet went. I was impressed with Diaz's job on the ground. In the past he's struggled against wrestlers, and now that Dana said he's getting the winner of Bendo/Edgar II, I think he probably gets beat by Bendo but takes out Edgar. Though again if Bendo prevails, Diaz will be a sizable underdog, and I might have to take him on principle - he's just on a roll and has gotten very good lately.

:thumbs: