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UFC 149: Faber vs Barao

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  • UFC 149: Faber vs Barao

    Fight Card
    -----------------------------------------------------------
    Urijah Faber vs. Renan Barao
    Tim Boetsch vs. Hector Lombard
    Shawn Jordan -125 vs. Cheick Kongo -105
    Brian Ebersole vs. James Head
    Chris Clements vs. Matt Riddle
    Court McGee vs. Nick Ring
    Roland Delorme vs. Francisco Rivera
    Ryan Jimmo vs. Anthony Perosh
    Bryan Caraway vs. Mitch Gagnon
    Antonio Carvalho vs. Daniel Pineda
    Mitch Clarke vs. Anton Kuivanen

    First off - nine injuries has messed around with this card, it's pretty cursed and that allows for less and less of an executed gameplan for fighters.

    Cheick Kongo vs Shawn Jordan: clearly a fight/competition advantage for Kongo here (fights vs Barry, Mir, Velazquez, Mitrione, Browne, Hardonk, Herring, Cro-Cop; vs Jordan: Lavar Johnson), and clearly Kongo is the more accomplished striker, grappler, all-around fighter. Jordan has some KO power and even put away Johnson via Keylock but clearly I believe Jordan is a bit too raw. Even Jackson says he's still a couple of years away. I see him as being a less-talented Matt Mitrione. However, Kongo is probably the most pure technical striker in the heavyweight division. If you watched the countdown special, you saw Greg Jackson showing Jordan his striking - obviously not Jackson's forte. In a striking match, I think the line is a little messed up here. I'd swap the lines and have Kongo the fave here. For that thought, I'm going with Kongo.

    Cheick Kongo -105 over Shawn Jordan for one unit

    Tim Boetsch vs Hector Lombard: another fighter coming into his UFC promotional debut, and here the line is completely out of wack. Boetsch has been impressive and is absolutely HUGE for 185. Since losing via armbar to Phil Davis (where has he gone lately??) he's steamrolled Kendall Grove, Nick Ring, and Yushin Okami. Though he didn't put away Grove and Ring, he beat them both pillar to post. Meanwhile over in the less-talented Bellator middleweight division, Lombard has amassed quite an impressive 31-2-1 professional record with 17 KOs. I'd guess Lombard wins here, but the value of Boetsch at better competition warrants the value play.

    Tim Boetsch +290 over Hector Lombard for one unit

    Faber vs Barao: Barao is impressive and a better striker, grappler, BJJ figher, and can hold his own in wrestling. Unfortunately for Faber he'll probably not try to wrestle hump Barao, and even if he does try, Barao comes from Aldo's camp and we all know how Aldo doesn't get taken down.

    Renan Berao -200 over Urijah Faber for four units
    NFL 17: 45-47-2 // 48.91% // -10.12
    MMA: 247-332-2 // 42.66% // -6.04
    MLB 17: 151-140-8 // 51.89% // +5.65 ROR // +42.13
    NCAAF 17: 63-49-2 // 56.25% // +6.80
    Updated on 01/13/18
    ---
    One of my 2018 resolutions: no more action gambling.

  • #2
    3-0, +5.9 units :beerbang:
    NFL 17: 45-47-2 // 48.91% // -10.12
    MMA: 247-332-2 // 42.66% // -6.04
    MLB 17: 151-140-8 // 51.89% // +5.65 ROR // +42.13
    NCAAF 17: 63-49-2 // 56.25% // +6.80
    Updated on 01/13/18
    ---
    One of my 2018 resolutions: no more action gambling.

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